NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

44.3%NC State

55.7%Wake Forest

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADWake Forest -1.3

PROJECTED TOTAL161.5

MODEL MONEYLINEWake Forest -126

Wake Forest

18-17

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 80

Projected Total161.5

Projected ScoreWake Forest 81

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricWake Forest

60.1MMH Power Index57.6

118.4Offensive Efficiency112.4

108.6Defensive Efficiency109.7

9.8Net Efficiency2.7

6.4Strength of Schedule7.2

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

70.2Tempo70.2

55.1%Effective FG%52.8%

13.1%Turnover Rate15.5%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %30.0%

35.7%Free Throw Rate36.1%

6.9Average Margin1.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

NC State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNC State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (60.1–57.6), offensive efficiency (118.4–112.4), defensive efficiency (108.6–109.7), net efficiency (9.8–2.7).

Wake Forest COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (7.2–6.4), recent form (-0.1–-11.9), offensive rebounding (30.0–28.2).

Final

NC State

96—78

Wake Forest

NC State by 18 • 69.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATWake Forest

33-61FG25-53

54.0%FG%47.0%

16-283PT7-20

57.0%3PT%35.0%

14-18FT21-24

78.0%FT%88.0%

30Rebounds27

7Offensive Rebounds5

19Assists8

8Turnovers9

6Steals5

1Blocks3

17Fouls14

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	36	8-12	6-8	6-6	3	2	0	0	28
Darrion Williams	F	24	7-12	5-8	1-1	3	1	2	0	20
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	28	5-8	0-0	2-2	8	3	0	0	12
Tre Holloman	G	28	4-8	3-6	0-0	1	3	0	0	11
Terrance Arceneaux	G	25	4-6	1-1	0-0	2	0	2	0	9
Quadir Copeland	G	24	3-9	0-1	2-2	3	10	2	0	8
Matt Able	G	24	2-6	1-4	2-3	2	0	0	0	7
Musa Sagnia	F	11	0-0	0-0	1-4	4	0	0	1	1

Wake Forest

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Juke Harris	G	40	11-25	3-10	6-7	7	1	2	0	31
Omaha Biliew	F	25	4-6	2-3	2-2	4	0	0	0	12
Myles Colvin	G	32	1-3	1-2	6-6	2	2	3	0	9
Sebastian Akins	G	18	3-7	0-3	2-2	2	3	0	0	8
Tre'Von Spillers	F	30	2-4	1-1	2-2	7	0	0	1	7
Cooper Schwieger	F	26	2-3	0-0	2-3	4	0	0	2	6
Isaac Carr	G	22	2-4	0-1	1-2	0	1	0	0	5
Mekhi Mason	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Cross	F	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.5Possessions69.5

138.1Offensive Efficiency112.2

112.2Defensive Efficiency138.1

25.9Net Efficiency-25.9

67.2%Effective FG%53.8%

69.0%True Shooting %60.6%

11.3%Turnover Rate13.2%

29.5%Free Throw Rate45.3%

45.9%3-Point Rate37.7%

2.38Assist / Turnover0.89

Game Summary

NC State won by 18 points. The game played at approximately 69.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.