Air Force

3-29

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

3.9%Air Force

96.1%Fresno State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADFresno State -22.6

PROJECTED TOTAL143.9

MODEL MONEYLINEFresno State -2464

Fresno State

13-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAir Force 61

Projected Total143.9

Projected ScoreFresno State 83

Team Comparison

Air ForceMetricFresno State

23MMH Power Index47.1

91.3Offensive Efficiency104.9

118.5Defensive Efficiency104.9

-27.2Net Efficiency0.0

6.2Strength of Schedule1.5

-33.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.0

67.4Tempo69.4

49.0%Effective FG%51.3%

21.9%Turnover Rate18.2%

21.4%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

35.9%Free Throw Rate35.5%

-18.3Average Margin0.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Fresno State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY96.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMFresno State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (47.1–23.0), offensive efficiency (104.9–91.3), defensive efficiency (104.9–118.5), net efficiency (0.0–-27.2).

Air Force COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.2–1.5), free throw rate (35.9–35.5).

Final

Air Force

65—74

Fresno State

Fresno State by 9 • 63.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Air ForceTEAM STATFresno State

20-61FG24-48

33.0%FG%50.0%

12-383PT5-18

32.0%3PT%28.0%

13-17FT21-23

76.0%FT%91.0%

37Rebounds31

16Offensive Rebounds4

13Assists7

9Turnovers9

5Steals3

2Blocks3

19Fouls15

Player Box Score

Air Force

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Luke Kearney	F	40	7-23	6-15	0-0	11	1	1	0	20
Ethan Taylor	Guard	40	4-12	3-9	5-5	4	6	2	0	16
Kyle Marshall	G	31	4-9	1-4	4-6	4	4	1	1	13
Caleb Walker	F	20	2-5	0-0	1-2	5	0	0	0	5
Wesley Celichowski	C	16	1-1	0-0	3-4	1	0	0	0	5
Jeffrey Mills	Guard	34	1-4	1-4	0-0	8	1	1	0	3
Will Cooper	F	11	1-5	1-5	0-0	2	1	0	1	3
Beau Becker	Forward	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Sam Springer	F	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Byron Brown	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Fresno State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Zaon Collins	G	32	7-11	2-4	7-7	2	3	0	0	23
Alex Crawford	F	34	8-13	1-4	4-6	5	0	0	1	21
Jalen Weaver	Guard	35	5-10	1-4	4-4	7	0	0	1	15
Elijah Price	F	37	2-4	0-0	4-4	8	3	2	1	8
Jasir Tremble	Guard	11	1-5	1-4	0-0	0	1	1	0	3
Mor Seck	C	23	0-2	0-0	2-2	6	0	0	0	2
Pierre Geneste Jr.	C	10	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Brian Amuneke	G	18	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.0Possessions63.0

103.2Offensive Efficiency117.5

117.5Defensive Efficiency103.2

-14.3Net Efficiency14.3

42.6%Effective FG%55.2%

47.1%True Shooting %62.8%

14.5%Turnover Rate14.1%

27.9%Free Throw Rate47.9%

62.3%3-Point Rate37.5%

1.44Assist / Turnover0.78

Game Summary

Fresno State won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 63.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.