NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

31.5%NC State

68.5%SMU

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSMU -5.2

PROJECTED TOTAL165.3

MODEL MONEYLINESMU -217

SMU

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 80

Projected Total165.3

Projected ScoreSMU 85

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricSMU

60.1MMH Power Index62.5

118.4Offensive Efficiency118.2

108.6Defensive Efficiency109.6

9.8Net Efficiency8.6

6.4Strength of Schedule7.0

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.3

70.2Tempo71.1

55.1%Effective FG%55.7%

13.1%Turnover Rate15.7%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %35.0%

35.7%Free Throw Rate31.3%

6.9Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

NC State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY68.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNC State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (118.4–118.2), defensive efficiency (108.6–109.6), net efficiency (9.8–8.6), ball security (13.1–15.7).

SMU COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (62.5–60.1), strength of schedule (7.0–6.4), recent form (-1.3–-11.9).

Final

NC State

84—83

SMU

NC State by 1 • 70.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATSMU

28-61FG32-67

46.0%FG%48.0%

16-363PT12-22

44.0%3PT%55.0%

12-20FT7-12

60.0%FT%58.0%

34Rebounds39

8Offensive Rebounds12

19Assists17

7Turnovers10

6Steals2

3Blocks4

13Fouls14

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darrion Williams	F	34	8-18	6-12	3-4	3	0	0	0	25
Matt Able	G	22	5-9	2-6	1-1	1	0	2	0	13
Tre Holloman	G	31	4-9	3-7	0-0	2	3	0	1	11
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	28	4-7	0-1	3-8	7	0	0	2	11
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	18	3-8	3-7	0-0	1	0	0	0	9
Quadir Copeland	G	33	1-4	1-1	4-6	10	16	1	0	7
Terrance Arceneaux	G	21	2-5	1-2	1-1	4	0	1	0	6
Musa Sagnia	F	12	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Scottie Ebube	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

SMU

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaron Pierre Jr.	G	35	10-20	3-6	0-0	3	2	0	0	23
Boopie Miller	G	30	5-13	1-2	3-6	4	8	1	0	14
B.J. Edwards	G	33	4-8	2-3	1-2	9	1	1	0	11
Corey Washington	F	27	4-7	3-5	0-0	2	1	0	2	11
Jermaine O'Neal Jr.	F	18	4-7	1-2	0-0	6	1	0	0	9
Samet Yigitoglu	C	26	2-6	0-0	3-4	9	3	0	2	7
Sam Walters	F	13	2-4	2-4	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Jaden Toombs	C	12	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
B.J. Davis-Ray	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Mitchell Holmes	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.1Possessions70.1

119.8Offensive Efficiency118.4

118.4Defensive Efficiency119.8

1.4Net Efficiency-1.4

59.0%Effective FG%56.7%

59.6%True Shooting %57.1%

10.1%Turnover Rate14.1%

32.8%Free Throw Rate17.9%

59.0%3-Point Rate32.8%

2.71Assist / Turnover1.70

Game Summary

NC State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 70.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.