Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

66.9%Arkansas State

33.1%Coastal Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -3.1

PROJECTED TOTAL155.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -202

Coastal Carolina

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total155.7

Projected ScoreCoastal Carolina 76

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricCoastal Carolina

57.7MMH Power Index46.8

113.1Offensive Efficiency104.0

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.0

7.8Net Efficiency1.0

-1.0Strength of Schedule-1.3

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.0

73.3Tempo70.5

52.7%Effective FG%48.7%

19.4%Turnover Rate15.3%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %27.6%

39.6%Free Throw Rate33.0%

5.8Average Margin0.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–46.8), offensive efficiency (113.1–104.0), net efficiency (7.8–1.0), strength of schedule (-1.0–-1.3).

Coastal Carolina COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.0–105.3), ball security (15.3–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

70—66

Coastal Carolina

Arkansas State by 4 • 70.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATCoastal Carolina

23-61FG22-57

38.0%FG%39.0%

9-233PT11-33

39.0%3PT%33.0%

15-21FT11-17

71.0%FT%65.0%

41Rebounds36

15Offensive Rebounds11

9Assists16

14Turnovers16

11Steals9

4Blocks3

19Fouls17

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	35	6-11	1-6	3-4	5	2	3	1	16
Joey Chammaa	G	14	3-8	2-6	5-8	2	1	2	0	13
Matt Hayman	G	22	4-10	4-4	0-0	4	0	2	0	12
Chandler Jackson	G	30	4-10	0-0	1-1	5	5	1	0	9
Jalen Hampton	G	31	2-5	1-2	2-2	12	1	1	1	7
TJ Caldwell	G	17	1-5	1-2	4-4	0	0	2	0	7
Aly Tounkara	F	26	3-6	0-0	0-0	6	0	0	2	6
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	13	0-2	0-1	0-2	0	0	0	0	0
Chudi Dioramma	F	10	0-2	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Royal Blue Smith	G	2	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Coastal Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joshua Beadle	G	34	7-15	0-4	2-2	4	2	1	0	16
AJ Dancler	G	33	4-15	3-10	1-4	4	2	0	0	12
Rasheed Jones	G	36	2-10	2-8	2-2	3	8	3	0	8
Reggie Hill	F	33	3-7	2-5	0-0	7	2	2	0	8
Tristan Thompson	G	11	2-3	1-1	2-2	1	1	0	1	7
DaJohn Craig	G	6	2-2	2-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Nadjrick Peat	F	29	1-2	0-0	1-2	6	1	2	2	3
Braeden MacVicar	F	7	0-2	0-2	3-3	1	0	0	0	3
Jerry Ngopot	F	3	1-1	1-1	0-0	2	0	1	0	3
Derrick Green	F	8	0-0	0-0	0-2	4	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.1Possessions70.1

99.9Offensive Efficiency94.2

94.2Defensive Efficiency99.9

5.7Net Efficiency-5.7

45.1%Effective FG%48.2%

49.3%True Shooting %50.7%

20.0%Turnover Rate22.8%

34.4%Free Throw Rate29.8%

37.7%3-Point Rate57.9%

0.64Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 70.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.