Tarleton State

14-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

11.6%Tarleton State

88.4%California Baptist

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCalifornia Baptist -12.7

PROJECTED TOTAL144.6

MODEL MONEYLINECalifornia Baptist -762

California Baptist

25-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTarleton State 66

Projected Total144.6

Projected ScoreCalifornia Baptist 79

Team Comparison

Tarleton StateMetricCalifornia Baptist

44.6MMH Power Index58.3

103.2Offensive Efficiency106.5

101.6Defensive Efficiency99.0

1.6Net Efficiency7.5

-2.3Strength of Schedule1.8

-6.7Last 10 Net Efficiency11.0

72.2Tempo68.2

49.0%Effective FG%48.8%

19.9%Turnover Rate17.9%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %37.0%

42.8%Free Throw Rate37.0%

1.1Average Margin5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

California Baptist HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY88.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCalifornia Baptist holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.3–44.6), offensive efficiency (106.5–103.2), defensive efficiency (99.0–101.6), net efficiency (7.5–1.6).

Tarleton State COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (49.0–48.8), free throw rate (42.8–37.0).

Final

Tarleton State

55—56

California Baptist

California Baptist by 1 • 65.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Tarleton StateTEAM STATCalifornia Baptist

25-55FG18-59

45.0%FG%31.0%

null-93PT4-20

0.0%3PT%20.0%

5-6FT16-20

83.0%FT%80.0%

27Rebounds46

4Offensive Rebounds20

5Assists4

13Turnovers16

9Steals4

7Blocks5

16Fouls13

Player Box Score

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Andy Sigiscar	F	32	9-11	0-0	0-0	4	2	1	3	18
Cam McDowell	G	33	6-14	0-1	2-2	3	0	2	0	14
DJ Dormu	G	23	5-9	0-3	2-2	1	1	1	0	12
Jordan Mizell	G	29	3-5	0-0	0-0	6	0	0	0	6
Freddy Hicks	G	22	1-6	0-2	1-2	4	0	2	1	3
Kaia Isaac	G	27	1-5	0-2	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
Ocypher Owens	F	19	0-3	0-1	0-0	3	1	1	3	0
Kade Douglas	G	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Matyas Vrabel	F	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

California Baptist

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Martel Williams	G	30	3-10	1-4	8-10	4	0	1	0	15
Dominique Daniels Jr.	G	39	5-16	0-3	1-2	6	3	0	0	11
Jonathan Griman	F	23	3-5	0-0	2-2	7	0	0	0	8
Miles Daniels	G	16	3-5	1-2	0-0	2	0	2	0	7
Devon Malcolm	F	11	2-4	0-1	3-3	2	0	1	1	7
Jayden Jackson	G	17	2-9	2-6	0-0	1	0	0	1	6
Bradey Henige	F	24	0-2	0-0	2-3	13	0	0	2	2
Jordan Muller	G	27	0-5	0-4	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Thomas Ndong	F	13	0-3	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.7Possessions65.7

83.7Offensive Efficiency85.2

85.2Defensive Efficiency83.7

-1.5Net Efficiency1.5

45.5%Effective FG%33.9%

47.5%True Shooting %40.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate24.8%

10.9%Free Throw Rate33.9%

16.4%3-Point Rate33.9%

0.38Assist / Turnover0.25

Game Summary

California Baptist won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 65.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.