Drake

14-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.0%Drake

80.0%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -10.2

PROJECTED TOTAL147.7

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -400

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreDrake 69

Projected Total147.7

Projected ScoreIllinois State 79

Team Comparison

DrakeMetricIllinois State

46.4MMH Power Index54.3

109.5Offensive Efficiency110.6

109.1Defensive Efficiency101.4

0.4Net Efficiency9.2

0.3Strength of Schedule1.0

-11.3Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

68.6Tempo67.5

52.2%Effective FG%54.3%

14.9%Turnover Rate16.8%

27.2%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

34.4%Free Throw Rate32.0%

0.2Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–46.4), offensive efficiency (110.6–109.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–109.1), net efficiency (9.2–0.4).

Drake COUNTERS WITHball security (14.9–16.8), free throw rate (34.4–32.0).

Final

Drake

76—86

Illinois State

Illinois State by 10 • 72.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

DrakeTEAM STATIllinois State

27-64FG31-62

42.0%FG%50.0%

8-243PT12-27

33.0%3PT%44.0%

14-20FT12-21

70.0%FT%57.0%

38Rebounds39

12Offensive Rebounds9

18Assists17

10Turnovers10

4Steals5

2Blocks3

19Fouls18

Player Box Score

Drake

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jalen Quinn	G	39	6-18	0-3	5-7	3	3	0	0	17
Okku Federiko	F	26	6-8	2-3	3-5	4	4	1	2	17
Andrew Alia	G	38	6-11	3-6	0-0	11	1	0	0	15
Owen Larson	G	34	5-13	2-8	2-2	9	5	2	0	14
Jaehshon Thomas	G	22	1-7	0-2	3-4	2	3	0	0	5
Isaiah Carr	F	15	1-4	0-0	1-2	3	1	1	0	3
Braden Appelhans	G	6	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Eli Shetlar	G	20	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	2

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	20	5-8	2-3	7-9	8	3	2	0	19
Chase Walker	F	23	8-10	1-2	1-2	4	3	1	0	18
Boden Skunberg	G	30	5-10	3-6	0-0	7	4	0	0	13
Landon Wolf	G	25	4-5	2-3	2-3	6	0	0	0	12
Johnny Kinziger	G	31	3-14	2-7	0-0	0	2	1	0	8
Brandon Lieb	F	15	3-5	0-0	1-3	2	1	0	3	7
Ty Pence	G	17	2-3	1-2	1-2	2	2	0	0	6
Landon Moore	G	10	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Mason Klabo	G	26	0-4	0-3	0-2	3	2	1	0	0
Jack Daugherty	F	3	0-2	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.3Possessions72.3

105.1Offensive Efficiency118.9

118.9Defensive Efficiency105.1

-13.8Net Efficiency13.8

48.4%Effective FG%59.7%

51.7%True Shooting %59.7%

14.0%Turnover Rate13.7%

31.3%Free Throw Rate33.9%

37.5%3-Point Rate43.5%

1.80Assist / Turnover1.70

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 72.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.