Cal Poly

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

32.7%Cal Poly

67.3%UC Davis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Davis -6.6

PROJECTED TOTAL164.3

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Davis -206

UC Davis

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal Poly 79

Projected Total164.3

Projected ScoreUC Davis 85

Team Comparison

Cal PolyMetricUC Davis

46.5MMH Power Index48.4

107.2Offensive Efficiency107.2

111.0Defensive Efficiency103.7

-3.8Net Efficiency3.5

1.7Strength of Schedule-1.9

2.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

76.6Tempo72.4

52.2%Effective FG%52.3%

19.8%Turnover Rate17.7%

29.9%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

35.8%Free Throw Rate41.5%

-2.9Average Margin2.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Davis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY67.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Davis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.4–46.5), defensive efficiency (103.7–111.0), net efficiency (3.5–-3.8), shooting efficiency (52.3–52.2).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–-1.9), recent form (2.4–-0.1), offensive rebounding (29.9–26.7).

Final

Cal Poly

58—67

UC Davis

UC Davis by 9 • 69.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal PolyTEAM STATUC Davis

18-57FG22-61

32.0%FG%36.0%

8-323PT8-29

25.0%3PT%28.0%

14-14FT15-17

100.0%FT%88.0%

38Rebounds41

13Offensive Rebounds15

8Assists11

19Turnovers15

7Steals9

4Blocks1

16Fouls15

Player Box Score

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Hamad Mousa	G	33	2-12	0-6	8-8	6	1	0	2	12
Jess Esso Essis	G	23	5-7	2-3	0-0	8	2	1	0	12
Cayden Ward	G	25	4-12	3-8	0-0	6	0	0	0	11
Peter Bandelj	G	30	3-10	1-4	2-2	2	3	0	0	9
Austin Goode	F	11	1-2	1-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	5
Jackson Mosley	PG	11	1-3	1-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	3
Jake Davis	G	32	1-7	0-4	0-0	6	2	2	0	2
Guzman Vasilic	G	27	1-4	0-3	0-0	1	0	3	1	2
Ali Assran	F	4	0-0	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	1	2
Troy Plumtree	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Wilson	G	33	8-16	1-4	7-8	4	3	2	0	24
Connor Sevilla	G	30	6-16	5-13	2-2	0	0	0	0	19
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	34	3-10	2-7	0-0	5	2	1	0	8
Jalen Stokes	G	16	1-2	0-0	4-4	6	0	0	0	6
Niko Rocak	F	15	2-5	0-1	2-2	1	1	0	0	6
Nils Cooper	G	23	2-7	0-2	0-1	6	1	2	1	4
Brayden Fagbemi	G	33	0-3	0-1	0-0	9	4	3	0	0
Isaiah Chappell	F	12	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Omer Suljanovic	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.4Possessions69.4

83.6Offensive Efficiency96.5

96.5Defensive Efficiency83.6

-13.0Net Efficiency13.0

38.6%Effective FG%42.6%

45.6%True Shooting %48.5%

27.3%Turnover Rate21.7%

24.6%Free Throw Rate27.9%

56.1%3-Point Rate47.5%

0.42Assist / Turnover0.73

Game Summary

UC Davis won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 69.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.