Portland State

20-11

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

57.3%Portland State

42.7%Sacramento State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADPortland State -2.6

PROJECTED TOTAL156.0

MODEL MONEYLINEPortland State -134

Sacramento State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePortland State 79

Projected Total156.0

Projected ScoreSacramento State 77

Team Comparison

Portland StateMetricSacramento State

50.2MMH Power Index43

109.3Offensive Efficiency106.1

100.2Defensive Efficiency112.0

9.1Net Efficiency-5.9

-5.6Strength of Schedule0.9

0.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-7.8

70.1Tempo73.2

51.7%Effective FG%48.5%

16.6%Turnover Rate14.2%

31.6%Offensive Rebound %25.1%

36.8%Free Throw Rate41.8%

6.4Average Margin-4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Portland State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMPortland State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (50.2–43.0), offensive efficiency (109.3–106.1), defensive efficiency (100.2–112.0), net efficiency (9.1–-5.9).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.9–-5.6), ball security (14.2–16.6), free throw rate (41.8–36.8).

Final

Portland State

74—73

Sacramento State

Portland State by 1 • 68.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Portland StateTEAM STATSacramento State

25-65FG19-54

38.0%FG%35.0%

4-203PT10-22

20.0%3PT%45.0%

20-26FT25-30

77.0%FT%83.0%

49Rebounds32

19Offensive Rebounds8

8Assists12

10Turnovers8

5Steals4

2Blocks1

22Fouls22

Player Box Score

Portland State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terri Miller Jr.	F	38	8-24	1-4	5-6	5	2	1	0	22
Keyon Kensie Jr.	G	34	5-13	0-2	4-5	16	0	2	1	14
Tre-Vaughn Minott	C	27	5-6	0-0	3-5	12	0	1	1	13
Jaylin Henderson	G	37	3-12	0-5	6-8	5	2	0	0	12
Isaiah Williams	G	16	2-3	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	5
Sebastian Tidor	G	14	1-3	1-3	2-2	1	0	1	0	5
Kelcy Phipps	G	15	1-2	1-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	3
Alex Dupre	G	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Mozae Downing-Rivers	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	3	0	0	0
Brycen Long	G	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Brayden Barron	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Prophet Johnson	G	35	9-16	4-6	6-8	7	1	2	0	28
Mikey Williams	G	38	4-15	2-4	16-18	2	2	0	1	26
Jahni Summers	G	29	3-7	3-6	0-0	1	2	1	0	9
Taj Glover	G	24	2-5	0-2	1-2	4	1	1	0	5
Arman Madi	G	22	1-3	1-2	0-0	3	4	0	0	3
Jayden Teat	G	5	0-3	0-2	2-2	3	1	0	0	2
Mark Lavrenov	F	27	0-4	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Shaqir O'Neal	F	20	0-1	0-0	0-0	8	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.4Possessions68.4

108.2Offensive Efficiency106.7

106.7Defensive Efficiency108.2

1.5Net Efficiency-1.5

41.5%Effective FG%44.4%

47.8%True Shooting %53.5%

14.6%Turnover Rate11.7%

40.0%Free Throw Rate55.6%

30.8%3-Point Rate40.7%

0.80Assist / Turnover1.50

Game Summary

Portland State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 68.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.