Toledo

19-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

78.1%Toledo

21.9%Western Michigan

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -6.8

PROJECTED TOTAL159.2

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -357

Western Michigan

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 83

Projected Total159.2

Projected ScoreWestern Michigan 76

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricWestern Michigan

58.8MMH Power Index42.8

116.0Offensive Efficiency106.9

109.6Defensive Efficiency113.6

6.4Net Efficiency-6.7

2.3Strength of Schedule2.0

10.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.7

69.8Tempo69.9

55.1%Effective FG%50.3%

14.6%Turnover Rate17.3%

30.4%Offensive Rebound %31.0%

30.3%Free Throw Rate34.6%

4.5Average Margin-4.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY78.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–42.8), offensive efficiency (116.0–106.9), defensive efficiency (109.6–113.6), net efficiency (6.4–-6.7).

Western Michigan COUNTERS WITHoffensive rebounding (31.0–30.4), free throw rate (34.6–30.3).

Final

Toledo

90—79

Western Michigan

Toledo by 11 • 68.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ToledoTEAM STATWestern Michigan

32-54FG28-65

59.0%FG%43.0%

9-193PT9-26

47.0%3PT%35.0%

17-28FT14-17

61.0%FT%82.0%

30Rebounds36

4Offensive Rebounds12

13Assists13

5Turnovers8

6Steals3

5Blocks3

14Fouls20

Player Box Score

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sonny Wilson	G	37	6-10	1-1	5-9	5	3	0	0	18
Austin Parks	C	31	8-9	0-0	1-4	4	4	1	3	17
Sean Craig	F	32	3-8	2-5	5-6	8	2	0	2	13
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	17	5-7	0-1	1-2	3	0	1	0	11
Leroy Blyden Jr.	G	27	3-9	2-5	2-3	0	2	1	0	10
Mynor Strong	G	26	3-6	1-3	3-4	2	1	2	0	10
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	21	3-4	2-3	0-0	3	0	1	0	8
Will James Jr.	G	9	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	3

Western Michigan

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Justice Williams	G	37	6-15	4-8	6-6	5	3	0	0	22
Brady Swartz	G	27	4-9	2-6	3-4	9	0	0	1	13
Trey Lewis	G	21	4-9	2-6	1-2	5	0	0	0	11
Max Burton	F	26	3-4	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	1	8
Jalen Griffith	G	15	3-7	1-3	1-2	1	1	0	0	8
Jayden Brewer	G	17	3-7	0-1	1-1	1	3	0	1	7
Carson Vis	G	12	2-6	0-1	0-0	2	1	1	0	4
EJ Ryans	G	18	1-3	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Declan Peterson	C	12	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	3	1	0	2
Michael Sulaka	F	2	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Sharod Barnes	G	13	0-2	0-0	0-0	3	2	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.7Possessions68.7

131.0Offensive Efficiency115.0

115.0Defensive Efficiency131.0

16.0Net Efficiency-16.0

67.6%Effective FG%50.0%

66.9%True Shooting %54.1%

7.3%Turnover Rate11.6%

51.9%Free Throw Rate26.2%

35.2%3-Point Rate40.0%

2.60Assist / Turnover1.63

Game Summary

Toledo won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 68.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.