South Alabama

21-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

23.0%South Alabama

77.0%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.4

PROJECTED TOTAL154.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -335

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 73

Projected Total154.7

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Team Comparison

South AlabamaMetricArkansas State

51.4MMH Power Index57.7

110.3Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

6.4Net Efficiency7.8

-3.7Strength of Schedule-1.0

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

67.4Tempo73.3

53.2%Effective FG%52.7%

12.8%Turnover Rate19.4%

24.9%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

39.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

4.3Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), shooting efficiency (53.2–52.7), ball security (12.8–19.4).

Final

South Alabama

92—88

Arkansas State

South Alabama by 4 • 76.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

South AlabamaTEAM STATArkansas State

28-72FG26-65

39.0%FG%40.0%

16-363PT16-41

44.0%3PT%39.0%

20-26FT20-30

77.0%FT%67.0%

37Rebounds54

13Offensive Rebounds21

16Assists22

5Turnovers18

12Steals5

3Blocks3

19Fouls19

Player Box Score

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chaze Harris	G	39	8-17	2-2	12-14	4	5	3	1	30
Adam Olsen	F	44	9-21	7-15	2-4	6	2	2	0	27
Randy Brady	F	30	3-4	2-3	4-4	9	2	4	0	12
Jayden Cooper	G	33	2-12	2-8	1-2	2	5	0	0	7
John Broom	G	27	2-4	2-3	0-0	4	0	0	1	6
Stephen Williams	F	15	3-4	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	0	6
Hantz Louis-Jeune	G	19	1-6	1-5	0-0	1	1	1	1	3
JJ Wheat	G	18	0-4	0-0	1-2	3	1	2	0	1

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	43	10-24	9-22	4-4	8	2	1	0	33
Chandler Jackson	G	37	4-8	1-2	4-6	5	7	1	0	13
TJ Caldwell	G	20	3-7	2-5	3-4	2	4	1	0	11
Aly Tounkara	F	28	3-5	0-0	3-8	15	0	0	1	9
Jalen Hampton	G	35	2-5	0-0	3-4	16	2	1	1	7
Joey Chammaa	G	11	2-5	2-3	0-0	1	2	0	0	6
Matt Hayman	G	24	1-8	1-7	1-2	3	2	1	0	4
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	20	1-3	1-2	0-0	3	2	0	1	3
Chudi Dioramma	F	7	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	1	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

76.4Possessions76.4

120.4Offensive Efficiency115.2

115.2Defensive Efficiency120.4

5.2Net Efficiency-5.2

50.0%Effective FG%52.3%

54.5%True Shooting %55.5%

6.5%Turnover Rate23.6%

36.1%Free Throw Rate46.2%

50.0%3-Point Rate63.1%

3.20Assist / Turnover1.22

Game Summary

South Alabama won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 76.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.