Penn State

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.4%Penn State

77.6%Oregon

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADOregon -8.6

PROJECTED TOTAL150.7

MODEL MONEYLINEOregon -346

Oregon

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePenn State 71

Projected Total150.7

Projected ScoreOregon 80

Team Comparison

Penn StateMetricOregon

42.3MMH Power Index48.9

109.2Offensive Efficiency106.4

117.6Defensive Efficiency110.7

-8.4Net Efficiency-4.3

5.3Strength of Schedule6.0

-20.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.7

67.5Tempo66.7

53.4%Effective FG%49.9%

15.6%Turnover Rate17.8%

25.6%Offensive Rebound %31.6%

34.6%Free Throw Rate36.9%

-5.7Average Margin-2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Oregon HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMOregon holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.9–42.3), defensive efficiency (110.7–117.6), net efficiency (-4.3–-8.4), strength of schedule (6.0–5.3).

Penn State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (109.2–106.4), shooting efficiency (53.4–49.9), ball security (15.6–17.8).

Final

Penn State

72—83

Oregon

Oregon by 11 • 65.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Penn StateTEAM STATOregon

23-55FG24-48

42.0%FG%50.0%

6-213PT14-27

29.0%3PT%52.0%

20-24FT21-25

83.0%FT%84.0%

27Rebounds32

10Offensive Rebounds9

8Assists18

9Turnovers15

9Steals4

1Blocks7

20Fouls18

Player Box Score

Penn State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kayden Mingo	G	34	9-13	2-2	4-6	1	2	2	0	24
Josh Reed	F	34	2-7	1-4	8-10	3	1	1	0	13
Freddie Dilione V	G	27	4-11	0-2	2-2	1	1	3	1	10
Dominick Stewart	G	27	3-8	2-5	0-0	3	2	3	0	8
Ivan Juric	F	26	3-7	0-3	2-2	5	0	0	0	8
Eli Rice	G	22	1-6	1-5	4-4	4	0	0	0	7
Melih Tunca	G	14	1-3	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Saša Ciani	F	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Mason Blackwood	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Justin Houser	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Oregon

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Takai Simpkins	G	35	5-9	4-5	8-8	5	2	0	0	22
Nate Bittle	C	34	6-9	2-3	8-11	7	5	0	2	22
Dezdrick Lindsay	F	27	6-10	4-8	0-0	1	5	2	0	16
Kwame Evans Jr.	F	33	2-7	0-3	2-2	9	1	0	3	6
Jamari Phillips	G	9	2-3	2-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	6
Wei Lin	G	21	1-4	1-2	2-2	2	2	1	0	5
Sean Stewart	F	22	1-3	0-0	1-2	2	1	1	2	3
Drew Carter	G	19	1-3	1-3	0-0	2	2	0	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

65.7Possessions65.7

109.6Offensive Efficiency126.3

126.3Defensive Efficiency109.6

-16.7Net Efficiency16.7

47.3%Effective FG%64.6%

54.2%True Shooting %69.3%

13.8%Turnover Rate22.8%

43.6%Free Throw Rate52.1%

38.2%3-Point Rate56.3%

0.89Assist / Turnover1.20

Game Summary

Oregon won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 65.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.