Tarleton State

14-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

43.4%Tarleton State

56.6%Abilene Christian

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAbilene Christian -2.0

PROJECTED TOTAL146.2

MODEL MONEYLINEAbilene Christian -130

Abilene Christian

14-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTarleton State 72

Projected Total146.2

Projected ScoreAbilene Christian 74

Team Comparison

Tarleton StateMetricAbilene Christian

44.6MMH Power Index42.4

103.2Offensive Efficiency101.1

101.6Defensive Efficiency104.1

1.6Net Efficiency-3.0

-2.3Strength of Schedule-1.4

-6.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.3

72.2Tempo69.6

49.0%Effective FG%48.9%

19.9%Turnover Rate20.6%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %32.4%

42.8%Free Throw Rate42.0%

1.1Average Margin-2.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Tarleton State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY56.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTarleton State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.6–42.4), offensive efficiency (103.2–101.1), defensive efficiency (101.6–104.1), net efficiency (1.6–-3.0).

Abilene Christian COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-2.3), recent form (-5.3–-6.7), offensive rebounding (32.4–31.8).

Final

Tarleton State

59—73

Abilene Christian

Abilene Christian by 14 • 70.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Tarleton StateTEAM STATAbilene Christian

22-47FG20-47

47.0%FG%43.0%

4-123PT8-23

33.0%3PT%35.0%

11-20FT25-31

55.0%FT%81.0%

24Rebounds37

7Offensive Rebounds14

11Assists13

21Turnovers22

9Steals10

6Blocks3

21Fouls18

Player Box Score

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kade Douglas	G	29	4-6	3-4	2-2	3	0	1	0	13
Jordan Mizell	G	38	5-11	0-1	2-2	3	2	1	2	12
Andy Sigiscar	F	32	5-8	0-0	2-6	2	0	2	3	12
DJ Dormu	G	32	4-12	1-5	1-4	2	6	3	0	10
Freddy Hicks	G	21	1-2	0-0	3-4	3	2	1	0	5
Cameron Thomas	G	5	2-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Ocypher Owens	F	14	1-5	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Damion Porter Jr.	G	16	0-1	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	1
Kaia Isaac	G	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Matyas Vrabel	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0

Abilene Christian

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Bradyn Hubbard	F	31	5-11	2-6	7-8	6	1	2	0	19
Zy Wright	G	31	3-8	2-4	9-9	4	0	2	1	17
Cbo Newton	G	22	3-6	2-4	7-8	3	1	2	0	15
Joseph Venzant	G	22	4-5	1-1	0-0	7	1	1	2	9
Cade Hornecker	F	21	3-3	0-0	0-0	4	1	1	0	6
Yaniel Rivera	G	26	2-9	1-6	0-2	0	6	0	0	5
Ma'Shy Hill	F	10	0-1	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Rich Smith	G	27	0-3	0-1	0-2	3	3	2	0	0
Christian Alston	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Tylan Lewis	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.1Possessions70.1

84.2Offensive Efficiency104.1

104.1Defensive Efficiency84.2

-20.0Net Efficiency20.0

51.1%Effective FG%51.1%

52.2%True Shooting %59.1%

29.8%Turnover Rate31.6%

42.6%Free Throw Rate66.0%

25.5%3-Point Rate48.9%

0.52Assist / Turnover0.59

Game Summary

Abilene Christian won by 14 points. The game played at approximately 70.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.