Northern Illinois

9-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

5.8%Northern Illinois

94.2%Buffalo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBuffalo -17.5

PROJECTED TOTAL153.0

MODEL MONEYLINEBuffalo -1624

Buffalo

17-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 68

Projected Total153.0

Projected ScoreBuffalo 85

Team Comparison

Northern IllinoisMetricBuffalo

29.2MMH Power Index49.7

99.7Offensive Efficiency114.9

111.6Defensive Efficiency112.2

-11.9Net Efficiency2.7

-2.1Strength of Schedule0.0

-28.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.9

69.7Tempo67.9

48.5%Effective FG%56.1%

21.3%Turnover Rate16.1%

31.7%Offensive Rebound %27.6%

39.6%Free Throw Rate40.4%

-8.3Average Margin1.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Buffalo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY94.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBuffalo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.7–29.2), offensive efficiency (114.9–99.7), net efficiency (2.7–-11.9), strength of schedule (0.0–-2.1).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (111.6–112.2), offensive rebounding (31.7–27.6).

Final

Northern Illinois

72—70

Buffalo

Northern Illinois by 2 • 66.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern IllinoisTEAM STATBuffalo

24-50FG25-54

48.0%FG%46.0%

13-283PT8-22

46.0%3PT%36.0%

11-15FT12-17

73.0%FT%71.0%

35Rebounds25

8Offensive Rebounds5

19Assists11

17Turnovers10

5Steals8

3Blocks4

16Fouls14

Player Box Score

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Gianni Cobb	G	37	7-14	4-8	5-6	3	3	1	0	23
Dylan Ducommun	G	37	4-14	4-11	2-2	2	10	1	0	14
Taj Walters	G	38	4-9	2-3	1-1	8	1	3	1	11
Makhai Valentine	G	34	3-5	3-5	2-4	7	2	0	0	11
Gustav Winther	F	20	5-5	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	2	10
Hassan Washington	F	21	1-2	0-0	0-0	5	1	0	0	2
Daemar Kelly	G	13	0-1	0-1	1-2	2	1	0	0	1

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Angelo Brizzi	G	37	9-18	1-5	6-7	6	0	1	0	25
Ryan Sabol	G	39	8-16	6-11	2-3	3	1	0	0	24
Tim Oboh	C	21	2-5	0-0	4-6	5	0	2	3	8
Derrick Talton Jr.	G	40	3-7	0-0	0-0	2	3	2	0	6
Ezra McKenna	F	18	2-4	0-2	0-0	6	2	0	1	4
Noah Batchelor	G	35	1-4	1-4	0-1	1	1	2	0	3
Kyle Jones	G	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	4	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.6Possessions66.6

108.1Offensive Efficiency105.1

105.1Defensive Efficiency108.1

3.0Net Efficiency-3.0

61.0%Effective FG%53.7%

63.0%True Shooting %56.4%

25.7%Turnover Rate14.9%

30.0%Free Throw Rate31.5%

56.0%3-Point Rate40.7%

1.12Assist / Turnover1.10

Game Summary

Northern Illinois won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 66.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.