Murray State

20-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

35.7%Murray State

64.3%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -5.4

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -180

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMurray State 75

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreIllinois State 81

Team Comparison

Murray StateMetricIllinois State

53.6MMH Power Index54.3

115.0Offensive Efficiency110.6

111.0Defensive Efficiency101.4

4.0Net Efficiency9.2

3.5Strength of Schedule1.0

-9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

72.3Tempo67.5

54.0%Effective FG%54.3%

16.3%Turnover Rate16.8%

32.7%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

39.1%Free Throw Rate32.0%

2.9Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY64.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–53.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–111.0), net efficiency (9.2–4.0), recent form (-4.4–-9.5).

Murray State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (115.0–110.6), strength of schedule (3.5–1.0), ball security (16.3–16.8).

Final

Murray State

61—78

Illinois State

Illinois State by 17 • 65.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Murray StateTEAM STATIllinois State

24-57FG32-58

42.0%FG%55.0%

5-203PT9-21

25.0%3PT%43.0%

8-14FT5-11

57.0%FT%45.0%

26Rebounds38

11Offensive Rebounds15

10Assists16

12Turnovers17

8Steals8

3Blocks1

12Fouls14

Player Box Score

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Roman Domon	G	35	5-13	2-4	6-8	3	0	1	0	18
Fred King	C	23	7-8	0-0	0-0	6	1	0	2	14
Javon Jackson	G	32	3-11	0-3	0-0	1	1	4	0	6
KJ Tenner	G	19	2-5	1-2	1-4	2	4	0	0	6
Layne Taylor	G	22	2-5	1-3	0-0	2	2	1	0	5
Brayden Shorter	G	13	2-3	1-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	5
JJ Traynor	F	25	1-6	0-4	1-2	1	0	0	0	3
Mason Miller	F	15	1-5	0-2	0-0	4	1	1	0	2
Brock Vice	F	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	2
Mathis Courbon	G	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Dylan Anderson	C	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	27	10-16	1-3	1-2	5	4	4	1	22
Ty Pence	G	24	6-8	3-4	0-1	2	3	1	0	15
Landon Wolf	G	25	5-6	2-2	0-0	6	1	0	0	12
Johnny Kinziger	G	28	2-6	2-4	1-2	2	3	1	0	7
Mason Klabo	G	22	2-5	0-1	3-4	3	0	1	0	7
Landon Moore	G	17	3-6	0-3	0-2	3	2	0	0	6
Boden Skunberg	G	27	2-5	1-2	0-0	4	2	0	0	5
Brandon Lieb	F	16	2-4	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	0	4
Jack Daugherty	F	13	0-2	0-2	0-0	3	0	1	0	0
Ty Blake	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.0Possessions65.0

93.8Offensive Efficiency120.0

120.0Defensive Efficiency93.8

-26.2Net Efficiency26.2

46.5%Effective FG%62.9%

47.9%True Shooting %61.7%

18.6%Turnover Rate26.1%

24.6%Free Throw Rate19.0%

35.1%3-Point Rate36.2%

0.83Assist / Turnover0.94

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 17 points. The game played at approximately 65.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.