Incarnate Word

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

46.5%Incarnate Word

53.5%Northwestern State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthwestern State -1.5

PROJECTED TOTAL141.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorthwestern State -115

Northwestern State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIncarnate Word 70

Projected Total141.6

Projected ScoreNorthwestern State 72

Team Comparison

Incarnate WordMetricNorthwestern State

44.6MMH Power Index41.3

112.0Offensive Efficiency104.0

111.2Defensive Efficiency109.0

0.8Net Efficiency-5.0

-3.6Strength of Schedule-1.6

-8.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.9

66.3Tempo63.6

52.2%Effective FG%49.5%

16.8%Turnover Rate17.6%

34.4%Offensive Rebound %27.1%

34.0%Free Throw Rate41.2%

0.5Average Margin-3.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Incarnate Word HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIncarnate Word holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.6–41.3), offensive efficiency (112.0–104.0), net efficiency (0.8–-5.0), shooting efficiency (52.2–49.5).

Northwestern State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (109.0–111.2), strength of schedule (-1.6–-3.6), recent form (-4.9–-8.5).

Final

Incarnate Word

49—54

Northwestern State

Northwestern State by 5 • 60.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Incarnate WordTEAM STATNorthwestern State

17-51FG18-49

33.0%FG%37.0%

5-193PT4-14

26.0%3PT%29.0%

10-15FT14-19

67.0%FT%74.0%

35Rebounds33

9Offensive Rebounds7

8Assists7

11Turnovers9

7Steals2

1Blocks4

16Fouls15

Player Box Score

Incarnate Word

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Davion Bailey	G	40	7-21	3-10	4-7	10	5	2	0	21
Harold Woods	G	38	4-6	1-2	2-2	9	1	3	0	11
Love Bettis	G	40	3-8	0-0	2-2	0	1	1	0	8
Tahj Staveskie	G	40	1-10	1-7	0-0	4	1	1	0	3
Lewis Rowe	C	8	1-1	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	3
Marcus Glover	F	13	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Mihael Tomic	G	18	0-2	0-0	1-2	5	0	0	1	1
Harrison Reede	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northwestern State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Micah Thomas	G	38	7-17	2-4	2-2	6	0	0	0	18
Willie Williams	F	35	7-12	0-0	1-2	4	1	0	1	15
Chip Brunt	G	19	2-2	2-2	2-2	3	0	0	2	8
Kordrick Turner	F	13	0-0	0-0	5-6	1	0	0	0	5
Chris Mubiru	G	35	0-5	0-4	4-5	9	2	0	1	4
Izzy Miles	G	27	2-7	0-2	0-0	3	1	1	0	4
CJ Larry	PG	26	0-4	0-0	0-2	1	2	1	0	0
Landyn Jumawan	G	7	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

60.1Possessions60.1

81.5Offensive Efficiency89.9

89.9Defensive Efficiency81.5

-8.3Net Efficiency8.3

38.2%Effective FG%40.8%

42.2%True Shooting %46.5%

18.3%Turnover Rate15.0%

29.4%Free Throw Rate38.8%

37.3%3-Point Rate28.6%

0.73Assist / Turnover0.78

Game Summary

Northwestern State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 60.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.