NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.4%NC State

81.6%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -10.0

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -443

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreVirginia 84

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricVirginia

60.1MMH Power Index68.9

118.4Offensive Efficiency119.0

108.6Defensive Efficiency101.8

9.8Net Efficiency17.2

6.4Strength of Schedule5.2

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

70.2Tempo67.6

55.1%Effective FG%55.0%

13.1%Turnover Rate16.0%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

35.7%Free Throw Rate33.2%

6.9Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–60.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.4), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.6), net efficiency (17.2–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–5.2), shooting efficiency (55.1–55.0), ball security (13.1–16.0).

Final

NC State

61—90

Virginia

Virginia by 29 • 70.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATVirginia

20-68FG31-58

29.0%FG%53.0%

9-333PT12-26

27.0%3PT%46.0%

12-15FT16-18

80.0%FT%89.0%

36Rebounds40

16Offensive Rebounds7

14Assists17

10Turnovers12

8Steals7

6Blocks12

15Fouls15

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	29	6-16	3-12	7-7	6	1	0	0	22
Darrion Williams	F	35	5-12	3-6	1-2	2	3	2	2	14
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	33	4-10	0-0	3-5	7	1	0	2	11
Tre Holloman	G	30	2-8	2-4	0-0	4	2	2	0	6
Quadir Copeland	G	23	1-5	0-1	1-1	1	5	1	1	3
Matt Able	G	21	1-9	1-7	0-0	3	0	2	1	3
Terrance Arceneaux	G	20	1-6	0-3	0-0	4	2	1	0	2
Musa Sagnia	F	9	0-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Thijs De Ridder	F	26	7-10	1-2	4-4	4	2	2	0	19
Sam Lewis	G	26	7-11	2-4	0-1	3	1	1	0	16
Jacari White	G	20	4-6	4-5	3-3	4	0	0	0	15
Malik Thomas	G	19	3-8	1-5	5-6	5	3	0	0	12
Chance Mallory	G	19	3-8	1-4	4-4	5	4	2	0	11
Dallin Hall	G	31	3-5	2-2	0-0	7	4	0	0	8
Ugonna Onyenso	C	20	2-5	0-0	0-0	2	1	2	4	4
Johann Grunloh	C	18	1-1	1-1	0-0	4	1	0	8	3
Elijah Gertrude	G	2	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Devin Tillis	F	12	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Carter Lang	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Martin Carrere	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Desmond Roberts	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Owen Odom	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.4Possessions70.4

86.6Offensive Efficiency127.8

127.8Defensive Efficiency86.6

-41.2Net Efficiency41.2

36.0%Effective FG%63.8%

40.6%True Shooting %67.6%

14.5%Turnover Rate16.8%

22.1%Free Throw Rate31.0%

48.5%3-Point Rate44.8%

1.40Assist / Turnover1.42

Game Summary

Virginia won by 29 points. The game played at approximately 70.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.