Southern Miss

19-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.1%Southern Miss

79.9%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.7

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -398

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreArkansas State 83

Team Comparison

Southern MissMetricArkansas State

49.9MMH Power Index57.7

106.1Offensive Efficiency113.1

104.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

1.2Net Efficiency7.8

-0.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

3.8Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.4Tempo73.3

49.9%Effective FG%52.7%

18.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

32.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

43.9%Free Throw Rate39.6%

0.9Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.9), offensive efficiency (113.1–106.1), net efficiency (7.8–1.2), recent form (15.2–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–105.3), strength of schedule (-0.2–-1.0), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Southern Miss

84—89

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 5 • 79.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Southern MissTEAM STATArkansas State

34-67FG24-60

51.0%FG%40.0%

5-173PT5-20

29.0%3PT%25.0%

11-21FT36-46

52.0%FT%78.0%

36Rebounds42

13Offensive Rebounds19

21Assists13

13Turnovers18

10Steals6

4Blocks5

32Fouls17

Player Box Score

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylik Weeks	F	38	8-17	1-3	4-6	3	9	0	0	21
Isaac Taveras	G	26	8-17	0-2	4-10	5	4	4	0	20
Djahi Binet	F	23	8-11	0-0	0-2	6	0	0	1	16
Israel Hart	G	17	2-6	2-5	2-2	1	2	0	0	8
Dylan Brumfield	G	39	3-6	0-1	1-1	8	6	3	0	7
Curt Lewis	G	22	2-5	2-5	0-0	1	0	1	0	6
Tegra Izay	C	17	3-3	0-0	0-0	7	0	2	2	6
Dalyn Brandon	G	17	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Chiante' Tramble	G	1	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jalen Hampton	G	35	7-13	1-1	2-3	13	2	1	0	17
Joey Chammaa	G	23	0-3	0-2	15-18	1	2	2	0	15
Christian Harmon	G	31	3-8	2-6	6-7	2	2	1	1	14
Chandler Jackson	G	26	4-12	0-1	3-4	7	5	0	0	11
Matt Hayman	G	21	4-12	1-5	2-4	3	1	1	0	11
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	19	2-4	1-3	4-4	5	0	0	0	9
Aly Tounkara	F	26	3-3	0-0	0-0	5	1	1	4	6
TJ Caldwell	G	19	1-5	0-2	4-6	5	0	0	0	6

Advanced Game Stats

79.0Possessions79.0

106.3Offensive Efficiency112.7

112.7Defensive Efficiency106.3

-6.3Net Efficiency6.3

54.5%Effective FG%44.2%

54.6%True Shooting %54.4%

16.9%Turnover Rate22.3%

31.3%Free Throw Rate76.7%

25.4%3-Point Rate33.3%

1.62Assist / Turnover0.72

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 79.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.