Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.2%Illinois State

77.8%Northern Iowa

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthern Iowa -7.9

PROJECTED TOTAL136.0

MODEL MONEYLINENorthern Iowa -350

Northern Iowa

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 64

Projected Total136.0

Projected ScoreNorthern Iowa 72

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricNorthern Iowa

54.3MMH Power Index61

110.6Offensive Efficiency108.4

101.4Defensive Efficiency96.4

9.2Net Efficiency12.0

1.0Strength of Schedule2.2

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency13.9

67.5Tempo64.1

54.3%Effective FG%54.6%

16.8%Turnover Rate14.4%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %21.9%

32.0%Free Throw Rate26.2%

6.2Average Margin7.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northern Iowa HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthern Iowa holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.0–54.3), defensive efficiency (96.4–101.4), net efficiency (12.0–9.2), strength of schedule (2.2–1.0).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (110.6–108.4), offensive rebounding (28.3–21.9), free throw rate (32.0–26.2).

Final

Illinois State

71—69

Northern Iowa

Illinois State by 2 • 62.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATNorthern Iowa

26-53FG24-48

49.0%FG%50.0%

10-273PT9-16

37.0%3PT%56.0%

9-11FT12-19

82.0%FT%63.0%

32Rebounds26

7Offensive Rebounds4

7Assists13

12Turnovers8

4Steals3

1Blocks1

20Fouls12

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	37	5-13	3-7	1-2	2	2	0	0	14
Boden Skunberg	G	36	6-10	2-5	0-0	8	0	0	0	14
Chase Walker	F	21	5-7	0-0	3-3	5	5	3	0	13
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	14	3-5	1-2	2-3	3	0	1	0	9
Landon Wolf	G	31	3-6	1-4	0-0	4	0	0	0	7
Jack Daugherty	F	18	1-5	1-5	3-3	2	0	0	0	6
Mason Klabo	G	12	2-4	2-4	0-0	0	0	0	0	6
Brandon Lieb	F	10	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	2
Ty Pence	G	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Landon Moore	G	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Northern Iowa

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ben Schwieger	F	37	5-6	3-3	0-0	3	1	1	0	13
Trey Campbell	G	37	3-8	2-3	5-5	5	5	1	0	13
Will Hornseth	F	28	5-10	0-0	3-6	9	3	0	0	13
Leon Bond III	F	37	4-9	0-3	3-3	3	1	1	0	11
Max Weisbrod	G	32	3-7	3-6	0-0	2	1	0	1	9
Tristan Smith	F	13	3-6	0-0	0-3	3	2	0	0	6
RJ Taylor	G	8	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Geon Hutchins	G	5	0-1	0-0	1-2	0	0	0	0	1
Kyle Pock	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.1Possessions62.1

114.3Offensive Efficiency111.1

111.1Defensive Efficiency114.3

3.2Net Efficiency-3.2

58.5%Effective FG%59.4%

61.0%True Shooting %60.5%

19.0%Turnover Rate13.1%

20.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

50.9%3-Point Rate33.3%

0.58Assist / Turnover1.63

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 62.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.