App State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

50.6%App State

49.4%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -0.8

PROJECTED TOTAL141.3

MODEL MONEYLINEApp State -102

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreApp State 70

Projected Total141.3

Projected ScoreTexas State 71

Team Comparison

App StateMetricTexas State

54.2MMH Power Index49.4

110.9Offensive Efficiency107.7

101.7Defensive Efficiency103.4

9.2Net Efficiency4.3

-4.2Strength of Schedule-4.7

7.0Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

64.9Tempo68.6

51.1%Effective FG%51.3%

15.2%Turnover Rate18.4%

34.2%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.8%Free Throw Rate36.0%

6.0Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

App State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMApp State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.2–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.9–107.7), defensive efficiency (101.7–103.4), net efficiency (9.2–4.3).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (9.1–7.0), shooting efficiency (51.3–51.1), offensive rebounding (34.3–34.2).

Final

App State

57—60

Texas State

Texas State by 3 • 60.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

App StateTEAM STATTexas State

20-57FG24-51

35.0%FG%47.0%

5-293PT3-9

17.0%3PT%33.0%

12-22FT9-15

55.0%FT%60.0%

43Rebounds28

20Offensive Rebounds6

7Assists9

13Turnovers9

4Steals6

4Blocks2

14Fouls19

Player Box Score

App State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alonzo Dodd	G	38	6-15	1-7	2-2	7	2	1	0	15
Jalen Tot	G	36	5-15	3-12	2-6	0	1	2	0	15
Luke Wilson	C	34	2-3	0-0	7-8	13	1	0	3	11
Kasen Jennings	G	37	4-13	1-5	0-1	7	3	1	0	9
Michael Marcus Jr.	F	30	3-7	0-2	1-3	10	0	0	1	7
Eren Banks	G	14	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Chad Moodie	F	11	0-1	0-0	0-2	2	0	0	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Drone	G	38	9-18	1-3	4-4	3	4	2	0	23
DJ Hall	F	35	6-16	0-2	2-3	11	3	1	0	14
Kyndall Davis	G	38	4-6	1-2	3-6	5	1	3	1	12
Makai Willis	C	14	3-3	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	6
Jalen Bolden	G	15	2-3	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	5
Franck Emmou	G	25	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Tay Knox	C	16	0-1	0-0	0-2	1	0	0	0	0
Robert Fields	C	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	0
Kaden Gumbs	G	9	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

60.8Possessions60.8

93.8Offensive Efficiency98.7

98.7Defensive Efficiency93.8

-4.9Net Efficiency4.9

39.5%Effective FG%50.0%

42.3%True Shooting %51.6%

21.5%Turnover Rate14.7%

38.6%Free Throw Rate29.4%

50.9%3-Point Rate17.6%

0.54Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Texas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 60.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.