Belmont

26-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.1%Belmont

41.9%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBelmont -0.8

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEBelmont -139

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBelmont 76

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreIllinois State 76

Team Comparison

BelmontMetricIllinois State

61.8MMH Power Index54.3

118.6Offensive Efficiency110.6

103.7Defensive Efficiency101.4

14.9Net Efficiency9.2

-0.2Strength of Schedule1.0

10.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

70.7Tempo67.5

60.7%Effective FG%54.3%

17.8%Turnover Rate16.8%

28.8%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

32.7%Free Throw Rate32.0%

10.5Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Belmont HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBelmont holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.8–54.3), offensive efficiency (118.6–110.6), net efficiency (14.9–9.2), recent form (10.0–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–103.7), strength of schedule (1.0–-0.2), ball security (16.8–17.8).

Final

Belmont

74—81

Illinois State

Illinois State by 7 • 61.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

BelmontTEAM STATIllinois State

27-54FG25-53

50.0%FG%47.0%

11-263PT12-27

42.0%3PT%44.0%

9-16FT19-23

56.0%FT%83.0%

28Rebounds31

10Offensive Rebounds10

17Assists16

9Turnovers9

5Steals4

3Blocks3

21Fouls18

Player Box Score

Belmont

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyler Lundblade	G	37	6-16	5-11	0-0	1	0	0	1	17
Jabez Jenkins	G	30	5-7	1-3	3-4	6	3	3	0	14
Jack Smiley	G	23	4-11	3-5	0-0	3	4	0	0	11
Drew Scharnowski	F	18	5-6	0-0	1-4	3	1	0	0	11
Sam Orme	F	30	2-5	1-3	4-4	5	2	1	2	9
Eoin Dillon	F	22	2-5	1-3	1-2	1	3	0	0	6
Brigham Rogers	F	12	2-2	0-0	0-2	1	1	0	0	4
Isaiah West	G	18	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	2	1	0	2
Aidan Noyes	F	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	34	5-14	2-7	4-4	3	6	1	0	16
Boden Skunberg	G	28	4-7	4-6	3-4	4	2	0	0	15
Ty Pence	G	28	4-6	1-2	5-6	4	1	0	1	14
Chase Walker	F	10	5-8	1-1	1-2	3	1	0	0	12
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	20	2-3	0-0	2-3	2	2	1	1	6
Landon Moore	G	12	2-3	2-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	6
Landon Wolf	G	30	2-5	1-4	0-0	5	0	1	1	5
Brandon Lieb	F	10	0-0	0-0	4-4	1	2	0	0	4
Jack Daugherty	F	13	1-3	1-2	0-0	3	0	1	0	3
Mason Klabo	G	15	0-4	0-3	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.8Possessions61.8

119.7Offensive Efficiency131.1

131.1Defensive Efficiency119.7

-11.3Net Efficiency11.3

60.2%Effective FG%58.5%

60.1%True Shooting %63.4%

14.9%Turnover Rate14.3%

29.6%Free Throw Rate43.4%

48.1%3-Point Rate50.9%

1.89Assist / Turnover1.78

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 61.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.