Illinois

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

55.9%Illinois

44.1%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois -0.5

PROJECTED TOTAL151.3

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois -127

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois 76

Projected Total151.3

Projected ScoreMichigan State 75

Team Comparison

IllinoisMetricMichigan State

76.5MMH Power Index69.8

125.0Offensive Efficiency117.0

103.3Defensive Efficiency101.5

21.7Net Efficiency15.5

6.7Strength of Schedule7.2

12.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

66.5Tempo67.3

54.8%Effective FG%54.1%

13.1%Turnover Rate17.2%

39.3%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

33.8%Free Throw Rate36.6%

14.5Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–69.8), offensive efficiency (125.0–117.0), net efficiency (21.7–15.5), recent form (12.7–9.5).

Michigan State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–103.3), strength of schedule (7.2–6.7), free throw rate (36.6–33.8).

Final

Illinois

78—80

Michigan State

Michigan State by 2 • 73.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

IllinoisTEAM STATMichigan State

28-66FG28-65

42.0%FG%43.0%

5-243PT3-10

21.0%3PT%30.0%

17-27FT21-27

63.0%FT%78.0%

41Rebounds40

15Offensive Rebounds13

16Assists14

10Turnovers8

3Steals2

2Blocks5

20Fouls20

Player Box Score

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Will Riley	Forward	26	7-17	2-3	3-6	6	2	0	1	19
Kylan Boswell	G	38	5-13	0-4	3-4	9	4	1	0	13
Tomislav Ivisic	C	28	6-13	1-6	0-0	4	5	0	0	13
Morez Johnson Jr.	F	17	3-3	0-0	5-8	6	0	0	0	11
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	21	3-5	0-2	1-1	4	0	1	0	7
Ben Humrichous	F	35	2-7	1-3	1-2	4	2	0	0	6
Tre White	G	20	0-2	0-2	3-5	4	0	0	0	3
Kasparas Jakucionis	Guard	9	1-3	0-2	1-1	0	3	1	1	3
Jake Davis	F	5	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tre Holloman	G	23	5-9	0-3	7-8	2	2	1	1	17
Coen Carr	F	23	4-6	1-1	2-4	2	0	0	2	11
Frankie Fidler	Forward	21	3-7	1-1	4-4	3	3	0	0	11
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	24	3-9	0-1	3-3	2	6	1	0	9
Jaden Akins	Guard	23	3-10	0-0	2-3	3	0	0	0	8
Jaxon Kohler	F	20	4-9	0-1	0-0	6	2	0	0	8
Jase Richardson	Guard	20	2-8	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Carson Cooper	C	19	2-3	0-0	0-0	8	0	0	1	4
Xavier Booker	F	17	1-2	1-1	1-2	3	0	0	0	4
Szymon Zapala	Center	9	1-2	0-0	2-3	4	1	0	1	4

Advanced Game Stats

73.3Possessions73.3

106.4Offensive Efficiency109.1

109.1Defensive Efficiency106.4

-2.7Net Efficiency2.7

46.2%Effective FG%45.4%

49.5%True Shooting %51.4%

13.5%Turnover Rate11.0%

40.9%Free Throw Rate41.5%

36.4%3-Point Rate15.4%

1.60Assist / Turnover1.75

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 73.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.