NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

5.1%NC State

94.9%Duke

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADDuke -19.1

PROJECTED TOTAL154.8

MODEL MONEYLINEDuke -1861

Duke

35-3

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 68

Projected Total154.8

Projected ScoreDuke 87

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricDuke

60.1MMH Power Index81.7

118.4Offensive Efficiency122.2

108.6Defensive Efficiency95.2

9.8Net Efficiency27.0

6.4Strength of Schedule7.8

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency18.7

70.2Tempo66.8

55.1%Effective FG%56.9%

13.1%Turnover Rate15.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %38.2%

35.7%Free Throw Rate39.0%

6.9Average Margin18.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Duke HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY94.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMDuke holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (81.7–60.1), offensive efficiency (122.2–118.4), defensive efficiency (95.2–108.6), net efficiency (27.0–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHball security (13.1–15.9).

Final

NC State

64—74

Duke

Duke by 10 • 67.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATDuke

24-59FG23-59

41.0%FG%39.0%

10-223PT4-20

45.0%3PT%20.0%

6-7FT24-28

86.0%FT%86.0%

27Rebounds42

7Offensive Rebounds15

15Assists10

13Turnovers10

6Steals8

5Blocks3

21Fouls12

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dontrez Styles	Guard	24	7-12	4-6	0-0	3	0	0	2	18
Trey Parker	G	19	6-9	3-4	0-0	1	1	1	0	15
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield	Forward	22	3-7	0-0	4-4	3	2	1	0	10
Michael O'Connell	Guard	23	4-7	1-4	0-0	3	1	1	0	9
Jayden Taylor	Guard	33	3-8	2-4	0-0	2	1	2	1	8
Marcus Hill	G	33	1-10	0-1	2-3	6	2	0	0	4
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	21	0-2	0-0	0-0	3	3	1	1	0
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	8	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	3	0	1	0
Breon Pass	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Bryce Heard	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Duke

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cooper Flagg	Forward	37	8-17	1-4	11-13	7	3	1	1	28
Kon Knueppel	Guard	35	5-15	3-10	6-6	6	0	3	0	19
Sion James	Guard	34	5-8	0-0	3-3	4	3	1	0	13
Tyrese Proctor	Guard	33	1-6	0-2	2-4	4	3	2	0	4
Khaman Maluach	Center	27	2-6	0-1	0-0	8	0	1	2	4
Patrick Ngongba II	C	8	2-3	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Mason Gillis	Forward	16	0-2	0-1	2-2	3	0	0	0	2
Caleb Foster	G	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Isaiah Evans	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.8Possessions67.8

94.4Offensive Efficiency109.1

109.1Defensive Efficiency94.4

-14.7Net Efficiency14.7

49.2%Effective FG%42.4%

51.3%True Shooting %51.2%

19.0%Turnover Rate14.9%

11.9%Free Throw Rate47.5%

37.3%3-Point Rate33.9%

1.15Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Duke won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 67.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.