Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.2%Michigan State

77.8%Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois -8.7

PROJECTED TOTAL151.3

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois -350

Illinois

28-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 71

Projected Total151.3

Projected ScoreIllinois 80

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricIllinois

69.8MMH Power Index76.5

117.0Offensive Efficiency125.0

101.5Defensive Efficiency103.3

15.5Net Efficiency21.7

7.2Strength of Schedule6.7

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency12.7

67.3Tempo66.5

54.1%Effective FG%54.8%

17.2%Turnover Rate13.1%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %39.3%

36.6%Free Throw Rate33.8%

10.5Average Margin14.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.5–69.8), offensive efficiency (125.0–117.0), net efficiency (21.7–15.5), recent form (12.7–9.5).

Michigan State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.5–103.3), strength of schedule (7.2–6.7), free throw rate (36.6–33.8).

Final

Michigan State

79—65

Illinois

Michigan State by 14 • 67.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATIllinois

33-68FG24-63

49.0%FG%38.0%

5-123PT7-33

42.0%3PT%21.0%

8-13FT10-13

62.0%FT%77.0%

41Rebounds36

14Offensive Rebounds12

12Assists10

7Turnovers11

5Steals4

5Blocks4

15Fouls14

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaxon Kohler	F	30	9-13	4-5	1-3	10	0	2	1	23
Tre Holloman	G	26	6-12	0-1	2-2	2	3	0	0	14
Jase Richardson	Guard	26	5-10	0-1	1-1	3	1	0	1	11
Coen Carr	F	18	5-6	0-1	0-1	4	1	0	0	10
Jaden Akins	Guard	19	3-10	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	1	8
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	23	2-8	0-2	0-0	4	5	1	1	4
Carson Cooper	C	22	2-3	0-0	0-2	8	0	2	1	4
Xavier Booker	F	14	1-2	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Frankie Fidler	Forward	9	0-3	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Szymon Zapala	Center	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Kur Teng	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kasparas Jakucionis	Guard	38	5-15	2-9	5-5	5	1	1	0	17
Morez Johnson Jr.	F	25	6-8	0-0	5-7	5	0	2	2	17
Will Riley	Forward	30	5-13	3-8	0-0	7	6	1	0	13
Jake Davis	F	14	3-6	2-5	0-0	1	0	0	0	8
Ben Humrichous	F	31	3-10	0-6	0-0	6	1	0	1	6
Tomislav Ivisic	C	30	2-9	0-4	0-1	7	1	0	0	4
Kylan Boswell	G	29	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	1	0
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.7Possessions67.7

116.7Offensive Efficiency96.0

96.0Defensive Efficiency116.7

20.7Net Efficiency-20.7

52.2%Effective FG%43.7%

53.3%True Shooting %47.0%

10.4%Turnover Rate16.1%

19.1%Free Throw Rate20.6%

17.6%3-Point Rate52.4%

1.71Assist / Turnover0.91

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 14 points. The game played at approximately 67.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.