Arkansas

28-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

50.9%Arkansas

49.1%Auburn

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas -0.4

PROJECTED TOTAL172.6

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas -104

Auburn

21-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas 86

Projected Total172.6

Projected ScoreAuburn 86

Team Comparison

ArkansasMetricAuburn

69.3MMH Power Index64.4

122.2Offensive Efficiency118.8

109.8Defensive Efficiency113.0

12.4Net Efficiency5.8

8.6Strength of Schedule7.5

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency8.0

73.8Tempo69.8

56.4%Effective FG%53.1%

12.2%Turnover Rate14.5%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %36.5%

36.5%Free Throw Rate43.8%

9.2Average Margin4.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.3–64.4), offensive efficiency (122.2–118.8), defensive efficiency (109.8–113.0), net efficiency (12.4–5.8).

Auburn COUNTERS WITHrecent form (8.0–3.4), offensive rebounding (36.5–31.8), free throw rate (43.8–36.5).

Final

Arkansas

60—67

Auburn

Auburn by 7 • 68.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ArkansasTEAM STATAuburn

25-55FG25-62

45.0%FG%40.0%

3-193PT4-24

16.0%3PT%17.0%

7-14FT13-17

50.0%FT%76.0%

29Rebounds42

4Offensive Rebounds13

10Assists11

11Turnovers12

10Steals7

5Blocks2

14Fouls13

Player Box Score

Arkansas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Adou Thiero	Forward	32	6-13	1-3	3-6	4	0	1	0	16
Johnell Davis	Guard	36	5-9	0-2	4-5	3	4	3	0	14
D.J. Wagner	G	37	5-12	1-4	0-1	2	5	1	0	11
Karter Knox	G	29	5-6	1-1	0-2	4	0	2	1	11
Billy Richmond III	G	18	4-5	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	1	8
Zvonimir Ivisic	C	30	0-10	0-9	0-0	8	0	2	3	0
Trevon Brazile	F	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jonas Aidoo	Forward	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	0

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johni Broome	Forward	33	7-15	0-3	2-2	13	3	0	0	16
Chad Baker-Mazara	G	25	4-8	1-5	6-6	3	0	0	0	15
Chaney Johnson	Forward	28	6-13	0-2	2-3	6	1	2	1	14
Denver Jones	Guard	31	3-9	1-3	2-2	3	1	0	0	9
Miles Kelly	Guard	34	3-10	1-6	0-0	8	1	4	0	7
Tahaad Pettiford	G	17	1-4	1-4	1-2	2	4	0	0	4
Chris Moore	Forward	13	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
Dylan Cardwell	Center	19	0-1	0-0	0-2	3	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.9Possessions68.9

87.1Offensive Efficiency97.2

97.2Defensive Efficiency87.1

-10.2Net Efficiency10.2

48.2%Effective FG%43.5%

48.7%True Shooting %47.8%

16.0%Turnover Rate17.4%

25.5%Free Throw Rate27.4%

34.5%3-Point Rate38.7%

0.91Assist / Turnover0.92

Game Summary

Auburn won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 68.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.