Mississippi State

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

3.7%Mississippi State

96.3%Arkansas

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas -21.8

PROJECTED TOTAL171.1

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas -2603

Arkansas

28-9

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMississippi State 75

Projected Total171.1

Projected ScoreArkansas 96

Team Comparison

Mississippi StateMetricArkansas

44.6MMH Power Index69.3

107.4Offensive Efficiency122.2

113.2Defensive Efficiency109.8

-5.8Net Efficiency12.4

5.0Strength of Schedule8.6

-17.5Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

72.3Tempo73.8

51.6%Effective FG%56.4%

16.1%Turnover Rate12.2%

29.8%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

30.9%Free Throw Rate36.5%

-4.2Average Margin9.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY96.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

11–0

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.3–44.6), offensive efficiency (122.2–107.4), defensive efficiency (109.8–113.2), net efficiency (12.4–-5.8).

Final

Mississippi State

92—93

Arkansas

Arkansas by 1 • 70.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Mississippi StateTEAM STATArkansas

32-73FG31-56

44.0%FG%55.0%

12-323PT9-21

38.0%3PT%43.0%

16-21FT22-27

76.0%FT%81.0%

29Rebounds41

12Offensive Rebounds11

15Assists21

2Turnovers10

5Steals2

4Blocks7

21Fouls15

Player Box Score

Mississippi State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Claudell Harris Jr.	Guard	24	6-11	4-9	2-2	2	0	0	0	18
Josh Hubbard	G	34	4-16	3-11	6-6	1	4	0	0	17
Cameron Matthews	Forward	30	5-11	1-3	2-5	6	4	3	0	13
KeShawn Murphy	F	19	6-11	0-0	1-2	6	0	0	1	13
Riley Kugel	G	23	4-9	2-4	2-3	3	1	0	0	12
RJ Melendez	Forward	26	4-7	2-3	0-0	3	0	0	1	10
Mike Nwoko	F	19	3-6	0-0	3-3	2	2	0	1	9
Shawn Jones Jr.	G	20	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	2	2	1	0
Dellquan Warren	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	0	0

Arkansas

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
D.J. Wagner	G	38	7-9	3-4	7-7	2	5	0	0	24
Jonas Aidoo	Forward	32	8-11	0-0	5-10	10	4	0	3	21
Johnell Davis	Guard	34	4-10	3-5	4-4	4	4	2	0	15
Trevon Brazile	F	23	4-7	3-5	0-0	11	0	0	0	11
Billy Richmond III	G	28	3-6	0-1	4-4	2	6	0	2	10
Karter Knox	G	23	3-7	0-3	0-0	3	1	0	0	6
Zvonimir Ivisic	C	22	2-6	0-3	2-2	4	1	0	2	6

Advanced Game Stats

70.4Possessions70.4

130.7Offensive Efficiency132.1

132.1Defensive Efficiency130.7

-1.4Net Efficiency1.4

52.1%Effective FG%63.4%

55.4%True Shooting %67.6%

2.7%Turnover Rate14.7%

28.8%Free Throw Rate48.2%

43.8%3-Point Rate37.5%

7.50Assist / Turnover2.10

Game Summary

Arkansas won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 70.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.