North Carolina

24-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

51.5%North Carolina

48.5%San Diego State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSan Diego State -1.3

PROJECTED TOTAL151.9

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Carolina -106

San Diego State

22-10

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Carolina 75

Projected Total151.9

Projected ScoreSan Diego State 77

Team Comparison

North CarolinaMetricSan Diego State

65.2MMH Power Index60.1

115.5Offensive Efficiency110.3

103.8Defensive Efficiency99.3

11.7Net Efficiency11.0

7.6Strength of Schedule3.8

-1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency0.4

69.0Tempo70.8

54.6%Effective FG%53.2%

13.9%Turnover Rate17.2%

31.1%Offensive Rebound %30.8%

38.1%Free Throw Rate39.6%

8.1Average Margin7.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Carolina HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY51.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Carolina holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (65.2–60.1), offensive efficiency (115.5–110.3), net efficiency (11.7–11.0), strength of schedule (7.6–3.8).

San Diego State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (99.3–103.8), recent form (0.4–-1.8), free throw rate (39.6–38.1).

Final

North Carolina

95—68

San Diego State

North Carolina by 27 • 70.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North CarolinaTEAM STATSan Diego State

30-57FG23-58

53.0%FG%40.0%

14-243PT8-27

58.0%3PT%30.0%

21-24FT14-23

88.0%FT%61.0%

39Rebounds28

10Offensive Rebounds9

17Assists11

11Turnovers11

6Steals7

2Blocks5

19Fouls16

Player Box Score

North Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
RJ Davis	Guard	28	8-12	6-6	4-5	0	2	0	0	26
Seth Trimble	G	27	5-10	0-2	6-6	3	0	0	0	16
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	21	2-3	0-0	8-8	4	0	0	0	12
Jae'Lyn Withers	Forward	25	3-6	2-4	2-2	9	1	1	0	10
Elliot Cadeau	G	27	4-5	1-1	0-0	2	12	3	1	9
Ian Jackson	G	17	3-9	3-6	0-0	1	0	0	0	9
Drake Powell	Guard	20	2-4	1-2	1-2	4	0	1	1	6
Dante Mayo Jr.	Guard	1	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Jalen Washington	C	15	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	1	0	2
James Brown	F	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Cade Tyson	G	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Ty Claude	Forward	6	0-2	0-0	0-1	4	0	0	0	0
John Holbrook	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Russell Hawkins	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

San Diego State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Boyd	G	30	4-14	2-8	2-3	5	2	0	0	12
Wayne McKinney III	Guard	19	5-8	2-4	0-0	0	0	0	1	12
BJ Davis	G	26	4-10	0-3	1-1	3	3	2	1	9
Magoon Gwath	F	24	2-6	1-2	4-8	5	1	1	2	9
Jared Coleman-Jones	Forward	23	2-4	1-3	1-2	2	2	1	0	6
Miles Heide	F	18	2-2	1-1	1-2	6	0	0	0	6
Pharaoh Compton	F	12	2-4	0-0	1-1	0	1	0	0	5
Miles Byrd	G	24	1-5	0-4	2-2	1	1	2	1	4
Cam Lawin	G	1	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Kimo Ferrari	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	1	0	2
Taj DeGourville	G	16	0-4	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Shay Johnson Jr.	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Desai Lopez	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-2	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Schwarz	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.2Possessions70.2

135.3Offensive Efficiency96.9

96.9Defensive Efficiency135.3

38.5Net Efficiency-38.5

64.9%Effective FG%46.6%

69.4%True Shooting %49.3%

15.9%Turnover Rate15.5%

42.1%Free Throw Rate39.7%

42.1%3-Point Rate46.6%

1.55Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

North Carolina won by 27 points. The game played at approximately 70.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.