Michigan State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

52.3%Michigan State

47.7%Auburn

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -1.0

PROJECTED TOTAL157.4

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -110

Auburn

21-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMichigan State 79

Projected Total157.4

Projected ScoreAuburn 78

Team Comparison

Michigan StateMetricAuburn

69.8MMH Power Index64.4

117.0Offensive Efficiency118.8

101.5Defensive Efficiency113.0

15.5Net Efficiency5.8

7.2Strength of Schedule7.5

9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency8.0

67.3Tempo69.8

54.1%Effective FG%53.1%

17.2%Turnover Rate14.5%

37.7%Offensive Rebound %36.5%

36.6%Free Throw Rate43.8%

10.5Average Margin4.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–64.4), defensive efficiency (101.5–113.0), net efficiency (15.5–5.8), recent form (9.5–8.0).

Auburn COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (118.8–117.0), strength of schedule (7.5–7.2), ball security (14.5–17.2).

Final

Michigan State

64—70

Auburn

Auburn by 6 • 66.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Michigan StateTEAM STATAuburn

22-64FG26-61

34.0%FG%43.0%

7-233PT7-25

30.0%3PT%28.0%

13-16FT11-20

81.0%FT%55.0%

41Rebounds39

13Offensive Rebounds11

12Assists16

9Turnovers6

5Steals4

5Blocks5

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaxon Kohler	F	28	6-8	3-4	2-2	11	2	0	1	17
Jaden Akins	Guard	32	6-17	3-10	0-1	3	1	0	0	15
Jase Richardson	Guard	30	4-13	0-2	3-3	3	1	3	1	11
Frankie Fidler	Forward	15	2-4	1-2	4-4	5	0	1	0	9
Coen Carr	F	21	1-4	0-0	2-2	4	0	0	1	4
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	26	1-4	0-0	0-2	4	5	1	1	2
Tre Holloman	G	21	0-10	0-5	2-2	2	2	0	0	2
Szymon Zapala	Center	14	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	1	2
Carson Cooper	C	13	1-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2

Auburn

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johni Broome	Forward	29	10-13	2-2	3-5	14	2	1	1	25
Tahaad Pettiford	G	27	4-12	2-6	0-1	1	3	1	1	10
Denver Jones	Guard	29	2-6	0-2	4-4	0	1	0	0	8
Miles Kelly	Guard	25	3-10	1-6	1-2	6	3	1	0	8
Chaney Johnson	Forward	25	3-7	0-1	2-4	6	0	0	1	8
Chad Baker-Mazara	G	32	2-10	2-8	0-0	2	5	1	0	6
Dylan Cardwell	Center	24	2-3	0-0	1-4	6	1	0	2	5
Chris Moore	Forward	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.6Possessions66.6

96.1Offensive Efficiency105.1

105.1Defensive Efficiency96.1

-9.0Net Efficiency9.0

39.8%Effective FG%48.4%

44.7%True Shooting %49.6%

13.3%Turnover Rate9.2%

25.0%Free Throw Rate32.8%

35.9%3-Point Rate41.0%

1.33Assist / Turnover2.67

Game Summary

Auburn won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 66.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.