2026–27 Big 12 Preview: Arizona Leads, West Virginia Is the Sleeper

2026-11-03

Arizona remains MMH's Big 12 favorite because its interior anchor and returning wing talent give a rebuilt perimeter a strong foundation. Houston has a different kind of continuity: the defensive expectations remain recognizable even when several of the players executing them change. Kansas brings elite freshman upside, while Iowa State must redistribute substantial responsibilities without losing its defensive pressure.

Robert Wright III gives BYU one of the league's best answers at the most influential offensive position. Texas Tech has the perimeter scoring to contend, but JT Toppin's ACL recovery makes any forecast that assumes a full season from him too confident. These projections do not assign him a return date.

West Virginia is the sleeper selection. Ross Hodge has added perimeter production and complementary frontcourt options to a program with a clear defensive direction. Cincinnati, Arizona State and Kansas State all introduce new head coaches, making the middle and lower tiers especially sensitive to how quickly players learn new responsibilities. The 18-game schedule leaves little room to recover from a prolonged stretch of empty offensive possessions.

Projected standings

MMH's order and records are independent editorial projections, not a reproduction of either comparison source. Records balance across the league; they are not a game-by-game simulation. Poll ranks retain published ties where applicable.

Current-roster correction: Iowa State announced Tamin Lipsey's return on September 28. He is included here despite Blue Ribbon's earlier departure listing. JT Toppin's ACL recovery creates enough availability uncertainty that this list does not assume a full season from him.

Team outlooks

1. Arizona

Key players: Derek Dixon; Caleb Holt; Ivan Kharchenkov; RJ Godfrey; Motiejus Krivas.

Tommy Lloyd can build around a center who changes both ends of the floor. Motiejus Krivas gives Arizona an interior scoring target, rebounding and rim protection, while Ivan Kharchenkov adds a returning wing with the strength to handle difficult assignments. Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey provides an experienced frontcourt complement whose finishing can punish defenses that concentrate on Krivas.

The perimeter transition creates the most important uncertainty. North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon has an opportunity to grow into a larger organizing role, and freshman Caleb Holt adds considerable talent. Arizona does not need both to become veteran guards immediately, but it does need them to make consistent decisions when the first action is denied. JJ Mandaquit supplies another handling option, and the wing and interior reserves create different matchups. The Wildcats are MMH's favorite because the returning foundation and frontcourt quality reduce the number of jobs that newcomers must solve alone. Efficient guard play would make them difficult to dislodge from first place.

Defining question: Can the new perimeter group consistently deliver the ball to the frontcourt without sacrificing spacing?

2. Houston

Key players: Dedan Thomas Jr.; Mercy Miller; Corey Hadnot II; Joseph Tugler; Delrecco Gillespie.

Kelvin Sampson's best teams make an opponent work to obtain a shot and then work again to secure the rebound. Joseph Tugler gives the new Houston group a defensive reference point. Dedan Thomas Jr. adds an experienced organizer, Corey Hadnot II brings substantial scoring production from Purdue Fort Wayne, and Kent State transfer Delrecco Gillespie offers rebounding and interior activity. Those are distinct basketball functions rather than interchangeable transfer credentials.

Mercy Miller has room to expand his role, and Chase McCarty and Braden East give the staff additional combinations. Houston's offensive question is whether its new guards can create efficient looks without weakening the habits that make the defense so demanding. Hadnot's production has to translate to larger, more physical defenders, while Thomas must connect the frontcourt with the perimeter. MMH places the Cougars second because Tugler and the program's defensive structure provide a dependable starting point. Challenging Arizona requires enough shooting and handling to survive opponents who force Houston into a slower, more deliberate game.

Defining question: Will the new offensive pieces preserve Houston's defensive and rebounding identity?

3. Kansas

Key players: Taylen Kinney; Leroy Blyden Jr.; Tyran Stokes; Keanu Dawes; Paul Mbiya.

Tyran Stokes gives Kansas a freshman around whom opponents must build a defensive plan. His combination of size and creation can distort matchups before a play has fully developed. Bill Self can surround him with Toledo transfer Leroy Blyden Jr.'s guard production and Utah transfer Keanu Dawes' rebounding and frontcourt skill. Taylen Kinney introduces another talented young creator.

Kansas' risk is the amount of important decision-making assigned to newcomers. Stokes can be a star without every difficult possession needing to begin and end with him. Blyden must translate his efficiency against stronger perimeter defenders, and the center group must make itself useful on offense while protecting the rim. Paul Mbiya and Christian Reeves offer different interior looks; Dennis Parker Jr. gives the wings an experienced scoring alternative. MMH's third-place forecast respects the upside while accounting for the development required. The Jayhawks' route to first depends on their supporting players creating enough advantages that defenses cannot load every possession toward Stokes.

Defining question: Can the experienced additions stabilize the offense around the high-upside freshman core?

4. Iowa State

Key players: Tamin Lipsey; Jaquan Johnson; Leon Bond III; Tre Singleton; Blake Buchanan.

Tamin Lipsey's September return changes the starting point for Iowa State. His experience organizing the offense and pressuring opposing guards gives T.J. Otzelberger an established leader alongside Jaquan Johnson. Leon Bond III adds an experienced wing, Tre Singleton offers frontcourt upside and Blake Buchanan gives the interior a finishing target.

The combination creates a stronger continuity case than the summer roster suggested. Lipsey can share handling duties rather than asking Johnson to solve every difficult possession, while Killyan Toure and Jamarion Batemon provide additional perimeter options. The remaining questions concern frontcourt rebounding and the quality of the shots created against set defenses. Iowa State has the defensive identity to stay in the race, but its ceiling depends on turning that pressure into efficient offense without becoming overly dependent on jump shooting. MMH projects fourth because the returning lead guard and established system provide a substantial floor in a league with several reworked contenders.

Defining question: Who consistently creates efficient half-court offense when the defense cannot generate transition chances?

5. BYU

Key players: Robert Wright III; Collin Chandler; Tyler Betsey; Khadim Mboup; Jake Wahlin.

Robert Wright III gives Kevin Young a major advantage: BYU can begin an offense with a guard who already produces and makes others useful. That matters after losing AJ Dybantsa's extraordinary individual creation. Kentucky transfer Collin Chandler can space the floor and share some perimeter responsibility, while Tyler Betsey and Jake Wahlin offer shooting and size from the forward positions.

Khadim Mboup's rebounding and activity can help connect the frontcourt, but BYU's interior roles require close attention to eligibility and availability. Summer assumptions around returning fifth-year players should not be treated as automatic lineup guarantees. The Cougars' best route is to give Wright clear passing options and enough defensive support that he does not have to win every possession through offense. MMH puts BYU fifth, slightly above the coaches and Blue Ribbon, because an established lead guard can reduce the volatility of a changing roster. Moving into the top three requires reliable interior defense and efficient production from the players receiving Wright's passes.

Defining question: Can BYU build a dependable defensive and rebounding frontcourt around Wright's creation?

6. Texas Tech

Key players: Cruz Davis; Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn; Damarion Dennis; Donovan Atwell; Josiah Moseley.

Grant McCasland has assembled a perimeter group with several players accustomed to carrying offense. Cruz Davis brings creation from Hofstra, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn adds scoring from UNLV, and Damarion Dennis provides another handling option. Donovan Atwell's shooting can make those guards more effective by stretching the defense beyond the first drive.

The interior forecast is necessarily conditional. JT Toppin's torn ACL removes the right to assume his usual scoring and rebounding will be available on a particular date. MMH is not assigning one. The available frontcourt includes Jamichael Stillwell, Josiah Moseley and Mariel Akuentok, with Toppin's role revisited as medical information changes. Stillwell's rebounding and physical play can help bridge the gap, but replacing a star usually requires several players to take on new duties. A sixth-place projection acknowledges both the guards' upside and the difficulty of maintaining frontcourt efficiency during that transition.

Defining question: How much interior production can the available group provide while Toppin works through his recovery?

7. West Virginia

Key players: Miles Sadler; Joson Sanon; Finley Bizjack; Javan Buchanan; Mouhamed Sylla.

Ross Hodge has a better collection of offensive options to support the defensive demands of his system. Finley Bizjack gives West Virginia a guard who has already produced in the Big East. Joson Sanon adds wing scoring potential, and Martin Somerville supplies another handler. Javan Buchanan and Georgia Tech transfer Mouhamed Sylla offer complementary frontcourt skills rather than asking a single player to handle every interior job.

The important distinction is between adding scorers and creating a balanced offense. West Virginia needs its guards to make the next pass and its forwards to finish through contact without crowding the driving lanes. Sylla's availability and the broader frontcourt's health are important after interrupted seasons, and eligibility-sensitive assumptions must stay attached to the players concerned. MMH selects the Mountaineers as the sleeper and places them seventh, above their tied-eighth coaches position. The upside comes from having more functional answers around a defensive identity. A top-five finish becomes plausible if their new perimeter pieces improve shot quality without increasing avoidable turnovers.

Defining question: Can the new scoring options raise the offensive floor while the defense remains a strength?

8. Cincinnati

Key players: Tylen Riley; Myles Colvin; Trevian Carson; Tyler Tejada; Jayden Hastings.

Jerrod Calhoun brings a new structure and a roster with several players capable of creating an advantage. Tylen Riley provides experienced point-guard production, Myles Colvin adds perimeter size and shooting, and Trevian Carson can contribute on the glass as well as with the ball. Towson transfer Tyler Tejada offers a larger scoring option whose role can change with the matchup.

The Bearcats have more apparent depth on the perimeter than in the interior. Jayden Hastings and Riley Allenspach therefore matter beyond their own scoring: their screening, rebounding and defensive reliability influence which guards can share the court. Elijah Perryman's familiarity with Calhoun can help the transition, while Akai Fleming and Eric Mahaffey offer additional options. MMH places Cincinnati eighth, acknowledging a credible upper-half ceiling without assuming a new system and a mostly new roster will become consistent immediately. The strongest version moves the ball, attacks quickly when an opening exists and avoids turning tempo into rushed, low-value possessions.

Defining question: Can Cincinnati pair its guard depth with enough interior defense and rebounding?

9. Baylor

Key players: Isaac Williams IV; Kayden Mingo; Brett Decker Jr.; Isaac Celiscar; Caden Powell.

Scott Drew has a plausible path to improving the balance around returning guard Isaac Williams IV. Penn State transfer Kayden Mingo adds creation and defensive activity, while Liberty transfer Brett Decker Jr. provides shooting that can alter an opponent's help decisions. Yale transfer Isaac Celiscar contributes strength, finishing and secondary passing, giving Baylor another way to keep possessions moving.

The frontcourt must turn those advantages into completed possessions. Caden Powell's experience is useful, and Juslin Bodo Bodo's recovery after missing 2025–26 is an important part of the interior outlook. His 2024–25 High Point statistics should not be relabeled as last season's production. Evan Chatman adds rebounding support. MMH is higher than Blue Ribbon's eleventh-place placement but stops at ninth because Baylor still needs a dependable defensive structure and a clear answer against physical interior teams. Its top-half case becomes stronger if the new guards can improve creation without giving back too much at the other end.

Defining question: Will better perimeter balance be supported by consistent interior health and defense?

10. TCU

Key players: Brock Harding; Micah Robinson; Gavin Sykes; Xavier Edmonds; Tanner Toolson.

Jamie Dixon has a recognizable base in Brock Harding, Micah Robinson and Xavier Edmonds. Harding's passing can organize the offense, Robinson provides a returning perimeter option, and Edmonds offers an established frontcourt scoring and rebounding presence. Tanner Toolson adds familiarity and spacing. That continuity should help newcomers learn clear roles rather than compete for an entirely undefined hierarchy.

Gavin Sykes brings scoring production, while DJ Thomas gives the forwards another physical option. The interior additions must establish which combinations can protect the rim and rebound without making the offense too cramped. TCU's challenge is to improve its supply of easy shots while still producing enough points when opponents force a deliberate game. MMH is more cautious than the coaches' seventh-place projection because much of the depth is new and the center rotation has to prove itself. A tenth-place forecast still leaves a realistic upper-half route if Harding's creation consistently reaches productive finishers.

Defining question: Can the returning core integrate enough new scoring and interior support to sustain an efficient offense?

11. Oklahoma State

Key players: Kanye Clary; Kashie Natt; Luka Bogavac; Jordan Burks; Benjamin Ahmed.

Steve Lutz can build around a returning lead guard in Kanye Clary while adding players with identifiable ways to help. Kashie Natt's rebounding from the guard spot can support a faster game. Luka Bogavac provides shooting and size, and UCF transfer Jordan Burks adds a perimeter scoring option. Benjamin Ahmed gives the frontcourt a returning player with room to develop.

The Cowboys also have options in Julius Halaifonua, Andrija Grbovic and Jacob Walker, which should make the rotation less dependent on one or two productive combinations. The question is whether a more experienced roster can defend and protect the ball consistently enough to take advantage of that depth. Lutz wants pace, but the useful version comes from good possessions and completed stops. MMH's eleventh-place placement is more cautious than Blue Ribbon's eighth because the additions still have to become a connected team. A move into the upper half is possible if Clary's decisions improve the quality of the opportunities around him.

Defining question: Can Oklahoma State play quickly while maintaining enough defensive structure and ball security?

12. Arizona State

Key players: Joel Foxwell; Bryce Ford; Dillan Shaw; Paulius Murauskas; Ben Defty.

Randy Bennett has brought a different set of expectations to Tempe. Paulius Murauskas supplies a proven frontcourt scorer and rebounder, and Dillan Shaw offers another player familiar with the coach's demands. Ben Defty adds size and efficient finishing. The Sun Devils do not need to reproduce Saint Mary's personnel exactly to benefit from a clearer emphasis on decisions, shot quality and defensive positioning.

The difficult part is building an entirely new conference-level hierarchy. Joel Foxwell offers a lead-guard option, Bryce Ford provides a returning perimeter piece, and Jonathan Griman and Nate Garcia can support the interior rotation. The translation of several mid-major roles to the Big 12 will determine how far the first season can go. MMH projects twelfth, matching the coaches, because a new system is not an automatic shortcut past experienced rivals. Murauskas gives ASU an offensive anchor; its sleeper case would require the guards to make that advantage accessible while limiting live-ball turnovers.

Defining question: How quickly can the new guards and frontcourt translate Bennett's structure into Big 12 execution?

13. UCF

Key players: Cayden Vasko; Dior Johnson; Carmelo Pacheco; Lewis Walker; John Bol.

Johnny Dawkins has several ways to initiate offense, beginning with Cayden Vasko's passing and Dior Johnson's scoring. Carmelo Pacheco can stretch the defense, while Lewis Walker adds a larger player who can attack from the wing. John Bol's size and finishing provide an interior reference point, and Arturo Dean gives the perimeter another source of pressure and ballhandling.

The key is building combinations that defend as well as they create. A high scoring average from a previous role is not a guarantee of the same production against Big 12 size, and the Knights need their perimeter pieces to make room for one another. Isaiah Malone and Churchill Abass can help with interior activity; the broader frontcourt must rebound without creating an excessive foul burden. MMH places UCF thirteenth because the potential scoring improvement still comes with considerable defensive and chemistry questions. Moving into the middle tier requires the guards to generate good shots consistently rather than trade difficult attempts with better teams.

Defining question: Can the new perimeter scorers produce an offense that also supports stable defense and rebounding?

14. Colorado

Key players: Barrington Hargress; Josiah Sanders; Jalin Holland; Justin Neely; Noah Feddersen.

Barrington Hargress gives Tad Boyle an experienced organizer after significant production departed. Josiah Sanders, Ian Inman and Jalin Holland offer internal development possibilities, while UNC Greensboro transfer Justin Neely adds rebounding and scoring. Noah Feddersen provides size and another experienced frontcourt option. The roster has routes to a more balanced offense without requiring a freshman to run every important possession.

Colorado nevertheless has to replace the production and matchup flexibility lost with Isaiah Johnson, Sebastian Rancik and Bangot Dak. Hargress can create chances, but someone must finish them and then help the team defend the next possession. David Gomez and the incoming international players expand the possibilities while introducing their own adjustment periods. MMH's fourteenth-place projection reflects that transition and the depth of the conference. The Buffaloes can exceed it if the returning wings improve their shooting and the new frontcourt consistently finishes defensive possessions, making the offense less dependent on Hargress rescuing broken plays.

Defining question: Can the new forwards replace enough rebounding and finishing to support Hargress' creation?

15. Kansas State

Key players: Brandon Rechsteiner; Jaden Schutt; Andrej Kostic; Timo Malovec; JT Rock.

Casey Alexander's first Kansas State team has a clear offensive direction: create space, make the next pass and give capable shooters usable attempts. Brandon Rechsteiner and Jaden Schutt can stretch a defense, Andrej Kostic supplies a returning perimeter piece, and JT Rock gives the frontcourt a player who can operate away from the rim. Timo Malovec offers additional size and experience.

The question is whether the Wildcats can defend and rebound well enough to give that offense a workable margin for error. Isaiah Abraham, Dez Lindsay and the other additions supply alternatives, but a new rotation has to establish clear defensive responsibilities. Alexander's success at Belmont is relevant to his methods rather than proof that the same results will arrive immediately in the Big 12. MMH puts Kansas State fifteenth because the shooting creates a competitive path but the physical floor still requires evidence. A fast offensive adjustment would make the Wildcats dangerous in individual games well before it proves sustainable across the full schedule.

Defining question: Will the spacing-oriented offense be paired with sufficient rebounding and defensive resistance?

16. Utah

Key players: Noam Yaacov; TJ Burch; Taison Chatman; Jackson Holcombe; Fynn Schott.

Alex Jensen has rebuilt Utah with more international experience and a different set of complementary players. Noam Yaacov offers a potential lead creator, while TJ Burch and Taison Chatman give the backcourt additional options. Jackson Holcombe can contribute with size on the perimeter, and Fynn Schott provides another frontcourt possibility. The Utes' challenge is to turn a broad collection of backgrounds into a narrow set of dependable jobs.

Babacar Faye's availability and the development of the other interior pieces matter to a team that needs to improve its defensive possessions. Neither professional experience nor a productive mid-major season automatically answers how a player will perform against Big 12 pressure. Returning players such as Obomate Abbey and Lucas Langarita can help the transition, but Utah still has substantial work to do in creation, spacing and rebounding. MMH starts the Utes sixteenth because too many important responsibilities remain unsettled. Exceeding that projection begins with a reliable guard rotation and an interior group that can complete stops.

Defining question: Can Utah establish dependable ballhandling and defensive rebounding early enough to stay competitive?

Sources and method

Roster background and player evaluations draw on the supplied Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook 2026–27. Team section starting pages: Arizona 16; Houston 25; Kansas 45; Iowa State 48; BYU 180; Texas Tech 188; West Virginia 190; Cincinnati 182; Baylor 179; TCU 187; Oklahoma State 185; Arizona State 177; UCF 181; Colorado 183; Kansas State 184; Utah 189. Printed page numbers are used. Current availability changes are incorporated where identified above; the key-player groups are editorial selections, not confirmed starting lineups.

Comparison: Coaches' poll. Schedule format: conference announcement. No Torvik rank is invented where a dated ranking snapshot was not supplied. These are preseason forecasts, updated for identified roster developments through November 3, rather than assessments based on opening-night results.

Top 10 players · West Virginia sleeper