2026-27 Horizon League Preview: Wright State Leads, Northern Illinois Is MMH’s Sleeper

2026-10-09

Wright State enters 2026–27 as both the defending Horizon League regular-season and tournament champion and the favorite in the league’s official preseason poll. But Robert Morris and Green Bay have strong arguments of their own, Northern Kentucky and Oakland are dangerous, and the middle of the standings could move dramatically as rebuilt rosters settle.

MMH is picking Wright State to win the Horizon League.

MMH’s sleeper is Northern Illinois. First-year coach Matt Majkrzak inherits a completely different roster, yet the offensive upside may be greater than the official tenth-place projection implies.

MMH Projected Order

The 12 projected conference records balance to 120 wins and 120 losses over a 20-game schedule. These are MMH editorial preseason projections, not game-model outputs, and represent a distinct judgment from the outside sources. The official poll (October 7) combines voting by head coaches, sports information directors and media members; it is not a coaches-only ballot. Torvik rankings are the order of Horizon teams in the 2027 preseason T-Rank screenshot reviewed October 9. Blue Ribbon rankings come from the 2026–27 College Basketball Yearbook.

Where the projections disagree

The league, Torvik and Blue Ribbon all put Wright State, Robert Morris and Green Bay first through third. The real disagreements begin immediately after: Torvik moves Northern Kentucky ahead of Oakland, while MMH agrees. The bigger deviation is Northern Illinois: tenth in the official poll, seventh in Torvik and sixth in Blue Ribbon. MMH ranks NIU sixth, four spots above the official poll, because of its potential to create efficient offense in Majkrzak’s system.

Detroit Mercy is another interesting split: Torvik has the Titans sixth, while MMH is eighth and Blue Ribbon eighth. Youngstown State is ninth for MMH and Torvik but eleventh in Blue Ribbon. With a tightly packed middle, small changes in transition defense, three-point shooting and availability could swing multiple games.

Team-by-team outlook

1. Wright State

The standard still runs through Dayton

Clint Sargent no longer has the luxury of sneaking up on anybody. Wright State won both Horizon League titles at 15–5 and 23–12 overall. Kellen Pickett, last season's league Freshman of the Year, is back as a 6-foot-9 sophomore and enters this year as the league's preseason Player of the Year. Dominic Pangonis and Andrea Holden return alongside him. The biggest new piece is CJ O'Hara, the former Green Bay wing who scored 14.1 points per game in 2025–26 and already knows the league's personnel. His off-ball scoring should mesh with Pangonis' connective play.

The challenge is replacing the departed defensive personnel without giving away the balance that made the title run possible. O'Hara and transfer guard Chadlyn Traylor raise the perimeter ceiling; Nikola Djapa gives the team needed size behind or alongside Pickett. Sam Johnson is another experienced scoring option. A repeat requires stronger defensive rebounding and enough guard stops for Pickett's offensive versatility to matter in March.

2. Robert Morris

A proven contender, but still a retool

Andy Toole has turned Robert Morris into an annual upper-tier Horizon contender. The Colonials were 13–7 in conference last season, and Darius Livingston remains a reliable starting point for the rebuilt perimeter. Livingston shot well from three as a freshman and has room to take a bigger creation role. Ace Valentine arrives from UMBC after averaging roughly 12 points and four assists, giving Toole a second proven ballhandler. Ta'Zir Smith also returns, while Jalik Dunkley and KC Ugwuakazi add size and experience on the wings and inside.

Losing three leading scorers means the offensive hierarchy must be reconstructed rather than simply inherited. Robert Morris has enough guards to limit mistakes and enough size to play a physical game; how quickly its new frontcourt establishes defensive identity will determine whether the Colonials can overtake Wright State. MMH places RMU second, and that is a title-caliber position rather than a distant runner-up.

3. Green Bay

Marcus Hall is the reason to believe

Doug Gottlieb's second Green Bay team made a substantial jump, finishing 12–8 in the Horizon League. The Phoenix retain Marcus Hall, a reliable 6-foot-6 forward who averaged 13.9 points and 5.2 rebounds and shot better than 40 percent from three. He can score without dominating the ball, which is a useful foundation for a roster that brings in nine newcomers. Guard Orlando Lovejoy adds on-ball creation, with LeBron Thomas, Aidan Hadaway and other newcomers offering fresh perimeter and frontcourt combinations.

The key tension is continuity versus the strength of the returning top option. Hall gives Green Bay one of the safest individual projections in the league, but the rest of the rotation must establish chemistry quickly. A top-three finish is reasonable if its new guards generate quality shots and the Phoenix rebound consistently. With Wright State and Robert Morris, Green Bay forms the clearest upper tier of the conference.

4. Northern Kentucky

More playmaking, a tougher front line

Ethan Elliott is one of the most dependable point guards in the league. The Australian guard handled the ball securely in 2025–26 and has the experience to organize an offense with several new options. Eric Acker arrives from La Salle after earlier success at LIU, while 6-foot-6 BJ Davis-Ray brings high-major experience from SMU. Inside, Niagara transfer Will Shortt and East Texas A&M transfer Noah Pagotto add physicality, rebounding and a broader range of finishing options.

This is a lineup that should be less reliant on any one scoring source than the previous year's version. The concern is spacing when the bigger combinations share the floor and whether the newcomers can sustain pressure defense. MMH slots the Norse fourth, one place ahead of the official poll, because Elliott's decision-making is a valuable stabilizer in a conference full of new guards.

5. Oakland

Kampe's offense must get enough stops

Greg Kampe has spent decades creating scoring advantages with personnel and spacing. Oakland went 12–8 in Horizon play last year and again enters with an intriguing offensive mix. RJ Taylor arrives from Northern Iowa to handle the ball; Ryder Bradley brings scoring and passing after a productive Division II season. Nassim Mashhour provides wing size, while Chris Fields Jr., Belal El Shakery and newcomer Nate Ahner offer multiple possible frontcourt combinations.

Oakland's offensive imagination is an asset, but last year's defense lagged well behind its offense. The staff needs better resistance at the rim and fewer easy transition opportunities if the Golden Grizzlies want to move from a good regular-season offense into a title-winning team. MMH puts Oakland fifth, essentially even with Northern Kentucky and Northern Illinois, and sees a real path to fourth if its defensive balance improves.

6. Northern Illinois

Our sleeper: an offense with upside, but real defensive work

Matt Majkrzak inherits a program moving into the Horizon League and essentially starts with a new team. The coach's Northern Michigan teams emphasized passing and ball security. NIU now has a large group of Division II transfers and experienced Division I additions, including Uzziah Buntyn from South Dakota, veteran Nino Carter-Smith, Cal Klesmit, David Douglas Jr. and Illinois State transfer Jack Daugherty. Max Weisbrod is listed on the roster after a previous stint with Majkrzak, although individual eligibility and availability should be checked before treating any projected rotation as final.

The offensive idea is believable. Torvik's preseason sheet makes NIU the league's third-highest adjusted offense (106.1), but also projects one of the worst defenses (112.5). That split captures the sleeper case and the risk. The official preseason poll ranks the Huskies tenth; Blue Ribbon has them sixth and Torvik seventh. MMH's independent sixth-place, 11–9 projection is a bet that ball movement and experienced skill translate faster than the league expects—not a claim that the rebuild is certain to work.

7. Milwaukee

Health would change almost everything

Milwaukee's 2025–26 season was defined by injuries, so last year's standings are a poor summary of its ceiling. Danilo Jovanovich is back after averaging 12.4 points and 6.1 rebounds in 17 games before his season was interrupted; Chandler Jackson returns after taking on extra responsibility during the injury wave. Tre Norman joins from Marquette and gives the Panthers another perimeter option. John Lovelace Jr., Al Amadou and Nate Malosa supply varied size and athleticism across the forward positions.

Milwaukee has a path to the top four if the important returnees can stay on the floor and its guards avoid the inefficient possessions that plagued stretches of last year. The depth pieces still must establish roles, however, and that is why MMH starts the Panthers seventh rather than treating a healthy roster as an automatic return to contention. This is one of the league's most sensitive projections to preseason injury news.

8. Detroit Mercy

A promising core, with postseason limits

Mark Montgomery has kept more continuity than many Horizon coaches and built around Tyler Spratt, an all-freshman selection who averaged 9.9 points as a rookie. Ayden Carter and Je'kel Cotton give Detroit additional returning perimeter versatility. Jordan Briggs arrives from Wayne State, while Dante Favor brings rebounding from Spring Arbor and Elias Palsson adds shooting from Division II Augustana.

The Tigers need sturdier interior defensive possessions and a second consistent scorer next to Spratt. They can compete for a finish in the upper half, but the program's reported APR-related 2026–27 postseason restriction is a separate, important limitation: regular-season competitiveness should not be conflated with tournament eligibility. MMH places Detroit eighth in a compressed middle tier where tiebreaks and health could move teams several spots.

9. Youngstown State

Shooting could offset another massive reset

Ethan Faulkner faces another heavy roster rebuild, with Jaiden Haynes the lone returnee from last season's team. Linus Holmstrom averaged 11.4 points at VMI and made nearly 40 percent of his threes, giving Youngstown a proven outside threat. Jayden Tyler comes from Wofford, while 6-foot-11 Kelvin Amoako arrives from Division II Indianapolis to establish a more physical interior target. Jeff Nwankwo and Jermaine Coleman provide additional wing and forward options.

The guards must find a workable pecking order quickly and the new frontcourt must protect the defensive glass. MMH is slightly higher on Youngstown than Blue Ribbon because the shooting potential may keep the offense afloat while the roster develops. The downside is clear as well: new combinations and an absence of returning minutes can create steep early-season volatility.

10. Purdue Fort Wayne

Craig gives the Mastodons a dependable first option

DeAndre Craig Jr. is back after averaging 14.0 points and 2.6 assists in 2025–26. His ability to get to spots and finish plays keeps Purdue Fort Wayne competitive even with extensive roster change. FIU transfer Ashton Williamson supplies another ballhandler and Anthony Isaac Jr. offers physical wing and forward play. Edir Ortiz arrives from Seton Hill, while Quentin Morgan and others will be asked to provide frontcourt size.

The question is what happens when Craig is forced to give up the ball. The Mastodons need a reliable second offensive creator and better rebounding to challenge the league's more complete teams. MMH ranks Purdue Fort Wayne tenth, somewhat lower than the official eighth-place pick, because the new supporting cast still has substantial work to do.

11. Cleveland State

Size is the central rebuilding objective

Rob Summers wants a bigger, more physical Vikings team after a season in which opponents scored too easily inside and collected too many second-chance opportunities. The roster is almost entirely new. Jordan Lowery is a possible organizer after arriving from UT Arlington; Micah Bays brings Division II scoring production, while Obie Bronston Jr. and Rayvon Griffith add size at the wings. Derek Vorst and Brandon White give Cleveland State more traditional post bodies than it used last season.

The improvements are logical, but the task is large. Cleveland State needs to slow opponents' two-point efficiency without sacrificing the faster tempo the staff prefers. The new guards also must handle Horizon pressure with few live-game repetitions together. MMH sees room for defensive improvement yet starts Cleveland State eleventh until those combinations prove themselves.

12. IU Indianapolis

Pace alone cannot cover a size deficit

Ben Howlett brought a fast, possession-heavy approach from Division II, but IU Indy won only three Horizon games in his first season. The team still wants to play quickly. The staff has added experience with Gus Etchison, Jason Clarke Jr. and Peyton Heiss on the perimeter, along with Antoine Arnett and Precious Idiaru inside. Idiaru played an important role at Division II national champion Gannon and should help address the size problem immediately.

This roster should be better equipped to survive longer stretches at high speed. But greater depth must translate into defensive rebounds, fewer foul-line trips allowed and a steadier half-court attack when an opponent takes away transition. MMH still puts the Jaguars twelfth at 5–15 while leaving room for them to surprise teams that cannot control tempo.

Players who define the race

Kellen Pickett (Wright State) is the league’s preseason Player of the Year, and his combination of mobility and size makes the Raiders difficult to matchup against. Marcus Hall (Green Bay) is the league’s most bankable proven wing scorer. CJ O’Hara (Wright State) gives the defending champions a second experienced scoring option; Ace Valentine (Robert Morris) could determine how quickly the Colonials’ new offense finds an identity. Danilo Jovanovich (Milwaukee) is the key availability variable in the upper half.

MMH preseason awards

• Projected champion: Wright State
• Player of the Year: Kellen Pickett, Wright State
• Best returning scorer: Marcus Hall, Green Bay
• Impact transfer: CJ O’Hara, Wright State
• Breakout candidate: Darius Livingston, Robert Morris
• Sleeper: Northern Illinois

The MMH view

The three leading programs are close enough for a full season to reshuffle them. Wright State has the best blend of returning structure and new creation, but Robert Morris has an experienced coaching core and Green Bay has Hall. The more intriguing question is whether a newcomer to the conference can move into the top half immediately. NIU’s defensive projection is a serious warning; its offensive projection is exactly why the Huskies belong on a mid-major watchlist.

Related: MMH’s Top 10 Horizon League Players · Northern Illinois Sleeper Preview

Research cut-off: October 9, 2026. The official preseason poll is published by the Horizon League. Roster context comes from current 2026–27 school rosters and the user-provided Blue Ribbon yearbook; Torvik’s preseason order comes from the supplied T-Rank screenshot. MMH rankings, projected records and awards are independent editorial opinions. Projected rotations should be revisited before opening night.