2026-27 Mountain West Preview: New Mexico Leads a Rebuilt League

2026-10-16

The Mountain West has a new map and a familiar question: which team can put dependable guard play around a frontcourt that finishes possessions? New Mexico has the best returning perimeter foundation. Nevada offers an established interior anchor in Elijah Price. Grand Canyon has enough creation and depth to challenge both, even before unresolved eligibility additions enter the forecast.

MMH gives New Mexico a narrow first-place edge. Jake Hall and Uriah Tenette already work together, and Eric Olen has added several useful ways to support them. Nevada follows closely, with Grand Canyon third. Wyoming is the recommended sleeper: its returning Meyer-Bennett-Gores core offers a credible path above the fifth-place positions assigned by both Blue Ribbon and the media poll.

The ten-team league includes Hawaiʻi, UC Davis and UTEP, with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State now in the Pac-12. Grand Canyon joined a year earlier. Each team plays an 18-game double round robin. The conference schedule runs January 2 through March 6; the tournament is March 10-13 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

The outlooks use Blue Ribbon as a baseline, checked against current official rosters and recent reporting through October 16. Starting groups are MMH projections, with brief notes for potential additions and injury-dependent season roles.

MMH projected order and preseason comparisons

These editorial forecasts balance to 90 wins and 90 losses, matching ten teams playing 18 conference games each. Equal projected records are ordered by MMH preference rather than a prediction of a conference tiebreaker. The forecasts are separate from MMH's game-prediction model.

New Mexico edged Grand Canyon 179-178 in the October 7 media poll, although the Lopes received ten first-place votes to the Lobos' nine. Blue Ribbon favors Nevada; the supplied 2027 T-Rank screenshot favors Grand Canyon. Torvik's conference order follows national rank in that image, received October 16. No model update timestamp is visible, so this is a dated snapshot rather than a live feed.

Where MMH differs

Torvik makes Grand Canyon the clearest favorite. The Lopes are 42nd nationally in the supplied image, ahead of New Mexico at 66th and Nevada at 86th. Grand Canyon also has the strongest displayed offense (114.1) and defense (97.3), with a projected 14-4 conference record. That is a stronger endorsement than MMH's third-place, 13-5 forecast. MMH still favors New Mexico's established Hall-Tenette partnership and places Nevada's interior foundation slightly ahead of the Lopes. Grand Canyon's unresolved eligibility additions could change its outlook; the screenshot does not establish which individual players Torvik assumes available.

MMH gives New Mexico and Nevada more conference wins. Torvik projects the Lobos 13-5 and the Wolf Pack 11-7, compared with MMH's 14-4 and 13-5. New Mexico's perimeter continuity and Nevada's Price-Weems core support the stronger calls. The image still places all three leading teams inside the national top 100, so MMH's different champion is a choice among credible contenders.

Wyoming is the strongest upward move near the top. Torvik puts the Cowboys fifth at 9-9 and 121st nationally. Both the media poll and Blue Ribbon also place them fifth. MMH projects fourth at 11-7 because Meyer, Bennett and Gores provide returning production in complementary roles, with Sondors adding frontcourt scoring. The displayed 44.1 percent returning-minutes figure supports the continuity case without measuring how much the young returners will improve.

UNLV's ceiling exceeds its immediate certainty. Torvik has the Rebels fourth, 96th nationally and 11-7, compared with MMH's fifth and 10-8. Their displayed 24.5 percent returning-minutes figure describes a substantially changed group. Ford, Miles, Mack, Kiss and Thomas started the October 7 exhibition; Jones, Williamson, Harris and Dontrez Williams are potential reinforcements once healthy. The team projection does not resolve those individual availability questions.

UC Davis is MMH's biggest upward move by place. The Aggies rise from Torvik's ninth at 6-12 to MMH's seventh at 7-11. Their displayed 53.8 percent returning minutes exceed every team here except Air Force. Sevilla, Fagbemi and Chappell offer a recognizable starting point, but that continuity must translate into interior defense and rebounding. San José State is eighth in both orders, with Torvik forecasting 7-11 and MMH 6-12; the Spartans' health-dependent depth keeps the range wide.

UTEP and Air Force are the more cautious MMH calls. Torvik has UTEP seventh at 7-11 despite 0.0 percent returning minutes. MMH places the Miners ninth at 5-13 while a new group establishes its defense and rotation. Air Force is tenth in both orders, but Torvik's 4-14 is stronger than MMH's 2-16. Its 99.0 percent returning-minutes figure offers continuity for Crispin's new approach without itself resolving last season's defensive problems. Hawaiʻi is sixth in both orders: Torvik projects 8-10 and MMH 9-9, with the displayed 9.9 percent returning minutes underscoring the roster turnover.

Torvik's displayed conference records also balance to 90-90. They remain separate from MMH's independent forecasts; the two balanced sets should not be mixed into a single projected standings table.

Last season: current members in their previous leagues

These rows provide context for the ten current members; they are not a combined 2025-26 Mountain West standings table. Hawaiʻi and UC Davis played in the Big West, and UTEP played in Conference USA. Utah State won both Mountain West championships before departing for the Pac-12. Hawaiʻi won the Big West tournament and reached the NCAA Tournament.

Team-by-team outlook

1. New Mexico — projected 14-4

Eric Olen has the best combination of proven perimeter production and multiple ways to organize the offense. Jake Hall's movement shooting forces defenders to stay attached away from the ball. Uriah Tenette can exploit the resulting space, while Hudson Mayes supplies the strength and rebounding to prevent a three-guard lineup from becoming too small. Hall averaged 16.4 points and made 117 threes last season; this offense has an established centerpiece.

The October 11 exhibition at Oklahoma State offers a useful update on a frontcourt that looked less settled during the summer. Rytis Petraitis started, Federico Grani opened at center, and Fynn Lastring scored 16 points off the bench in a 99-89 win. Chris Howell and Imran Suljanovic also played. Those appearances support including them in the season group; one exhibition does not establish their eventual minutes or a permanent starting lineup.

Petraitis gives Olen a forward who can handle and connect possessions. Lastring offers a different offensive look from Grani, and Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi brings additional shooting after averaging 11.9 points at William & Mary. The concern is finishing defensive possessions: Oklahoma State collected 22 offensive rebounds in the exhibition. New Mexico can win the league with this perimeter group, but its big men must make the defensive glass more dependable.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Fynn Lastring, Tunde Vahlberg Fasasi, Chris Howell, Imran Suljanovic, Dax Hall, Benjamin Schuch, AJ Pierre-Jerome. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Petraitis, Howell and Suljanovic all appeared October 11 after earlier health questions. Lastring is a credible alternative to Grani at center; this projected five matches the exhibition starters.

2. Nevada — projected 13-5

Steve Alford's final season has the league's most convincing returning interior foundation. Elijah Price averaged 12.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.7 blocks, giving Nevada a reliable finisher and a defender who can erase mistakes. Vaughn Weems supplies continuity on the wing, with the potential to build on his stronger finish to last season rather than beginning from scratch.

Styles Phipps and Peter Bandelj change how opponents must defend Nevada's guards. Phipps averaged 13.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists at Pepperdine; Bandelj added 13.0 points and 3.3 assists at Cal Poly. Both can start a possession, which should reduce the pressure on one guard to manufacture every good shot. Price's screening and finishing become more valuable when the ball can reach him from several directions.

Simon Majok supplies a true-center option, while Keyon Kensie Jr. lets Nevada play smaller without abandoning rebounding. The challenge is keeping enough shooting around a Price-Majok frontcourt and translating the new guards' production into efficient conference offense. Blue Ribbon chooses Nevada first, and that is defensible. MMH gives New Mexico a narrow edge because of its established Hall-Tenette backcourt, rather than treating the Wolf Pack's second-place forecast as a meaningful separation.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Keyon Kensie Jr., Peyton White, Cedric Lath, TJ Coulter, Myles Walker, SJ Madison, Hudson Lucas. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Majok supplies size; Kensie can replace him when Nevada needs more mobility and spacing. Alford announced September 24 that this will be his final season as head coach.

3. Grand Canyon — projected 13-5

Bryce Drew has enough supported talent to contend without building the forecast around unresolved additions. Makaih Williams returns after averaging 14.0 points, Dylan Darling brings ball pressure and playmaking, and Jaden Zimmerman arrives from Quinnipiac with an established scoring role. That trio offers several ways to attack a defense before any potential eligibility reinforcement enters the discussion.

Efe Demirel gives the Lopes a returning interior target after shooting 63.0 percent from the field. Omaha Biliew adds athleticism, and Blake Barkley's combination of scoring, rebounding and perimeter touch can change the starting group's shape. Caleb Shaw's shooting, Tyler Behrend's size and Micah Tucker's ballhandling make the bench deeper than a quick glance at the projected five suggests.

The main basketball question is how Drew balances creation and spacing around his big men. Williams and Darling can both operate with the ball, but the supporting wings must keep defenders from crowding the lane. Grand Canyon received more first-place media votes than New Mexico and finished only one poll point behind. MMH's third reflects a strong contention case with more uncertainty in the available perimeter group.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Blake Barkley, Caleb Shaw, Tyler Behrend, Micah Tucker, Amarion Dickerson, Jaqari Miles, Jack Sawyer. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Jaden Henley, Tre Holloman and Dan Skillings Jr. are potential additions pending eligibility resolution and are outside the base playing group. Dickerson's larger role depends on health after last season's hip injury.

4. Wyoming — projected 11-7

Wyoming is MMH's recommended sleeper because its core already has a workable identity. Nasir (Naz) Meyer can score from the wing, Khaden Bennett contributes on the glass and defensively, and Gavin Gores gives Sundance Wicks an efficient interior finisher. All three return, which matters in a league where several opponents are assembling new primary lineups.

Renars Sondors adds frontcourt scoring and a pick-and-pop option after averaging 10.7 points at Louisiana Monroe. Uriyah Rojas supplies backcourt continuity, while Parker Gerrits offers another organizer. Mike Mora's 17.2 points per game came at Division II Cal State Monterey Bay, so that average needs a level adjustment; the appeal is his ability to score and rebound from a forward spot.

The Cowboys beat Northern Colorado 94-68 in their October 11 exhibition. The school reported that Meyer, Bennett and Gores combined for more than 40 points, an encouraging early sign for the returning core. The harder question is whether Wyoming can consistently create good shots against set defenses. More development from Meyer and Gores, plus dependable lead-guard play, could move this team into the top three. Fourth at 11-7 is a measured step above both the media poll and Blue Ribbon.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Parker Gerrits, Canin Jefferson, Mike Mora, Neil Summers, Mattia De Martin, Linus Ruf, Madden Smiley. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Canin Jefferson and Micah Curtis have injury histories noted on the team page. Neither is assigned a guaranteed return date or fixed minutes.

5. UNLV — projected 10-8

Josh Pastner has several ways to improve this team as the season develops, but the immediate group needs to establish dependable offensive possessions. Sebastian Mack can attack the rim, Cam Miles supplies another perimeter scorer, and Terrance Ford Jr. gives UNLV a lead guard after missing last season. Mack scored 25 points in the October 7 exhibition against Utah; Ford played 33 minutes, useful evidence that he is back on the floor.

Jackson Kiss and MJ Thomas started that exhibition in the frontcourt. Kiss's passing and Thomas's rebounding give the Rebels a functional base while the returning players work toward fuller participation. Jeremy Foumena provides a true-center alternative. The provisional starting group below follows the players who actually opened that game rather than assuming every injured player will immediately be available.

Tyrin Jones's rim protection and Issac Williamson's scoring remain important to the season outlook. Their returns would change both the lineup and the ceiling. UNLV falls one place below the media poll and Blue Ribbon here because the supporting cast must cohere while health questions remain. The route upward is clear: restore the returning production, improve shot selection and get more consistent defensive possessions from a much larger group of contributors.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Jeremy Foumena, Kota Suttle Jr., Tyrin Jones, Issac Williamson, Dontrez Williams, Tyler Harris, Moustapha Loum. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Jones (shoulder), Williamson (hamstring), Harris (MCL) and Dontrez Williams did not play October 7. They remain conditional season options. AJ Storr is a potential addition pending eligibility resolution and is outside the base group.

6. Hawaiʻi — projected 9-9

Eran Ganot's first Mountain West season begins with substantial roster turnover after a Big West tournament title and an NCAA appearance. Isaiah Kerr supplies returning perimeter experience, while Tanner Cuff offers the possibility of a large primary ballhandler after a medical redshirt. Cuff's passing can help a new group reach good shots without asking every possession to end in an individual drive.

Chance Trujillo averaged 12.3 points at Division I Utah Tech, and Bol Dengdit brings proven interior production from UC San Diego. Zack Davidson adds skilled frontcourt scoring after an injury-interrupted season at Northern Arizona. This projected group can put size around the ball and offer more than one offensive action on a possession.

Jaden Matingou is another playmaking option, with his 11.9 points and 4.3 assists at Point Loma clearly coming at the Division II level. Houran Dan provides size, while Marcus Adams Jr. offers scoring potential if he sustains a healthy role. The question is how quickly the new pieces defend together and establish an offensive hierarchy. A 9-9 forecast recognizes the available skill without assuming that last season's success transfers automatically to a new roster and conference.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Jaden Matingou, Houran Dan, Marcus Adams Jr., Manie Joses, Kellen Hampton, Aloïs Leyrolles, Lueth Awan. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Cuff returns from a medical redshirt, while Davidson and Adams had injury-affected seasons. These are season projections; no opening-night medical clearance is implied.

7. UC Davis — projected 7-11

UC Davis has a clearer starting point than its eighth-place media selection might imply. Connor Sevilla averaged 13.3 points and shot 39.9 percent from three. Brayden Fagbemi supplied 4.2 assists and 2.0 steals per game, giving Jim Les a returning guard who can both organize possessions and disrupt the opponent's first action. Their partnership offers a credible foundation for the move from the Big West.

Isaiah Chappell provides frontcourt continuity and spacing. Veniamin Abosi adds size on the wing, and Aleks Szymczyk offers a conventional center option. The Aggies can also use Omer Suljanovic for a different offensive frontcourt look, with Jalen Stokes positioned to handle more responsibility on the perimeter.

The challenge is turning those complementary skills into enough interior scoring and defensive rebounding against the league's larger frontcourts. A productive Sevilla-Fagbemi backcourt keeps UC Davis competitive; a meaningful step from Chappell, Stokes or Suljanovic could lift it toward the middle. MMH's seventh matches Blue Ribbon and sits one place above the media poll. This is a plausible sleeper alternative, with a modest base forecast and a recognizable route to improvement.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Jalen Stokes, Omer Suljanovic, Clarence Massamba, Ylan Esso-Essis, Chase Rawlins, Julian Margrave, Caspian Jones. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Esso-Essis is conditional depth following back rehabilitation. Stokes or Omer Suljanovic can enter a smaller starting group if Les prefers more offense.

8. San José State — projected 6-12

Tim Miles has a more promising offensive group than last season's record suggests. Joey Chammaa can initiate the offense after a productive year at Arkansas State, Pasha Goodarzi offers a returning shooter, and Mookie Cook adds size and versatility. Zine Eddine Bedri's 12.8 points and 7.4 rebounds at Columbia give the Spartans an experienced interior focal point.

The August Costa Rica trip provided an early look at Chammaa, Cook and Bedri together. Chammaa led the scoring in the first game, while freshman Rokiem Green had a productive second outing. Those are foreign-tour performances, useful for identifying involvement but too small and different a setting to become season statistical expectations.

JaVaughn Hannah adds scoring potential if he can sustain a healthy season after playing only twice last year. Robert Vaihola and Luke Howard offer further frontcourt upside following knee rehabilitation. That creates a wider range of outcomes than a simple eighth-place ranking conveys. The key is availability: if enough of those options play consistently, San José State can challenge the middle of the standings. The base projection remains 6-12 because dependable depth and defensive rebounding still need to be demonstrated.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Robert Vaihola, KJ Martin Jr., Rokiem Green, Cade Krueger, Luke Howard, Oliver Kullamäe, Brayden Barrett. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Hannah, Vaihola and Howard carry concise health qualifications. Mekhi Mason is a September addition, but a fifth playing season is not independently verified here; keep him as a potential addition. Aurèle Brena-Chemille is absent from the current roster and outside the base group.

9. UTEP — projected 5-13

Joe Golding has a completely new group for UTEP's return to a western conference schedule. Leif Moeller offers an appealing starting point: a large lead guard who averaged 10.8 points and 4.0 assists at Evansville. Jace Whiting and Reese Miller add experienced secondary ballhandling, giving the Miners a chance to share creation rather than depend on one guard to break down every defense.

Augusto Cassia has the opportunity for a larger role after limited offensive responsibility at Ole Miss. Reid Cason and Janusz Ratowski provide conventional interior size. Ryan Jackson Jr. can defend and finish on the wing, while junior-college scorer Cam McDaniels supplies another perimeter option. The group has more offensive variety than a ninth-place projection alone might suggest.

The concern is translating that variety into a settled rotation and a reliable defense. Almost every key player is adjusting to new teammates, and the frontcourt needs to establish consistent rebounding. The August trip to Juárez provided useful shared possessions; it cannot settle how this team will perform against Mountain West opponents. UTEP can beat this forecast if Moeller organizes efficient offense and the interior group provides enough resistance to keep those guards in competitive games.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Ryan Jackson Jr., Cam McDaniels, Janusz Ratowski, Mikey Kelvin II, Isaiah Ward, Donovan Criss, Delano Tarpley. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Kelvin is conditional depth after missing last season with injury. The current roster also includes international freshmen Ivan Perasovic and Youssouf Traore.

10. Air Force — projected 2-16

Joe Crispin inherits a 3-29 team but also an unusually intact returning group. Kam Sanders can create off the dribble, Lucas Hobin offers shooting from a large perimeter position, and Caleb Walker provides a physical interior target. The new staff's emphasis on pace and more aggressive shooting gives those players a different framework for improvement.

Sanders averaged 12.5 points and 3.8 assists as a freshman, while Hobin made 70 threes. Ethan Greenberg adds another returning shooter, and Eli Robinson can rebound and connect possessions. Riley Dering and Wesley Celichowski offer additional frontcourt options, useful for the deeper rotation Crispin wants to employ.

The October open-practice reporting reinforced that change in style and identified six freshmen, including Tre Keene, who was not part of the yearbook's five-player freshman list. Still, returning production from a winless conference season does not by itself solve the defense or the rebounding. Air Force needs the faster offense to generate better shots while avoiding costly live-ball turnovers. Two conference wins is the cautious starting point; meaningful development from Sanders and Hobin could make the Falcons a more difficult opponent well before it produces a large jump in the standings.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Riley Dering, Wesley Celichowski, Kolby Gilles, A.J. Patterson, Justin Hinds, Elliott Taite, Brendan Martin. Additional season and development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: The roster offers many more options than a typical short rotation. Development entries on the team page do not imply that all 20 players will play regular minutes.

Players and races to follow

Jake Hall is MMH's preseason player-of-the-year choice. Price is the strongest interior challenger, and Williams gives Grand Canyon an established scorer around whom a title-level offense can take shape. Darling's playmaking and Meyer's potential second-year jump round out the immediate conversation. See the Mountain West Top 10 for the full editorial list.

The most interesting race may be the one behind the leading three. Wyoming's returning group, UNLV's health-dependent upside and Hawaiʻi's collection of new offensive pieces can all make a top-half case. UC Davis provides a credible alternative if the Sevilla-Fagbemi backcourt carries smoothly into the new league. The Wyoming sleeper draft explains MMH's preferred choice.

Sources and roster note

Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook 2026-27 supplies the baseline team analysis and prior-season player statistics. Current official team rosters control names, listed heights and class years. Lower-division, junior-college, international, prep and older-season statistics are labeled on the team pages.

• User-supplied 2027 T-Rank Mountain West screenshot, received October 16; no update timestamp visible. Conference order and statistics are transcribed from that image.
• Mountain West official media poll, October 7
• Mountain West conference schedule, September 29
• New Mexico exhibition recap, October 11
• UNLV official October 7 box score
• Wyoming's October 15 update
• San José State's September 10 Mason announcement

Roster announcements and preseason awards do not independently establish eligibility or medical clearance. Potential additions can strengthen a team's outlook later; they are not automatically counted as available contributors in this draft.