2026-27 Missouri Valley Preview: Three Favorites, Several Ways to Challenge

2026-10-15

The Missouri Valley enters 2026-27 with three credible favorites and several different ways to challenge them. Illinois State has the league's strongest established interior scorer and an experienced backcourt. UIC returns a versatile group that reached the conference tournament final. Murray State has Roman Domon and a remodeled supporting cast with enough offensive potential to justify the official poll's first-place vote.

MMH gives Illinois State a narrow edge over UIC and Murray State. Chase Walker offers a dependable place to begin possessions, Johnny Kinziger supplies continuity at point guard, and Xavier transfer Malik Messina-Moore adds another experienced creator. UIC's returning wings and Murray State's offensive talent keep the margin small.

Northern Iowa is the recommended sleeper in this draft. Kyle Green inherits a different team from the one that won Arch Madness, but Greyson Uelmen, Tate McCubbin and Isaiah Johnson-Arigu give the Panthers a plausible route into the upper half. Valparaiso is the more established challenger, with JT Pettigrew and Rakim Chaney providing a young core that already produced in this league.

The outlooks use Blue Ribbon as a starting point, checked against current official rosters and relevant reporting through October 15. Starting groups are MMH projections. Brief availability notes identify possible additions or injury-dependent roles without treating them as guaranteed contributors.

MMH projected order and preseason comparisons

The 20-game forecasts balance to 110 wins and 110 losses, matching an 11-team double round robin. They are editorial projections, separate from MMH's game-prediction model. Teams with the same forecasted record are placed in MMH's preferred order; this is not a prediction of the eventual conference tiebreaker.

The October 13 official MVC release lists only the top six poll teams. “Not listed” preserves that limitation rather than assigning unsupported places seven through eleven. The electorate includes coaches, athletics communications staff and media, so the column is labeled MVC poll. Torvik's conference order is derived from national rankings in the supplied 2027 T-Rank screenshot, received October 15. It is a dated comparison, not a live feed.

Where the comparisons change the conversation

The top three are close. Torvik puts UIC 100th nationally, Illinois State 106th and Murray State 107th, with all three projected 13-7 in conference play. Blue Ribbon favors UIC; the MVC poll favors Murray State. MMH's Illinois State pick rests on Walker's interior production, Kinziger's organization and the addition of Messina-Moore. It is a modest preference among contenders, not a claim that the Redbirds have separated from the field.

UIC has the continuity advantage. Its displayed 59.0 percent returning-minutes figure leads the league. Andy Johnson, Ahmad Henderson II, Rashund Washington Jr. and Mekhi Lowery provide different offensive and defensive skills. Asa Thomas's season-ending absence removes an expected shooting piece, but Benny Gealer gives Rob Ehsan another experienced perimeter option. The screenshot does not establish which individual players its model assumes are available.

Murray State's challenge is balance. The Racers have the highest displayed adjusted offense among these teams at 111.8. Their 105.4 adjusted defense is less favorable than UIC's 102.5 or Illinois State's 103.2. Domon and Christian Jones can make the attack dangerous; defensive rebounding and reliable guard decisions will help determine whether the official favorite finishes first.

Northern Iowa is the largest move from Blue Ribbon. The Panthers rise from tenth in the yearbook to sixth in MMH's order. Torvik goes further, placing them fifth nationally within the league and projecting 12-8. That supports the upside case, while the displayed 9.1 percent returning-minutes figure explains the caution. A new coach and new primary lineup must establish dependable execution before an upper-tier finish becomes the expectation.

Valparaiso is MMH's strongest disagreement with Torvik's middle. MMH has the Beacons fourth at 12-8; Torvik has them seventh by national rank at 10-10. Pettigrew's second-year potential and Chaney's return underpin the stronger call. Drake also shows 10-10 in the image, so the model's sixth-versus-seventh order should not be presented as a large expected win gap.

Bradley's injuries add weight to the caution in Torvik's eighth-place, 8-12 projection. Southern Illinois has the best displayed adjusted defense in the screenshot at 101.6, but its 99.2 offense makes shot creation the greater concern. Indiana State's 0.0 percent returning-minutes figure describes a complete rebuild; it does not by itself measure the ability of the incoming group. The screenshot's conference records balance to 110-110 and are retained separately from MMH's forecast.

Last season's conference standings

Belmont won the regular-season championship. Northern Iowa won the conference tournament and represented the league in the NCAA Tournament. These are regular-season conference records; tied teams are grouped without making a new tiebreaker claim.

Team-by-team outlook

1. Illinois State — projected 15-5

Ryan Pedon's best argument for a championship is how naturally the main pieces fit. Walker can score on the block and pass when the defense sends help. Kinziger can get the Redbirds into their offense, and Messina-Moore's 10.9 points and 3.8 assists per game at Xavier give Illinois State another guard who has already handled substantial responsibility. Opponents should have a harder time solving the offense by trapping one ballhandler.

Klabo's shooting supplies space around Walker, while Garang can rebound from the wing. Cleveland offers a larger alternative at forward after producing 18.8 points and 11.3 rebounds per game at Division III Illinois Wesleyan. That production needs a level adjustment, but the skill it represents matters: Illinois State needs possessions finished on the glass as well as started efficiently in the post.

Burch and King create credible guard alternatives. The challenge is distributing touches and maintaining perimeter defense with several players accustomed to scoring. MMH places the Redbirds first because their combination of interior offense and experienced guard play gives them a reliable foundation for a long conference schedule.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Noah Cleveland, Demarion Burch, Zaxton King, Louie Semona III, Nick Allen, Isaac Ericksen, Jordan Williams. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Semona is included as a frontcourt option with his previous back trouble noted. Cleveland can replace a wing in the starting group when more size is needed.

2. UIC — projected 14-6

UIC can change the shape of a game without replacing its core. Henderson supplies scoring and ballhandling, Johnson can stretch the floor, Washington attacks through contact, and Lowery rebounds and connects possessions. Those complementary skills make Ehsan's team more than a collection of returning points.

Scroggins gives the Flames a shot-blocking and finishing option inside, with Nathaniel providing familiar frontcourt production. Gealer's shooting matters after Thomas's injury, and Cupps can take some organizing responsibility off Henderson. A smaller group featuring Gealer could become as important as the projected starting five, particularly when UIC needs more space around its attacking wings.

The Flames have enough proven pieces to win the league. Their next step is producing dependable half-court offense when opponents prevent transition chances and make the guards finish over size. MMH keeps UIC just behind Illinois State, with the strongest continuity case among the three leading contenders.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Benny Gealer, Gabe Cupps, Jayce Nathaniel, Nano Barrantes, Elijah Garrett, Dikembe Shaw, DJ Hudson. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Thomas is outside the playing projection after UIC's September 8 announcement ruled him out for the season following hip surgery.

3. Murray State — projected 14-6

Domon's size and shooting give Ryan Miller an offensive centerpiece who does not have to be confined to one position. He averaged 14.2 points and 5.2 rebounds as a freshman and can pull bigger defenders away from the basket. Murray State's ceiling rises if he can keep that efficiency while becoming the focus of every opponent's plan.

Jones brings established point-guard production from George Washington. Magwood has the opportunity to turn a limited Auburn role into a larger one, but his former program should not substitute for evidence that he can run a college offense consistently. The combination has potential; it still must prove that its creation leads to good possessions for everyone else.

Rogers and Tupuola provide experienced interior support, while Courbon can make the lineup smaller and improve its spacing. Shorter and Shtolzberg add veteran guard alternatives, with a substantial international freshman group behind them. The Racers are a legitimate title choice. MMH's third-place call reflects the amount of new guard and frontcourt coordination required, not a shortage of scoring talent.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Mathis Courbon, Brayden Shorter, Ben Shtolzberg, Talis Soulhac, Pavle Nikolic, Jonas Boulefaa, Mark Padjen. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Shtolzberg returns from a redshirt year. Soulhac, Nikolic, Boulefaa and Padjen are additional options as they adapt to college play; their roles are not assumed to be settled.

4. Valparaiso — projected 12-8

Roger Powell Jr. has a young pair worth building around. Pettigrew already rebounds and scores at a level that can change conference games; Chaney gives the Beacons a returning guard who can create a shot and threaten defenses from outside. Their next step is turning promising stretches into the dependable possessions that decide close games.

McNair adds continuity, while Alocen brings size on the wing and familiarity with MVC opponents. Hopoi and Yu offer different interior combinations beside Pettigrew. That is useful after Tupuola's departure: Valpo needs someone to defend the basket and clean up misses without crowding its best scorer's working space.

Garrett and Moles arrive with scoring records from junior college and NAIA competition. They provide options rather than automatic replacements for departed production. Servilus can contribute physical perimeter play, and Walker is a developing frontcourt piece. Fourth is an optimistic but grounded forecast: the Beacons have an identifiable core, and Pettigrew's improvement could matter more than a roster's collection of prior-school names.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Kai Yu, Terron Garrett, Dylan Moles, Sader Servilus, Kobe Walker, Rajan Roberts, Hudson Scroggins. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Curry remains a potential future contributor after ACL rehabilitation and a reported redshirt plan; he is outside this season's base playing projection.

5. Belmont — projected 11-9

Evan Bradds takes over a program that won 26 games and the regular-season title, but the new Bruins have to establish their own source of offense. Smiley's shooting and playmaking and Jenkins's ability to finish on the move give Belmont a useful returning perimeter foundation. Neither should have to manufacture every difficult possession alone.

The October 8 exhibition at Duke provided a current look at the group. West, Smiley, Jenkins, Sage and Neugebauer started. West's participation is useful evidence after offseason surgery, while Sage's place in the first group highlights the opportunity for the Pittsburg State transfer. Zobrist led Belmont with 11 points off the bench. One exhibition does not establish a season's hierarchy, but it is more relevant to the opening lineup than an older paper projection.

Fish gives Bradds another physical forward, and Ristic supplies guard depth. Belmont still needs to prove it can defend and rebound against the league's stronger frontcourts while preserving enough shooting. MMH has the Bruins fifth, close enough to move higher if the rebuilt supporting cast gives Smiley and Jenkins consistent help.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Eoin Dillon, Kayden Fish, Matthew Zobrist, Aleksa Ristic, Cooper Haynes, Graydon Lemke, Charlie Gersmehl. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Dillon and Lemke remain on the current roster but did not appear in the Duke box score. Dillon's shooting could materially change the frontcourt mix; the omission alone does not establish an injury or a season absence.

6. Northern Iowa — projected 10-10

Green's challenge is to establish a new team's habits without the returning-minutes cushion often associated with a coaching transition. Uelmen supplies the clearest offensive starting point: the North Dakota transfer averaged 16.8 points, and his ability to create shots should keep the Panthers from relying entirely on motion and contested late-clock attempts.

McCubbin adds length and perimeter scoring. Johnson-Arigu can finish inside and play through contact, while Smikle supplies rebounding and a stronger interior presence. Vis gives the first group another experienced guard. That combination has enough complementary skills to support a better finish than Blue Ribbon's tenth-place forecast.

The returning reserves are also relevant. Pock can provide spacing, Hutchins perimeter depth, and Born another ballhandling option. Green must determine which combinations defend without sacrificing the shooting Uelmen needs around him. Sixth at 10-10 is MMH's baseline; a push into the upper group is the sleeper case. Torvik's fifth-place order and 12-8 record show that this optimism has support beyond a coaching narrative.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Kyle Pock, Geon Hutchins, Redek Born, Jalen Wilson, Jules Isebaert, Levi Valdo, Jaydon Kimbrough. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Courbat could provide additional depth if available after last season's injury absence. He is outside the base rotation until there is clearer return information.

7. Drake — projected 10-10

Drake's path upward begins with making its possessions more complete. Larson and Shetlar give Eric Henderson returning perimeter production, and Shetlar's 77 made threes can punish defenses that collapse toward the lane. Kindell adds another guard who can initiate offense, allowing Larson to create from different spots rather than carry every possession.

The frontcourt additions are central to the improvement case. Carroll averaged 7.9 rebounds at Morehead State, and Oldham averaged 7.4 at Denver. Those figures are from separate teams, not an aggregate forecast, but they point toward the skill Drake sought. Burns adds another rebounder from junior college, while Goodbary provides returning interior size.

Alia's experience and rebounding give the Bulldogs a useful smaller alternative. The question is whether this group can turn extra stops and recovered misses into efficient offense against set defenses. MMH projects a move from six conference wins to ten. More is possible if the new frontcourt stabilizes the defense and Larson and Shetlar receive steady creation help.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Andrew Alia, Justin Burns, Griffen Goodbary, Bryson Bahl, LJ Rush, Dothan Ijadimbola, Gio Quiles. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Flemons could provide additional interior depth as recovery from reported June foot surgery allows. He is outside the base rotation rather than assigned promised opening minutes.

8. Bradley — projected 8-12

Brian Wardle has several forwards who can score and rebound, but the backcourt has become a more demanding problem. Gerganov's season-ending ACL injury removes an expected point-guard option. Gaspà now has an opportunity to take on substantial organizing responsibility immediately, with Payton offering an experienced secondary creator.

Alarie's 10.3 points and 7.4 rebounds came in an 11-game Northeastern sample before a shoulder injury. Grill arrives from Division II Fort Hays State, and Williams and Thornbrue bring junior-college production. These are useful options, but the different levels and roles make it unwise to add their scoring averages and assume a finished MVC offense.

Ibukunoluwa and Guimarães can help with interior size, and Richardson has a larger development opportunity on the perimeter. Bradley can outperform eighth if the guards produce reliable possessions and the new forwards defend well together. For now, MMH gives greater weight to the disruption of the intended group and the amount of creation that still has to be established.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Noah Williams, Ben Thornbrue, Dietrich Richardson, Gustavo Guimarães, Jackson Seastrunk, Dimitrije Pavlovic, Timoty van der Knaap. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: October 13 reporting gives van der Knaap a four-to-six-week recovery estimate for a foot injury. He is a conditional season rotation option, outside the opening five. That estimate is not a confirmed return date.

9. Southern Illinois — projected 7-13

Scott Nagy's immediate task is to find enough creation to support a competitive defensive team. Haynes provides a returning ballhandler, but Southern Illinois needs more than one player who can bend a defense. Fugate, Hill and McClure bring scoring from NAIA, Division II and junior-college competition, respectively. Their opportunity is substantial; translating that production to this league is the test.

The projected group emphasizes size around Haynes. Hill can pass from the frontcourt, McClure provides a shooting option, and Fugate can contribute from the wing. Pikaar and Webber give the Salukis different interior combinations. Hawkins supplies another experienced guard, while Walsh and Pauliukonis are young depth options after redshirt seasons.

Torvik's favorable defensive projection is a reason to keep SIU in close games, but the offense must do enough with those opportunities. MMH's ninth-place call assumes the currently supported group needs time to establish dependable perimeter scoring. If the newcomers adjust quickly, the Salukis have a route toward the middle.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: Jaheem Webber, Caden Hawkins, Luke Walsh, Daniel Pauliukonis, Luke Susko, Jeremiah Jackson, Ty Laur. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Gilliland was part of SIU's July team introduction, but the freshly retrieved current roster data omits him. He is a potential additional guard, outside this base projection; no departure or eligibility decision is being asserted.

10. Indiana State — projected 5-15

Matthew Graves is building almost every playing relationship from the beginning. Gregory and White give the Sycamores experienced guards, and Mitchell adds a Division I scorer on the wing. That provides an understandable offensive outline despite the complete turnover in last season's playing minutes.

Cooper offers a different kind of help. His 5.8 assists per game at NAIA Oregon Tech show the passing responsibility he handled there, but the speed and size of MVC defenses will test how much of that role transfers. Calamita adds interior strength from Germany, while Vlajic gives Graves another frontcourt option. McQuillan and Pritzl supply additional scoring and shooting from lower-division programs.

Indiana State's October media-day announcement selected Gregory and Cooper as player representatives, reinforcing their place in the team's plans. The next issue is whether the rebuilt group can defend and rebound well enough to make its guard scoring matter. MMH puts the Sycamores tenth at 5-15, with room to improve if their many new pieces become a functional team quickly.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: EJ McQuillan, Greyson Pritzl, Aleksa Vlajic, Duce Paschal, Chance Puryear, Martin Kaupanger, EJ Hazelett III. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Several younger players provide additional depth. Their inclusion on the roster does not establish a regular role, and no projected minutes are assigned.

11. Evansville — projected 4-16

Quinet and Casey give Evansville a starting point that last-place forecasts can obscure. Quinet can organize the offense, and Casey supplies experienced frontcourt scoring. The October 11 exhibition at Austin Peay showed both working in the current group: Quinet had 25 points and seven assists, while Casey finished with nine points and nine rebounds. Those are single-game exhibition totals, not season averages.

Langenfeld offers perimeter size, Riek arrives with junior-college shooting production, and Winther adds another experienced frontcourt option. Dyson-Merwe's appearance in the exhibition is useful after last season's hand injury. Together, the big men should allow David Ragland to change combinations rather than depend on one interior player staying out of foul trouble.

The challenge is finishing possessions and games. Evansville went scoreless over the final 5:20 at Austin Peay, a reminder that an encouraging individual performance still needs dependable team execution around it. Ellspermann and the young guards provide more possibilities. MMH projects the Aces eleventh because perimeter depth and sustained defensive quality remain less established than those of the teams above them.

Projected starting group

Other rotation options: James Dyson-Merwe, Luke Ellspermann, Junior Kemm, Caden Symons, Aaron Gutman, David Nejezchleb, Yannick Pinas. Additional development options are identified on the team page.

Availability and depth: Kemm and Symons also appeared in the October 11 exhibition. The young and international additions provide further options as roles develop.

The March test

The league's 20-game schedule should expose more than a team's best five players. Illinois State's shot creation, UIC's continuity and Murray State's scoring talent provide different ways to reach the top. Valparaiso can challenge through the growth of its core, while Belmont and Northern Iowa must establish new combinations around useful returning or incoming pieces.

Arch Madness is scheduled for March 4-7 in St. Louis, with the top ten teams qualifying. For the contenders, a good regular season must lead to reliable tournament possessions. For the rest, the route upward begins with guard decisions, defensive rebounding and useful depth that can survive difficult road stretches.

Related: MVC Top 10 Players · Northern Iowa sleeper outlook

Sources and projection notes

Blue Ribbon's 2026-27 MVC chapter supplied the preseason baseline and historical player production. Current school rosters and dated releases were used to update the playing groups. Positions and classes follow current school listings. Transfers' prior-season numbers belong to their previous programs; Division II, Division III, NAIA, junior-college and international figures are identified in the team-page data. Exhibition totals are explicitly labeled.

The principal updates include the October 13 MVC poll, UIC's Thomas injury announcement, Messina-Moore's official bio, Belmont's October 8 box score, Evansville's October 11 recap, and Dave Eminian's October Bradley reporting. The supplied Torvik image is a snapshot received October 15, with no model update timestamp visible. These comparisons do not establish individual eligibility or medical clearance.