2026–27 Northeast Conference Preview: LIU's Talent, Mercyhurst's Continuity and a New Haven Sleeper
2026-10-20
There is no avoiding the question hanging over the Northeast Conference: did LIU reload too well for the rest of the league to keep up? Rod Strickland took the Sharks to both NEC titles and the NCAA Tournament last March, then replaced graduating stars with three transfers selected to the 2026–27 preseason All-NEC team. Mercyhurst has a less complicated path to contention, built around a proven returning lead guard. Le Moyne has new scoring options, Central Connecticut has an entirely different offensive core, and last year's NEC newcomer, New Haven, might be better than its ninth-place coaches' poll projection suggests.
MMH picks LIU to win the league, Mercyhurst to finish second, and New Haven as the sleeper. The forecasts below are independent editorial judgments made before the season, not outputs of the MMH in-season game model. Sources for the comparison are the official October 19 NEC preseason poll, Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook 2026–27, and the 2027 Bart Torvik preseason projections shared with MMH on October 20. We do not reproduce the yearbook's scouting reports or any proprietary model formulas.
MMH projected NEC order
| MMH | School | MMH projected NEC | 2025–26 NEC | Coaches | Torvik | Blue Ribbon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LIU | 12–4 | 15–3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Mercyhurst | 11–5 | 10–8 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Le Moyne | 10–6 | 10–8 | T-3 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | New Haven | 9–7 | 9–9 | 9 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Central Connecticut | 9–7 | 12–6 | T-3 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Wagner | 8–8 | 8–10 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 7 | FDU | 5–11 | 8–10 | T-6 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Stonehill | 5–11 | 8–10 | T-6 | 8 | 9 |
| 9 | Chicago State | 3–13 | 5–13 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
These 16-game conference forecasts balance to 72 wins and 72 losses. Equal records do not imply an official NEC tiebreak determination; the displayed order is MMH's preseason ranking. The Torvik column is the order of NEC teams within the screenshot supplied October 20, not an MMH calculation. Torvik projected LIU and Mercyhurst at 10–6 each, Le Moyne at 8–8 and the other six teams at 7–9. The coaching poll is a voting order without predicted records. Historical 2025–26 records are from the NEC's final standings.
Where MMH differs
New Haven is the bet. The coaches voted the Chargers ninth, Blue Ribbon projects eighth, Torvik ranks their preseason profile fourth, and MMH also puts them fourth. A fifth-place finish at 9–9 in the program's first NEC season, unusually broad player retention and a team already accustomed to winning low-scoring games make the last-place coaches' pick hard for us to embrace. This is an upside pick, not a claim that the offense has solved its limitations. Read MMH's New Haven sleeper analysis.
The top three have unusually broad agreement. LIU, Mercyhurst and Le Moyne are also 1–2–3 in Blue Ribbon and the Torvik snapshot; the coaches have Le Moyne tied for third. Chicago State is the reverse disagreement: Blue Ribbon is relatively optimistic at sixth, but Torvik has the Cougars ninth. A deep collection of small-college scorers creates upside, while an unconfirmed final roster and the challenge of moving that production into Division I favor caution. MMH starts Chicago State ninth rather than pretending the projected output has been proven.
Team-by-team outlook
1. LIU — The favorite has a new face
MMH: 12–4 | 2025–26: 15–3
LIU won 24 games, swept the NEC titles and earned the conference's NCAA bid last year. Its three senior All-NEC standouts are gone, but the replacement talent looks unusually strong for the league. Vasean Allette, the former Old Dominion and TCU guard, attacks gaps and makes plays for others; he averaged 11.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.5 assists at TCU in 2024–25. Daquan Davis averaged 8.8 points at Florida State before an injury-shortened stop at Providence. Jahki Howard gives the Sharks a 6-foot-7 athletic finisher from Auburn and Utah. All three received preseason all-league recognition. NEC release
The frontcourt is intriguing rather than settled. Matt and Ryan Bewley bring size and once-celebrated recruiting profiles, but scouting expectations should not be mistaken for proven collegiate production. Josh Pickett and Deshawn Jean-Charles can help distribute perimeter minutes. Strickland has proven that his program can win with pressure and athletic guard play, yet this is still a roster introducing 13 new players. The biggest risk is the number of new roles: three established names must fit together without creating a turnover-prone attack or sacrificing defensive rotations. The talent earns LIU the top line; the chemistry decides its margin over Mercyhurst. LIU roster
2. Mercyhurst — The strongest continuity at the top
MMH: 11–5 | 2025–26: 10–8
Mercyhurst reached last season's NEC Tournament final, and unlike several opponents it brings back an established offensive centerpiece. Jake Lemelman scored 475 points in 34 games and recorded 104 assists in 2025–26. His willingness to shoot off the catch and create for teammates makes the Lakers difficult to load up against. Tennessee Rainwater, a 6-foot-7 transfer from Le Moyne, averaged 9.8 points and 4.3 rebounds; he shot 58 percent from the floor and 50 percent from three in a selective sample. The pairing creates a credible inside-out offense. Lemelman bio · Rainwater bio
Coach Gary Manchel adds veteran guards Daemar Kelly and Marcus Jackson and frontcourt help from Johnathon Pierce and Deraje Agbaosi. That combination should let the Lakers avoid the big offensive drop-offs associated with a one-creator team. The counterargument is that LIU's sheer athletic talent may pressure the ball better than last year's group. The Lakers will need clean transition defense and more decisive defensive rebounding if Lemelman and Rainwater are to settle games in the half court. MMH picks them as the strongest challenger, not a distant second. Mercyhurst roster
3. Le Moyne — New guards, familiar expectations
MMH: 10–6 | 2025–26: 10–8
Le Moyne's record last winter underplayed how competitive the Dolphins were. They doubled their previous league win total, and several defeats were narrow. Now Nate Champion must merge nine Division I transfers with only three returners. Jayden Teat, who has been at Utah and Sacramento State, is a potential lead guard; Damien King from UT Martin adds a strong 6-foot-4 perimeter option. Ametri Moss and Kole Williams provide alternative handling and scoring combinations. There should be more ways to initiate offense even with Tennessee Rainwater now at Mercyhurst. NEC preseason overview · Le Moyne roster
Up front, Kaden Stuckey, Przemek Hartman and Trevor Roe give the Dolphins varied size, but depth on paper is not the same as defensive communication. Champion's challenge is to create a shot hierarchy early while maintaining the rebounding and interior discipline needed to win NEC road games. If Teat and King grow into complementary creators, this team has a title-contender ceiling. MMH sees the Dolphins as the most likely third contender, just ahead of the league's crowded middle.
4. New Haven — MMH's sleeper
MMH: 9–7 | 2025–26: 9–9
A ninth-place coaches' projection looks harsh for a program that finished fifth in its first NEC season and allowed only 66.3 points per game, the league's stingiest overall scoring defense. More importantly, Ted Hotaling returns all 11 freshmen from a roster that relied heavily on first-year players. Teshaun Steele earned NEC All-Rookie honors; Kheni Briggs has enough scoring upside to take over a game, including a 29-point outing at Saint Francis last season. Danny Young Jr., Faquir Mosley and Moussa Camara give the Chargers options around their young core. New Haven roster · NEC preseason overview
This is not a prediction of an explosive offense. Steele averaged 3.9 points as a freshman, and New Haven scored only 64.9 a game overall; better spacing and shot creation are required to move beyond .500. But the returning experience lowers the usual year-to-year uncertainty for a young roster, and last year's defense offers a foundation that should travel. Torvik places New Haven fourth among NEC teams while the coaches have it ninth. MMH sides with the upside of retention and continuity and takes the Chargers fourth. Read the full sleeper article.
5. Central Connecticut — A rebuild that cannot be underestimated
MMH: 9–7 | 2025–26: 12–6
Patrick Sellers has taken Central Connecticut to a 39–9 NEC record over three seasons, a stronger recent coaching résumé than almost anyone else in the league. His challenge now is replacing last season's four leading scorers, including conference Player of the Year Darin Smith Jr. The recruiting response is assertive. Jhace Johnson scored 13.8 points and averaged 4.7 assists at Cochise College; Raphel Laurent averaged 22.4 points at Division III UMass Boston; Victor Payne Jr. brings NEC experience from Saint Francis. James Jones, Roddy Jones and Ashton Reynolds return to provide some continuity. NEC coaches poll commentary
The offense has raw ingredients that could become one of the conference's best, but those numbers come from different levels of basketball and must be translated cautiously. Johnson's ability to dictate pace will matter as much as Laurent's scoring. With Jacori Ervin and Brayden Jackson helping rebuild the interior, the defensive glass and foul discipline will be early tests. We rank CCSU fifth, below the coaches' tie for third but not because we doubt Sellers. Rather, the talent must build fresh habits while the two teams immediately ahead have clearer continuity or an established transfer pairing. CCSU roster
6. Wagner — Experience everywhere, fit still to prove
MMH: 8–8 | 2025–26: 8–10
Dwan McMillan takes over full-time after last season's semifinal run and has rebuilt the roster with veterans from a wide range of leagues. Cam Estevez, previously at Rhode Island and Fairfield, has shot approximately 38 percent from three in his college career. His presence should help define the perimeter spacing. Taj Bryant adds guard experience; Ryan Pettis and Laymen McGrady are additional options to create pressure and attack closeouts. Wagner roster · Estevez bio
The frontcourt is large and unusually varied. Youssouf Singarè has high-major experience, while 7-foot-1 William Patterson Jr. gives Wagner another traditional interior body. But impressive résumés are not guarantees of 25 productive minutes a night: Patterson appeared in only seven games at New Orleans in 2025–26, and playing two bigs together can squeeze spacing. MMH slots Wagner sixth because the roster looks capable of making opponents uncomfortable yet still must demonstrate a dependable half-court creator. A finish above .500 is plausible if the perimeter additions settle quickly.
7. FDU — A tougher frontcourt, a new backcourt
MMH: 5–11 | 2025–26: 8–10
Jack Castleberry wants faster play and more shots at the rim after a 2025–26 team struggled from three and failed to finish above .500 in the league. The most dependable returnee is David Jevtic, the NEC Rookie of the Year. At 6-foot-8, he can give the offense a pivot point while Raysean Johnson supplies energetic guard defense. But the new scoring hierarchy is unsettled: JR Jacobs averaged 13.4 points at Division II Georgia Southwestern, while Vophcy Prophete posted 15.8 at Bishop State and Austin Ratliff averaged 11.8 and 6.6 boards at Hinds Community College. FDU roster release
Pavle Stosic, Bol Agu and Travis Torain make a more flexible collection of bigs than FDU featured last season. Still, an NEC team hoping to play faster cannot afford to trade layups for turnovers. If Jacobs creates clean possessions and Jevtic makes the expected second-year leap, FDU could climb toward fifth. Our seventh-place ranking reflects the combined risk of high roster turnover and proving that productive lower-level scorers can handle Division I pressure.
8. Stonehill — Rebuilt, with the shooting still to settle
MMH: 5–11 | 2025–26: 8–10
Chris Kraus guided Stonehill to the program's first NEC Tournament victory last March, but 12 newcomers make this one of the league's hardest teams to project. Will Batchelder, previously at Holy Cross, is an experienced perimeter option; Eli Greenberg joins from Le Moyne and understands NEC defenses. Devon Arlington arrives from Yale, while Anquan Boldin Jr. and Amare Allen give the Skyhawks more versatile guards and wings. Pearse McGuinn and Ewan Steele can help supply frontcourt presence. Stonehill official roster
The obvious advantage is a wider variety of experience than a conventional deep rebuild. The danger is that pieces familiar with their previous teams' systems may take time to find a common identity. Stonehill held opponents to 68.6 points per game last season, but much of that defensive production belonged to players who are gone. Kraus needs reliable shot selection and a new defensive rebounding plan quickly. MMH starts the Skyhawks eighth; a rise into the NEC middle is possible if the older guards shoot efficiently and the forwards protect the paint.
9. Chicago State — Real intrigue, but the most provisional projection
MMH: 3–13 | 2025–26: 5–13
Landon Bussie deserves credit for the way Chicago State finished 2025–26: a program that started NEC play 0–8 won five of its final 11 league games and made champion LIU uncomfortable in the conference quarterfinals. Bussie has assembled an intriguing group of experienced scorers. Kameron Foman averaged 10.0 points and 8.4 rebounds at Benedict College; Will Lovings-Watts 15.1 points at Union; Foday Sheriff 16.2 points and 9.7 rebounds at William Penn. Armari Carraway, Mike Price and Malik Olafioye add Division I guard experience. NEC preseason overview
Our ranking is conservative because those headline figures were earned across Division II, NAIA and Division I environments. Chicago State must establish a balanced shot profile, and last year's 7–25 overall record provides limited proof of a reliable offense. There is also a roster verification issue: an official completed 2026–27 team roster had not been confirmed at this research cutoff, so the provisional rotation draws on Blue Ribbon, the Torvik contributor list supplied by readers and publicly reported transfers. The high school recruiting field is left blank when a rating cannot be verified. That is preferable to presenting speculation as certainty. Blue Ribbon ranks the Cougars sixth; if the imports reproduce their efficiency quickly, our ninth-place forecast will be too low.
Players who could swing the NEC race
Jake Lemelman is MMH's preseason Player of the Year: the most bankable returning high-volume offensive player. Vasean Allette could be the league's most impactful transfer if he leads LIU's new offense without forcing it. Daquan Davis gives LIU an additional high-level creator, while Tennessee Rainwater is the fit that could make Mercyhurst a co-favorite. The biggest sleeper impact may come from Kheni Briggs and Teshaun Steele in New Haven's returning core. Our top ten NEC players.
MMH preseason calls
- Projected regular-season champion: LIU.
- Strongest challenger: Mercyhurst.
- Preseason Player of the Year: Jake Lemelman, Mercyhurst.
- Impact transfer: Vasean Allette, LIU.
- Breakout pick: Kheni Briggs, New Haven.
- Sleeper team: New Haven.
Important postseason distinction: Nine teams play 16 conference games, but NEC Tournament participation and NCAA automatic-qualifier eligibility are not identical for reclassifying programs. The NEC's published policy includes a contingency for Mercyhurst and New Haven reaching the title game. Consult the league announcement for the current rule before using a projected finish to infer an NCAA bid. All forecasts are provisional as of October 20, 2026.