2026–27 Pac-12 Preview: Gonzaga Leads, Oregon State Is the Sleeper
2026-11-03
The rebuilt Pac-12 begins as a nine-team basketball league with a familiar national contender at the top and a much less familiar set of conference matchups. Gonzaga joins Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State and Texas State. The 16-game double round robin gives every team a home and road game against each opponent.
Gonzaga is MMH's favorite because Braden Huff and Massamba Diop give the Bulldogs a formidable frontcourt around which to develop a new perimeter. Utah State has a different strength: Mason Falslev's return gives Ben Jacobson a player who can establish competitive standards while the new system takes shape. San Diego State's young returning pieces offer upside, and Colorado State has enough shooting to punish poor defensive attention.
Oregon State is the sleeper. Justin Joyner's first roster has multiple guards who can create, and the opportunity for its young forwards to grow is substantial. That makes fourth place a reasonable independent projection, above fifth in the media poll and eighth in Blue Ribbon. Texas State's established production should also prevent anyone from treating the former Sun Belt program as a routine newcomer. The conference's long-term reputation will be earned in nonconference games and postseason results; its name alone does not decide how many bids it receives.
Projected standings
| MMH | Team | Projected conference record | Blue Ribbon | Media poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gonzaga | 14–2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Utah State | 12–4 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | San Diego State | 10–6 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Oregon State | 9–7 | 8 | 5 |
| 5 | Colorado State | 9–7 | 4 | 4 |
| 6 | Boise State | 7–9 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Texas State | 5–11 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Washington State | 4–12 | 6 | 8 |
| 9 | Fresno State | 2–14 | 9 | 9 |
MMH's order and records are independent editorial projections, not a reproduction of either comparison source. Records balance across the league; they are not a game-by-game simulation. Poll ranks retain published ties where applicable.
Current-roster correction: Utah State announced Dallin Hall's signing on August 25. Hall is included in the Aggies' key group. San Diego State's Luca Vincini and Luka Skoric are treated as cleared following their October certifications.
Team outlooks
1. Gonzaga
Key players: Xaivian Lee; Isiah Harwell; Davis Fogle; Braden Huff; Massamba Diop.
Mark Few has an interior combination that can establish the terms of a game. Braden Huff offers efficient scoring and a player who understands Gonzaga's movement, while Arizona State transfer Massamba Diop adds size, finishing and shot blocking. Davis Fogle gives the returning perimeter a wing with room to develop into a larger offensive role.
The main uncertainty is the backcourt. Xaivian Lee brings experience from Princeton and Florida, and Isiah Harwell offers a different perimeter skill set after Houston. The Bulldogs need those guards to organize the offense and keep the ball moving without requiring the frontcourt to create every good shot. Chauncey Wiggins gives the forward rotation shooting, while the interior and international additions broaden Few's options. MMH projects Gonzaga first because its frontcourt can support the new guards while they establish their hierarchy. The national ceiling depends on consistent perimeter decisions and a defense that contains the ball well enough to make Diop's rim protection a strength rather than an emergency service.
Defining question: Can the new guards provide enough dependable creation and shooting around the frontcourt?
2. Utah State
Key players: Dallin Hall; Mason Falslev; Solomon Callaghan; Karson Templin; Will Hornseth.
Virginia transfer Dallin Hall gives Ben Jacobson an experienced organizer alongside returning guard Mason Falslev. That matters for a team introducing both a new coach and several new rotation players. Hall can share the handling work, allowing Falslev to attack without having to initiate every possession. Karson Templin supplies returning frontcourt experience, and Will Hornseth brings familiarity with Jacobson from Northern Iowa.
The depth gives Utah State several ways to shape the offense. AJ Bates and Solomon Callaghan add perimeter options, while Connor Turnbull gives the interior another experienced player. The Aggies still need to establish reliable spacing and defensive communication across those combinations. MMH projects second because Falslev and Hall provide a credible foundation for a transition that could otherwise leave too many jobs unsettled. Challenging Gonzaga requires the frontcourt to finish defensive possessions and the newcomers to keep the ball moving when opponents take away the first action.
Defining question: How quickly will the returning core and new additions absorb Jacobson's system?
3. San Diego State
Key players: Elzie Harrington; Chance Gladden; Latrell Davis; Tae Simmons; Luca Vincini.
Brian Dutcher has a younger returning foundation in Elzie Harrington and Tae Simmons. Their development matters because San Diego State needs more players capable of creating a useful possession without relying solely on its defensive reputation. Boston University transfer Chance Gladden adds handling and scoring, while Latrell Davis offers another guard option following a redshirt season.
The frontcourt's international additions require attention to actual clearance rather than summer assumptions. Luca Vincini and Luka Skoric received NCAA certification in October, giving the Aztecs more concrete options. Nick Anderson's Achilles injury changes the perimeter outlook, and he should not be counted as an available scoring solution. Isaiah Sy can help with size and shooting on the wing. MMH lands third because the defense and returning developmental pieces provide a credible foundation, but the offense still has important new relationships to build. A title challenge requires better shot creation and enough interior rebounding to turn the defensive effort into completed stops.
Defining question: Can the new creators and certified frontcourt additions produce enough offense around Harrington and Simmons?
4. Oregon State
Key players: Josiah Lake II; Daniel Freitag; Chris Johnson; DeShawn Gory; Jackson Rasmussen.
Justin Joyner's first Oregon State roster has more than one player who can make something happen with the ball. Josiah Lake II gives the Beavers a returning organizer, and Buffalo transfer Daniel Freitag adds proven scoring and creation. Chris Johnson supplies another experienced guard option. That combination can make the offense less fragile when an opponent disrupts the first action.
The young forwards give the sleeper case its additional upside. DeShawn Gory and Jackson Rasmussen bring production from different settings, while Xavion Staton adds interior potential. Legend Smiley provides another perimeter scoring possibility. The risks are defensive coordination, frontcourt physicality and how quickly a new staff establishes a workable hierarchy. MMH projects fourth because the guards can help the rest of the roster find useful roles rather than ask every newcomer to create independently. That is a meaningful improvement case over Blue Ribbon's eighth-place forecast, even though the media also moved Oregon State into the middle tier. A top-three ceiling depends on the bigs completing defensive possessions.
Defining question: Will the young frontcourt give the experienced creators enough defense and rebounding support?
5. Colorado State
Key players: Justin Menard; Josh Pascarelli; Jase Butler; Kyle Jorgensen; Carey Booth.
Ali Farokhmanesh has several players who can make defensive over-help expensive. Kyle Jorgensen's shooting and frontcourt skill create space, Josh Pascarelli supplies another respected outside option, and Jase Butler has room to take on more responsibility. Marist transfer Justin Menard brings organization and passing to the backcourt. Their fit gives Colorado State a credible offensive identity before considering the deeper rotation.
Carey Booth and Rhashaan Mbemba provide different interior possibilities, while Amondo Miller Jr. introduces a scoring option from Division II. The challenge is maintaining enough physical defense and rebounding to let the shooting matter over a full game. A team can space the floor well and still lose possessions by conceding second chances or failing to contain the ball. MMH puts the Rams fifth, just behind Oregon State in a close middle cluster. They can exceed that forecast if Menard's creation consistently reaches the shooters and the frontcourt holds up against the league's larger interior combinations.
Defining question: Can the shooting-oriented offense be supported by enough defensive rebounding and containment?
6. Boise State
Key players: Damari Wheeler-Thomas; Pearson Carmichael; Dovydas Butka; Spencer Ahrens; Jerquarius Stanback.
Leon Rice has pursued more athleticism and defensive versatility after important departures. Dovydas Butka's return from Campbell gives Boise State a forward who can rebound and create, while Jerquarius Stanback adds shot blocking and activity after his Alabama State season. Pearson Carmichael and Spencer Ahrens provide returning developmental pieces with opportunities to take on larger jobs.
North Dakota State transfer Damari Wheeler-Thomas supplies an experienced perimeter scorer and handler. The question is whether the new combination can create enough efficient half-court offense without giving back the athletic gains through turnovers or poor shot selection. Aginaldo Neto and the other guard options can help distribute those responsibilities. MMH projects sixth because several useful pieces still have to establish a coherent offensive hierarchy. Boise State's upper-half route begins with defense and rebounding, but it cannot end there. The guards must consistently turn the forwards' work into good attempts, especially when opponents keep the Broncos out of transition.
Defining question: Who consistently creates high-quality half-court shots for the reworked, more athletic roster?
7. Texas State
Key players: Kaden Gumbs; Quel'Ron House; KJ Younger; DJ Hall; Paul Djobet.
Texas State's arrival should be evaluated through its personnel rather than dismissed because of its previous conference. DJ Hall gives Terrence Johnson a productive returning forward, and Kaden Gumbs supplies familiar organization at guard. Paul Djobet brings scoring and rebounding from Omaha, while Quel'Ron House and KJ Younger add players who have already carried meaningful college roles.
Those additions create a plausible offense with more than one source of creation. The challenge is handling the new league's interior size and defensive consistency over two games against every opponent. Texas State needs the available centers and forwards to rebound without excessive fouls, and the guards must protect the ball when facing greater length. The Pernell brothers and Caleb Steger provide further perimeter possibilities. MMH starts the Bobcats seventh, while recognizing a route into the middle cluster if Hall continues to develop and the productive transfers fit together efficiently. Their best wins should come from purposeful, balanced possessions rather than trying to win a reputation contest.
Defining question: Can the frontcourt handle the new league's size while the incoming scorers establish efficient roles?
8. Washington State
Key players: Sebastian Akins; Lazerek Harrison; Ronnie Harrison; Tyler Kropp; Ladji Dembele.
David Riley has rebuilt the offense with several players who can attack from different positions. Ronnie Harrison adds scoring and rebounding from East Texas A&M, Sebastian Akins brings high-major experience, and Lazerek Harrison introduces a productive smaller-school creator. Tyler Kropp's size and offensive instincts give the forwards another developmental possibility.
The Cougars need those pieces to become dependable against stronger defensive pressure. Ladji Dembele offers physicality, while the guard and wing rotation includes further options such as Jamari Phillips and Jaylen Harrell. Washington State's concern is not whether one newcomer can have a productive night. It is whether the group can generate efficient shots, rebound and defend consistently over repeated matchups with the same opponents. MMH puts the Cougars eighth because so many responsibilities have changed. Moving into the middle tier requires the new creators to reduce empty possessions and the frontcourt to protect the paint without surrendering too much space to opposing shooters.
Defining question: Can the rebuilt rotation establish consistent shot creation and defensive rebounding?
9. Fresno State
Key players: KJ Perry; Dragos Lungu; Ross Candelino; Quentin Rhymes; Bradey Henige.
Vance Walberg has sought new ways to create offense after losing important production, including DeShawn Gory and Wilson Jacques. KJ Perry and Dragos Lungu give the backcourt different possible approaches, while Lipscomb transfer Ross Candelino adds a shooting threat. Quentin Rhymes supplies a larger perimeter option, and Bradey Henige provides size and rebounding in the interior.
The challenge is building a reliable two-way floor from a group with several uncertain translations. Fresno State needs to control the ball well enough to use its scoring options and then finish defensive possessions against physically stronger opponents. The available reserves and international additions broaden the possibilities, but their roles should be earned through performance rather than assumed from a signing announcement. MMH starts the Bulldogs ninth because both the offensive hierarchy and interior reliability require evidence. Exceeding that projection begins with cleaner guard decisions and enough rebounding support that a good defensive possession is not followed by an easy second chance.
Defining question: Can the new guards create efficient offense while the interior group limits second chances?
Sources and method
Roster background and player evaluations draw on the supplied Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook 2026–27. Team section starting pages: Gonzaga 63; Utah State 323; San Diego State 321; Oregon State 320; Colorado State 318; Boise State 317; Texas State 322; Washington State 325; Fresno State 319. Printed page numbers are used. Current availability changes are incorporated where identified above; the key-player groups are editorial selections, not confirmed starting lineups.
Comparison: Media poll. Schedule format: conference announcement. No Torvik rank is invented where a dated ranking snapshot was not supplied. These are preseason forecasts, updated for identified roster developments through November 3, rather than assessments based on opening-night results.