2026-27 Sun Belt Men's Basketball Preview: Arkansas State Leads a Wide-Open Race
2026-09-26
Troy won the Sun Belt regular-season and tournament championships for the second straight year in 2025-26, but the 2026-27 race looks very different.
Scott Cross is gone. Adam Howard takes over at Troy. Louisiana Tech joins the league as Texas State moves to the Pac-12. And across the conference, continuity is scarce: Blue Ribbon notes that only four primary starters return league-wide.
That creates a race with a clear MMH favorite, a dangerous returning star at Southern Miss and a middle tier that could change dramatically once conference play begins.
MMH is picking Arkansas State to win the Sun Belt.
Every team will play 18 conference games, and the Sun Belt Tournament is scheduled for March 2-8, 2027, at the Pensacola Bay Center.
MMH Projected Order
| Rank | Team | MMH Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkansas State | Best blend of guard creation, depth and recruiting upside |
| 2 | Southern Miss | Isaac Taveras gives the Golden Eagles the league's most reliable returning centerpiece |
| 3 | James Madison | High ceiling if a rebuilt backcourt settles quickly |
| 4 | Troy | Championship culture remains, but the coach and roster transition is real |
| 5 | South Alabama | Peyton Law and an aggressive newcomer group keep the Jaguars in the race |
| 6 | App State | Defensive identity gives the Mountaineers a high floor |
| 7 | Marshall | Noah Otshudi provides continuity; frontcourt translation is the swing factor |
| 8 | Georgia State | New coach, experienced transfer guards and real offensive upside |
| 9 | Louisiana | More continuity than most and MMH's sleeper pick |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | Talented newcomer with a rotation that must adjust quickly to Sun Belt play |
| 11 | Old Dominion | High-variance roster built around a largely new guard group |
| 12 | Coastal Carolina | Eleven newcomers create both upside and a major chemistry test |
| 13 | Georgia Southern | Last March matters, but the new rotation has to create its own identity |
| 14 | ULM | Complete reset under Ryan Cross |
This is an MMH editorial projection, not a Sun Belt coaches poll or an output from the site's locked game model.
Other preseason picks
| Team | MMH | Blue Ribbon |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas State | 1 | 1 |
| Southern Miss | 2 | 4 |
| James Madison | 3 | 6 |
| Troy | 4 | 3 |
| South Alabama | 5 | 2 |
| App State | 6 | 10 |
| Marshall | 7 | 5 |
| Georgia State | 8 | 13 |
| Louisiana | 9 | 7 |
| Louisiana Tech | 10 | 12 |
| Old Dominion | 11 | 9 |
| Coastal Carolina | 12 | 11 |
| Georgia Southern | 13 | 8 |
| ULM | 14 | 14 |
The biggest MMH disagreements are Southern Miss, App State and Georgia State. MMH is more aggressive on Southern Miss because Isaac Taveras gives the Golden Eagles a proven star in a league with very little returning top-end production. App State gets more credit for its defensive floor, while Georgia State's transfer backcourt gives the Panthers more upside than a bottom-two forecast suggests.
EvanMiya's preseason ratings provide another useful lens. Its early national ranks placed Arkansas State No. 136 and James Madison No. 155, while Southern Miss checked in much lower at No. 269. MMH's No. 2 call on Southern Miss is therefore one of the stronger editorial bets in this preview.
1. Arkansas State
The best combination of guard play and upside
Layne Taylor arrives from Murray State to organize the offense. Tameron Ferguson gives Arkansas State another creator and was Blue Ribbon's preseason Newcomer of the Year. Chaz Watson adds shooting, and Jordan Pyke gives the Red Wolves size on the wing.
Projected core: Layne Taylor, Tameron Ferguson, Chaz Watson, Jordan Pyke.
Why they can win it: Multiple creators, positional size and the deepest combination of proven skill and newcomer upside in the league.
Biggest question: How quickly can a lineup with so many new pieces become a connected defensive team?
MMH view: The Red Wolves have the fewest obvious weaknesses in the conference and are the most convincing pick at No. 1.
2. Southern Miss
The league's best returning star changes the math
Isaac Taveras averaged 15.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists last season. Blue Ribbon named him its preseason Sun Belt Player of the Year.
Cameron Wallace and Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt add experience. Brandon Weston's return from a medical redshirt could give Southern Miss another important perimeter option.
Projected core: Isaac Taveras, Cameron Wallace, Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt, Brandon Weston.
Why they can win it: Taveras gives Southern Miss a dependable late-clock option and a player who can anchor both ends of a possession.
Biggest question: Is there enough secondary creation to prevent defenses from loading up on Taveras?
MMH view: Blue Ribbon has Southern Miss fourth. MMH is buying the value of having the league's clearest returning star and moves the Golden Eagles to No. 2.
3. James Madison
One of the league's highest ceilings
Cavan Reilly gives JMU a high-upside lead guard if he is fully healthy after missing almost all of last season at Delaware. Adrian Myers brings production from San Jose State, while Gage Lattimore adds another scoring option.
Garrett Sundra and Jacob Hogarth give the Dukes size and balance around the perimeter group.
Projected core: Cavan Reilly, Adrian Myers, Gage Lattimore, Garrett Sundra, Jacob Hogarth.
Why they can win it: There are several legitimate scoring options and enough size to build flexible lineups.
Biggest question: Who becomes the primary ballhandler when possessions tighten late?
MMH view: JMU has top-two talent but also more role uncertainty than Arkansas State or Southern Miss.
4. Troy
The champion is still dangerous
Troy won the 2026 Sun Belt Tournament, beating Georgia Southern 77-61 in the championship game. The program deserves respect.
Adam Howard replaces Scott Cross, and the roster must replace much of the frontcourt production that defined the title run. Jacoi Hutchinson and Robert Davis Jr. arrive to strengthen the perimeter, while Kerrington Kiel and Evan Griffin give Troy some continuity.
Projected core: Jacoi Hutchinson, Robert Davis Jr., Kerrington Kiel, Evan Griffin.
Why they can win it: The program knows how to defend, handle pressure and win in March.
Biggest question: Can the new frontcourt replace the rebounding and physicality that powered last year's championship team?
MMH view: Troy remains a contender, but the coaching and roster transition makes No. 4 more realistic than simply projecting another title.
5. South Alabama
The upside is higher than the returning numbers suggest
Peyton Law averaged 12.8 points and 6.0 rebounds in 10 games last season. A healthy year from him gives South Alabama a proven frontcourt piece.
Jalen Langsy arrives after prolific NAIA scoring, and Richie Riley has assembled another aggressive newcomer class.
Blue Ribbon ranks South Alabama second and rates the Jaguars among the league's best backcourts and frontcourts.
Projected core: Peyton Law, Jalen Langsy and a deep newcomer group.
Why they can win it: There is enough size and scoring upside to create a balanced team on both ends.
Biggest question: Which guard becomes the reliable possession-by-possession creator?
MMH view: South Alabama has a championship ceiling, but the guard hierarchy must become clear before MMH moves the Jaguars into the top four.
6. App State
Defense keeps the floor high
App State has built its program around defense, rebounding and physicality.
Eren Banks returns. Ben Kopetzki adds scoring and playmaking. Hermann Koffi brings Division I production from Stonehill, while Da'Mori Lytch arrives after earning NJCAA Division I first-team All-America honors.
Projected core: Eren Banks, Ben Kopetzki, Hermann Koffi, Da'Mori Lytch.
Why they can beat the projection: The Mountaineers' defensive identity travels, and their newcomer group has more offensive skill than the No. 10 Blue Ribbon forecast suggests.
Biggest question: Can the new frontcourt maintain App State's defensive standard?
MMH view: This is one of MMH's bigger disagreements with Blue Ribbon. App State looks more like a first-division team than a bottom-five one.
7. Marshall
A known creator gives the Herd a starting point
Noah Otshudi returns after averaging 14.5 points and 3.5 assists in the audited MMH rotation data.
Boubacar Djigo was a dominant rebounder at Division II Concord, while Khaman Maker gives Marshall more size inside.
Projected core: Noah Otshudi, Boubacar Djigo, Khaman Maker.
Why they can move up: Otshudi can organize the offense, and the frontcourt has enough size to become a real strength.
Biggest question: How much of the new interior production translates to Division I?
MMH view: If Djigo's rebounding travels, seventh will look conservative.
8. Georgia State
A transfer backcourt worth watching
New coach Jon Cremins inherits an intriguing collection of guards.
Jacob Meyer averaged 12.4 points at UAB. Jaden Jackson averaged 12.2 at South Dakota State. Eric Parnell and David Thomas add more experience.
Projected core: Jacob Meyer, Jaden Jackson, Eric Parnell, David Thomas.
Why they can beat the projection: Georgia State may have more proven perimeter scoring than several teams ranked above it.
Biggest question: Can the Panthers defend and rebound well enough to turn that offense into wins?
MMH view: Blue Ribbon has Georgia State 13th. MMH sees too much guard talent to start the Panthers that low.
9. Louisiana
MMH's Sun Belt sleeper
Louisiana is not the flashiest roster in the league. It may be one of the most coherent.
De'Vion Lavergne, Todd Jones Jr., Jeremiah Evans and Jamyron Keller return, giving the Cajuns more familiar pieces than most Sun Belt teams. Mekhi Cooper and Trent Middleton Jr. add help around them.
Keller's 17.0 points-per-game figure came from only two appearances last season, so MMH is not treating that tiny sample as a forecast. The sleeper case is about continuity, role clarity and the possibility of better health.
Projected core: De'Vion Lavergne, Todd Jones Jr., Jeremiah Evans, Jamyron Keller, Mekhi Cooper, Trent Middleton Jr.
Why they can surprise: In a league dominated by roster turnover, Louisiana already has players who know each other and know the program.
Biggest question: Can the returning guards produce a healthier, more efficient offense?
MMH view: Ninth is the projection. The upside is several spots higher, which is why Louisiana is MMH's sleeper.
10. Louisiana Tech
The newcomer has enough talent to be dangerous
Louisiana Tech enters its first Sun Belt season with a heavily reshaped rotation.
Kyran Tilley and Deven Bates should handle major offensive responsibility, but much of the supporting cast is moving up from Division II or junior-college competition.
Projected core: Kyran Tilley, Deven Bates and a junior-college-heavy supporting cast.
Why they can move up: The backcourt talent is good enough to win league games immediately.
Biggest question: How quickly does the new rotation adjust to an 18-game Sun Belt schedule?
MMH view: The range is wide. A fast adjustment could put Louisiana Tech comfortably in the upper half.
11. Old Dominion
One of the league's highest-variance rosters
Mike Jones has added another large transfer group.
Adante' Holiman gives ODU a former All-Sun Belt guard, although he did not appear at Arizona State last season. Khoi Thurmon and Jotham Nweke add more pieces to a rotation with very little recent Division I production together.
Projected core: Adante' Holiman, Khoi Thurmon, Jotham Nweke.
Why they can beat the projection: Holiman has already shown he can perform at a high level in this league.
Biggest question: How quickly does a largely new guard group become dependable?
MMH view: ODU could finish well above 11th, but there are too many unknowns to project it aggressively in October.
12. Coastal Carolina
Eleven newcomers make this a chemistry bet
Coastal Carolina returns DaJohn Craig, Derrick Green and Tristan Thompson, but the rotation around them has been rebuilt.
Ashton Hardaway and Darius Washington III headline a group of 11 newcomers.
Projected core: DaJohn Craig, Derrick Green, Tristan Thompson, Ashton Hardaway, Darius Washington III.
Why they can move up: There are enough options for a productive rotation to emerge.
Biggest question: How long does it take to establish clear guard roles and a dependable rebounding identity?
MMH view: Coastal's ceiling is higher than 12th, but the roster turnover creates one of the league's largest early-season chemistry tests.
13. Georgia Southern
March raised the expectations
Georgia Southern went from the No. 10 seed to the 2026 Sun Belt championship game.
Dallas Gardner returns after missing last season. Rashaad Williams and Josh Dixon are among the incoming guards.
Projected core: Dallas Gardner, Rashaad Williams, Josh Dixon.
Why they can beat the projection: The program showed last March that it can become dangerous when the pieces click.
Biggest question: Where does consistent half-court creation come from over an 18-game league schedule?
MMH view: The championship-game run raises the ceiling, but the new rotation still has to establish its own identity.
14. ULM
A complete reset
Ryan Cross takes over a roster with 14 newcomers and no returning scholarship players.
Quaran McPherson and Dayjaun Anderson bring a UAB connection, and the junior-college additions give Cross multiple ways to build the rotation.
Projected core: Quaran McPherson, Dayjaun Anderson and a nearly complete newcomer group.
Why they can improve: A new staff and new roster can change a program faster than a preseason ranking suggests.
Biggest question: Can the Warhawks establish a defensive identity quickly enough to stay competitive?
MMH view: The reset is too large to project anything other than 14th, but ULM should be judged by how much progress it makes by February.
MMH Top 10 Players
| Rank | Player | Team | Why he matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaac Taveras | Southern Miss | 15.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.3 APG and Blue Ribbon's preseason Player of the Year |
| 2 | Tameron Ferguson | Arkansas State | High-level creator and Blue Ribbon's preseason Newcomer of the Year |
| 3 | Peyton Law | South Alabama | Proven inside-out scorer and rebounder when healthy |
| 4 | Noah Otshudi | Marshall | 14.5 PPG and 3.5 APG in the audited MMH rotation data |
| 5 | Jamyron Keller | Louisiana | High-upside returning guard whose health could change Louisiana's ceiling |
| 6 | Adante' Holiman | Old Dominion | Former All-Sun Belt guard with a chance to re-establish himself |
| 7 | Jacob Meyer | Georgia State | Proven Division I scorer joining a transfer-heavy backcourt |
| 8 | Layne Taylor | Arkansas State | Lead guard expected to organize MMH's projected champion |
| 9 | Cavan Reilly | James Madison | High-ceiling creator if healthy |
| 10 | Jacoi Hutchinson | Troy | Important new perimeter piece for the defending champion |
Impact Newcomers
Tameron Ferguson - Arkansas State
A second creator for the league favorite and Blue Ribbon's preseason Newcomer of the Year.
Layne Taylor - Arkansas State
The Murray State transfer should have the ball in his hands immediately and gives the Red Wolves an experienced organizer.
Cavan Reilly - James Madison
A healthy Reilly would give JMU another high-level creator and significantly raise the Dukes' ceiling.
Jacob Meyer - Georgia State
A proven scorer from UAB stepping into a backcourt with enough experience to surprise people.
Ben Kopetzki - App State
Adds scoring and playmaking to a program that already knows how to defend.
Adante' Holiman - Old Dominion
A former All-Sun Belt guard returning to the league with a chance to become ODU's offensive centerpiece.
Boubacar Djigo - Marshall
A dominant Division II rebounder whose translation to the Sun Belt could determine Marshall's ceiling.
MMH Sleeper: Louisiana
Blue Ribbon has Louisiana seventh. MMH has the Cajuns ninth.
That does not sound like a sleeper pick until the roster context is considered.
Louisiana returns more familiar pieces than most of the conference: De'Vion Lavergne, Todd Jones Jr., Jeremiah Evans and Jamyron Keller. In a league where only a handful of primary starters return, continuity itself has value.
The Cajuns still need better health and more efficient guard play. But if those two things improve, Louisiana has a realistic path from the bottom half of the preseason projection into the top five.
Best Backcourts
- Arkansas State - Layne Taylor and Tameron Ferguson give the Red Wolves multiple creators with size and experience.
- Southern Miss - Isaac Taveras is the league's best returning star, with enough experience around him to keep defenses honest.
- Georgia State - Jacob Meyer, Jaden Jackson, Eric Parnell and David Thomas give the Panthers one of the deepest groups of experienced guards.
- Louisiana - Continuity gives the Cajuns a head start on most of the league.
- James Madison - The ceiling is high if Cavan Reilly, Adrian Myers and Gage Lattimore settle into clean roles.
Best Frontcourts
- Arkansas State - The Red Wolves have enough size and versatility around the perimeter talent to avoid becoming one-dimensional.
- South Alabama - Peyton Law gives the Jaguars a proven foundation, and Blue Ribbon also rates this group among the league's best.
- Troy - The frontcourt is changing, but the program's physical identity keeps the Trojans in this conversation.
- App State - The Mountaineers have enough size and athleticism to rebuild around their defensive identity.
- Marshall - Boubacar Djigo and Khaman Maker give the Herd substantial rebounding and size upside.
MMH Preseason Awards
- Projected Champion: Arkansas State
- Player of the Year: Isaac Taveras, Southern Miss
- Newcomer of the Year: Tameron Ferguson, Arkansas State
- Sleeper: Louisiana
- Most Dangerous Challenger: Southern Miss
- Best Backcourt: Arkansas State
- Best Frontcourt: Arkansas State
What Will Decide the Race?
Guard continuity versus transfer upside. Southern Miss has a returning centerpiece in Taveras, while Arkansas State and James Madison are betting on new combinations. The team that gets good shots without long stretches of turnovers will create separation.
Troy's transition. Howard inherits a championship program, not last season's full championship lineup. How quickly the new backcourt and frontcourt mesh will say more than the banner about Troy's 2026-27 ceiling.
Who survives the middle. South Alabama, App State, Marshall, Georgia State, Louisiana and Louisiana Tech all have believable first-division cases. A few close conference games could completely reorder that group.
March Outlook
The Sun Belt looks built for another chaotic tournament.
Arkansas State has the strongest overall roster on paper. Southern Miss has the league's best returning star. James Madison has one of the highest ceilings. Troy has championship DNA even with a major transition underway.
Then comes a middle tier deep enough that a team projected ninth could plausibly finish fifth.
That is why Louisiana is MMH's sleeper and why the Sun Belt may be one of the hardest mid-major leagues to sort before games begin.
The Sun Belt Tournament is scheduled for March 2-8 at the Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.
Methodology: This editorial outlook uses MMH's audited 2026-27 projected-rotation work, current school roster information, conference releases and Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook. Projected roles are estimates, previous-season statistics come from different levels of competition, and availability may change. This is not an official preseason poll or an output from MMH Model V1.