2026–27 Sun Belt Men's Basketball Preview: A New Challenger for Troy

2026-09-26

Troy won the Sun Belt regular-season and tournament championships for the second straight year in 2025–26. The Trojans still belong in the title conversation, but this is a different team: Scott Cross has left, Adam Howard is the new head coach, and the roster has been rebuilt around a smaller returning core. The conference race should be more open than the words “defending champion” suggest.

The league has a new look, too. Louisiana Tech joins the 14-team Sun Belt as Texas State moves to the Pac-12. Every team plays 18 conference games, and the tournament is scheduled for March 2–8, 2027, in Pensacola. Sun Belt schedule and championship details · Louisiana Tech membership announcement · Texas State conference move

MMH projected order

1. Arkansas State — The strongest blend of proven guard play and upside from a deep recruiting class.
2. Southern Miss — Isaac Taveras gives the Golden Eagles a reliable centerpiece in a league full of new combinations.
3. James Madison — A high-ceiling group if its new guards settle into clear roles.
4. Troy — The champion has enough pieces to contend, with a real transition to manage.
5. South Alabama — Peyton Law and an ambitious group of newcomers keep the Jaguars in the race.
6. App State — A credible contender if the new frontcourt sustains its defensive standard.
7. Marshall — Noah Otshudi offers continuity; the frontcourt's Division I translation is the swing factor.
8. Georgia State — An intriguing transfer backcourt under a new coach.
9. Louisiana — More returning pieces than most, but it needs a healthier, more dependable offense.
10. Louisiana Tech — The newcomer can climb if its junior-college-heavy rotation adjusts quickly.
11. Old Dominion — A largely new guard group makes the ceiling difficult to pin down.
12. Coastal Carolina — Eleven newcomers give the Chanticleers options and a major chemistry test.
13. Georgia Southern — Last March's run is real history, but this roster has to establish its own identity.
14. ULM — Ryan Cross begins with an almost complete rebuild.

This is an MMH editorial projection as of September 26, not a Sun Belt coaches poll or a 2026–27 output from the site's power-rating model. The middle of this order is especially tight. Projected rotation roles are estimates, and past-season numbers cited below are not forecasts for 2026–27.

An external rating check

EvanMiya's 2026–27 preseason team ratings offer a useful second lens. Its national ranks put Arkansas State at No. 136, James Madison at No. 155 and Southern Miss at No. 269. MMH's second-place call on Southern Miss is therefore the clearest bet in this preview against that external assessment: it places more weight on Isaac Taveras as a returning anchor and on how the new pieces might fit around him. These are EvanMiya's national team-strength ratings, not projected Sun Belt standings or MMH model results. EvanMiya team ratings — select 2026–27 and Sun Belt

The title tier

1. Arkansas State

Layne Taylor arrives from Murray State after a season in which he supplied steady playmaking and took care of the ball. Tameron Ferguson adds another creator, while Chaz Watson brings shooting and Jordan Pyke gives the Red Wolves size on the wing. The question is how quickly a lineup with so many newcomers becomes a connected defense. If Taylor organizes the offense and the new frontcourt holds up, Arkansas State has the most convincing path to first place. A-State roster · Taylor bio

2. Southern Miss

Isaac Taveras is the clearest returning star in this race. He averaged 15.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.3 assists last season, giving Southern Miss a dependable starting point on both ends of a possession. Cameron Wallace and Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt add experience, while Brandon Weston's return from a medical redshirt could change the perimeter picture. The Golden Eagles need enough creation around Taveras to avoid asking him to solve every late-clock trip. Their continuity at the top is a persuasive edge. Southern Miss roster · 2025–26 team statistics

3. James Madison

JMU has several ways to score, but the ballhandling hierarchy is still a projection. Cavan Reilly missed almost all of last season at Delaware; Adrian Myers arrives after producing at San José State, and Gage Lattimore gives the Dukes another scoring option. Garrett Sundra and Jacob Hogarth should help balance the perimeter group. If Reilly is healthy and the pieces fit, this team can finish above third. The downside is a long adjustment period for a rotation built heavily through the portal. JMU roster · Reilly signing

4. Troy

The Trojans earned this respect on the court: they won the 2026 league tournament, beating Georgia Southern 77–61 in the final. But Adam Howard replaces Scott Cross, and the title team's leading frontcourt production does not simply carry over. Jacoi Hutchinson and Robert Davis Jr. are important incoming guards; Kerrington Kiel and Evan Griffin provide some familiarity. Troy's route back to the top depends on how quickly those guards drive an efficient offense and how the new frontcourt replaces the rebounding that defined last March's title run. Championship recap · Troy roster

The crowded middle

5. South Alabama

Peyton Law averaged 12.8 points and 6.0 rebounds in 10 games last season. A full, healthy season from him would give South Alabama an established interior-forward option after the departure of Sun Belt Player of the Year Chaze Harris. Jalen Langsy arrives after prolific NAIA scoring, and the Jaguars have several other newcomers competing for major minutes. Their ability to create efficient guard offense against Sun Belt defenses will determine whether this is a title threat or a tournament dark horse. South Alabama roster · 2025–26 statistics

6. App State

Eren Banks returns to a program that finished among last season's top four tournament seeds. Ben Kopetzki offers substantial scoring and playmaking after a productive season at Concordia-St. Paul, but the loss of Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Luke Wilson leaves an important frontcourt question. App State's defensive baseline can still make every league game uncomfortable. To reach the top two, it needs its new guards to create enough offense without sacrificing the stops and rebounding that carried the Mountaineers. App State roster · 2025–26 conference awards

7. Marshall

Noah Otshudi returns after averaging 14.5 points and 3.5 assists in the audited rotation data, giving Marshall a known offensive organizer. Boubacar Djigo was a force on the glass at Division II Concord, and Khaman Maker adds size. The Thundering Herd were the No. 2 seed in last season's league tournament, but the new interior group will be tested immediately. If Djigo's rebounding travels up a level, seventh may be too low. Marshall roster · 2026 tournament results

8. Georgia State

New coach Jon Cremins has a backcourt worth watching. Jacob Meyer averaged 12.4 points at UAB, and Jaden Jackson averaged 12.2 at South Dakota State. Eric Parnell and David Thomas add more experience. Getting those guards to share the ball effectively is one job; building a reliable defensive and rebounding identity around them is the other. Georgia State has the scoring to move several places up this list if both come together. Georgia State roster · Meyer bio · New coaches

9. Louisiana

Louisiana brings back De'Vion Lavergne, Todd Jones Jr., Jeremiah Evans and Jamyron Keller, more familiar pieces than several teams above it. Keller's 17.0 points per game in the supplied rotation file came from only two appearances last season, so that average is a poor basis for a projection. His health, Lavergne's lead-guard consistency and the contributions of incoming Mekhi Cooper and Trent Middleton Jr. will shape the Cajuns' ceiling. The returners give Louisiana a chance to outperform ninth. Louisiana returners · 2026–27 roster

10. Louisiana Tech

The Bulldogs enter their first Sun Belt season with a significantly reshaped lineup. Kyran Tilley and Deven Bates should have the ball often, but much of the rotation is moving from Division II or junior-college competition. The talent is interesting; the adjustment to an 18-game Sun Belt schedule is hard to price before seeing it. A fast backcourt adaptation could put Louisiana Tech firmly in the upper half. Louisiana Tech roster · Sun Belt membership announcement

Teams with room to surprise

11. Old Dominion

Mike Jones has added another large transfer group, including former All-Sun Belt guard Adante' Holiman, Khoi Thurmon and Jotham Nweke. Holiman did not appear at Arizona State last season, and the projected guards have little recent Division I production together. That makes this one of the most uncertain teams in the league. If Holiman rediscovers his earlier form and the frontcourt protects the paint, the Monarchs can make this ranking look conservative. ODU roster · Holiman signing

12. Coastal Carolina

Coastal has 11 newcomers alongside returners DaJohn Craig, Derrick Green and Tristan Thompson. Ashton Hardaway, Darius Washington III and other transfers provide options, but the team must replace the production of 2025–26 Newcomer of the Year Joshua Beadle. The Chants earned the No. 3 tournament seed last season; this rank reflects the degree of roster turnover, not a dismissal of that result. Clear guard roles and dependable rebounding would move them up quickly. Coastal newcomer release · 2025–26 conference awards

13. Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern's run from the No. 10 seed to the 2026 championship game showed how dangerous the Eagles can be in a knockout setting. This version has different personnel. Dallas Gardner returns after missing last season, while Rashaad Williams and Josh Dixon are among the incoming guards. The main question is whether those pieces can create a consistent half-court offense over 18 league games. March's result raises the standard, but it cannot fill the gaps in a new rotation by itself. Georgia Southern roster · 2026 championship recap

14. ULM

Ryan Cross was hired in March and assembled 14 newcomers, with no returning scholarship players. Quaran McPherson and Dayjaun Anderson bring a UAB connection, while the junior-college additions give Cross multiple ways to build the rotation. The wholesale reset is why ULM starts at the bottom of this projection, though a new staff can improve faster than a preseason ranking anticipates. Early defensive cohesion will be the first sign of progress. ULM recruiting class · Cross hiring

What will decide the race?

Guard continuity versus transfer upside. Southern Miss has a returning centerpiece in Taveras, while Arkansas State and JMU are betting on new combinations. The team that gets good shots without long stretches of turnovers will gain separation in a compact top tier.

Troy's transition. Howard inherits a championship program, not last season's full championship lineup. How soon Hutchinson, Davis and the returning forwards mesh will say more than the banner about the Trojans' 2026–27 ceiling.

Who survives the middle. South Alabama, App State, Marshall, Georgia State and Louisiana each have a believable upper-division case. A few close conference games can reorder that entire group before the Pensacola bracket is set.

Methodology: This editorial outlook uses the audited MMH 2026–27 projected rotation file supplied for the site, checked against conference releases and current school rosters as of September 26, 2026. The rotations are estimates, transfers' previous-season statistics come from different competitive levels, and availability may change. This is not an official preseason poll or a prediction of final win totals.