FROM MMH

Saint Louis Has the Stage—and a Real Chance Against Missouri

With Robbie Avila available, the Billikens give mid-major basketball a compelling Friday night matchup against the SEC.

Some November games offer a chance to build confidence. Others offer a chance to change how a team is viewed.

For Saint Louis, Friday night brings the second kind.

The Billikens face Missouri at Enterprise Center in St. Louis, renewing a series that has been dormant since 2001. Tipoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU. An Atlantic 10 contender gets a national television window against an SEC opponent, with an opportunity to put a meaningful nonconference win on its résumé.

For anyone following mid-major basketball, this deserves a place near the top of tonight’s viewing list.

Saint Louis enters with enough returning production, offensive skill, and recent success to make this a competitive matchup. Missouri should expect a team capable of dictating stretches of the game.

A mid-major with something to build on

The Billikens finished 29–6 last season, shared the Atlantic 10 regular-season championship, and defeated Georgia 102–77 in the NCAA Tournament before falling to eventual national champion Michigan. They return five players who averaged at least 9.1 points: Trey Green, Amari McCottry, Kellen Thames, Ishan Sharma, and Quentin Jones.

That continuity matters in an early-season game. Saint Louis has several players who already understand their responsibilities and have experienced winning together. When possessions become difficult, that familiarity can help an offense keep moving.

Monday’s 92–67 victory over Lehigh offered an encouraging start. Six Billikens reached double figures, and Saint Louis shot 60 percent from the field. Thames and Jones each scored 15. The production came from throughout the rotation, giving Missouri several threats to account for.

The challenge now is carrying that balance into a much more demanding matchup.

Larry Nerd is available—but expectations need context

Robbie Avila’s return adds another reason to watch.

The recognizable, goggle-wearing big man received a preliminary injunction Thursday allowing him to return for a fifth college season. Schertz subsequently confirmed that Avila would dress and be available against Missouri. Last season, Avila averaged 12.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists while shooting 41 percent from three-point range.

His combination of passing and shooting gives Saint Louis another way to organize its offense. A center who can threaten from outside forces a defender to make uncomfortable decisions: follow him away from the basket, or leave a capable shooter with space. When the defense responds, Avila has the vision to find a teammate.

Those qualities could be valuable even in a limited appearance.

Availability, however, does not establish how much he will play. Schertz has cautioned that Avila needs time to recover his conditioning and timing after limited preparation with the team. Saint Louis cannot reasonably expect him to step immediately into a full workload.

The Billikens already showed they could generate offense without him in the opener. Tonight, whatever effective minutes he provides would add another option.

How Saint Louis can win

The Billikens’ best route is to make Missouri defend through an entire possession.

Quick, contested attempts would give the Tigers opportunities to rebound and attack before Saint Louis gets organized. Patient ball movement, purposeful cuts, and clean decisions can instead force Missouri to defend multiple actions.

Thames is especially interesting. He made all six of his field-goal attempts against Lehigh, adding six rebounds and three steals in 20 minutes. His ability to attack downhill gives Saint Louis a way to create pressure without relying entirely on outside shooting.

The distinction will be choosing when to run. Saint Louis should take open-floor opportunities when they are there, while avoiding the rushed possessions that can turn a competitive game into a succession of Missouri scoring runs.

Missouri brings plenty of danger. The Tigers opened with a 111–50 victory over Cleveland State, and freshman Jason Crowe Jr. scored 23 points in his collegiate debut. All five starters reached double figures. Saint Louis will need to contain the ball and finish defensive possessions to prevent that scoring depth from taking over.

Why this game matters beyond one night

For an Atlantic 10 contender, November opportunities against SEC opponents carry weight. A win gives Saint Louis something tangible to carry into the conference season and strengthens the case it hopes to make when postseason decisions arrive.

There is value in the setting, too. These programs are meeting on a neutral floor in St. Louis, giving the matchup a local identity and supporters of both teams a reason to invest in it. More games like this would be welcome on the college basketball calendar.

Saint Louis has earned the opportunity through its recent results. Friday offers a chance to show that last season’s success can carry forward.

The pick

Missouri’s opening performance commands respect, and Avila’s uncertain workload makes it difficult to know exactly how Saint Louis will use its rotation.

Still, the Billikens have enough experienced scoring options to stay connected, enough offensive versatility to create problems, and a setting that should help sustain their energy.

Saint Louis is my choice for tonight’s most likely mid-major upset of a major-conference opponent.

Prediction: Saint Louis 81, Missouri 79.