THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayMarch 1, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Villanova at St. John's • FINAL24-9 • 30-6Final Score: Villanova 57-89 St. John's

St. John's 84.9%Villanova 15.1%

70-82151.3St. John's -11.8

Virginia Tech at North Carolina • FINAL19-13 • 24-9Final Score: Virginia Tech 82-89 North Carolina

North Carolina 79.3%Virginia Tech 20.7%

73-82155.0North Carolina -9.3

Arkansas at Florida • FINAL28-9 • 27-8Final Score: Arkansas 77-111 Florida

Florida 84.1%Arkansas 15.9%

79-91170.5Florida -11.5

Ole Miss at Auburn • FINAL15-20 • 21-16Final Score: Ole Miss 85-79 Auburn

Auburn 85.6%Ole Miss 14.4%

75-86160.6Auburn -11.3

Gonzaga at Saint Mary's • FINAL31-4 • 27-6Final Score: Gonzaga 59-70 Saint Mary's

Gonzaga 53.1%Saint Mary's 46.9%

74-73147.3Gonzaga -0.7

Purdue at Ohio State • FINAL30-9 • 21-13Final Score: Purdue 74-82 Ohio State

Purdue 61.3%Ohio State 38.7%

78-76154.6Purdue -1.7

Michigan State at Indiana • FINAL27-8 • 18-14Final Score: Michigan State 77-64 Indiana

Michigan State 68.6%Indiana 31.4%

77-73150.4Michigan State -3.6

Boise State at Fresno State • FINAL20-12 • 13-19Final Score: Boise State 69-53 Fresno State

Boise State 70.5%Fresno State 29.5%

77-73150.3Boise State -3.8

Wright State at Northern Kentucky • FINAL23-12 • 20-14Final Score: Wright State 92-91 Northern Kentucky

Northern Kentucky 53.8%Wright State 46.2%

80-82161.2Northern Kentucky -2.2

Stony Brook at Hofstra • FINAL17-15 • 24-11Final Score: Stony Brook 58-67 Hofstra

Hofstra 87.3%Stony Brook 12.7%

65-78142.7Hofstra -12.8

Hawai'i at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL24-9 • 18-16Final Score: Hawai'i 87-85 Cal State Fullerton

Hawai'i 51.2%Cal State Fullerton 48.8%

81-80161.2Hawai'i -1.1

Washington State at Pepperdine • FINAL12-20 • 9-23Final Score: Washington State 79-88 Pepperdine

Washington State 65.9%Pepperdine 34.1%

79-76155.4Washington State -3.3

Oregon State at Santa Clara • FINAL17-16 • 26-9Final Score: Oregon State 72-93 Santa Clara

Santa Clara 91.2%Oregon State 8.8%

68-85152.5Santa Clara -16.7

Duquesne at Saint Louis • FINAL18-15 • 29-6Final Score: Duquesne 76-91 Saint Louis

Saint Louis 90.8%Duquesne 9.2%

71-88159.0Saint Louis -16.7

Baylor at UCF • FINAL16-17 • 21-12Final Score: Baylor 87-86 UCF

UCF 57.7%Baylor 42.3%

80-83162.4UCF -2.6

Cal State Northridge at UC Riverside • FINAL20-14 • 10-22Final Score: Cal State Northridge 84-95 UC Riverside

Cal State Northridge 61.6%UC Riverside 38.4%

81-79159.5Cal State Northridge -2.4

Oral Roberts at Kansas City • FINAL10-23 • 4-27Final Score: Oral Roberts 94-70 Kansas City

Oral Roberts 78.3%Kansas City 21.7%

81-74154.6Oral Roberts -7.1

Utah Tech at Southern Utah • FINAL19-15 • 10-22Final Score: Utah Tech 67-81 Southern Utah

Utah Tech 55.9%Southern Utah 44.1%

79-78156.7Utah Tech -1.0

Seattle U at Loyola Marymount • FINAL21-14 • 15-17Final Score: Seattle U 71-66 Loyola Marymount

Loyola Marymount 58.5%Seattle U 41.5%

70-73143.1Loyola Marymount -2.6

Omaha at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL16-17 • 24-10Final Score: Omaha 53-68 St. Thomas-Minnesota

St. Thomas-Minnesota 90.1%Omaha 9.9%

70-85155.6St. Thomas-Minnesota -15.0

Tarleton State at California Baptist • FINAL14-18 • 25-9Final Score: Tarleton State 67-82 California Baptist

California Baptist 88.4%Tarleton State 11.6%

66-79144.6California Baptist -12.7

Long Beach State at Cal State Bakersfield • FINAL10-22 • 8-24Final Score: Long Beach State 88-87 Cal State Bakersfield

Long Beach State 61.8%Cal State Bakersfield 38.2%

80-77157.1Long Beach State -2.5

Nevada at UNLV • FINAL24-13 • 18-16Final Score: Nevada 83-85 UNLV

Nevada 56.7%UNLV 43.3%

78-77155.2Nevada -0.7

Grand Canyon at Utah State • FINAL20-12 • 29-7Final Score: Grand Canyon 69-74 Utah State

Utah State 76.3%Grand Canyon 23.7%

71-79150.3Utah State -8.4

UC Santa Barbara at UC Irvine • FINAL18-14 • 23-12Final Score: UC Santa Barbara 60-64 UC Irvine

UC Irvine 78.4%UC Santa Barbara 21.6%

70-80149.8UC Irvine -9.3

Cal Poly at UC San Diego • FINAL14-19 • 23-11Final Score: Cal Poly 64-80 UC San Diego

UC San Diego 78.2%Cal Poly 21.8%

75-85160.0UC San Diego -10.1

Northern Iowa at Drake • FINAL23-13 • 14-20Final Score: Northern Iowa 75-53 Drake

Northern Iowa 75.4%Drake 24.6%

73-67140.1Northern Iowa -5.8

UIC at Indiana State • FINAL19-16 • 11-21Final Score: UIC 63-79 Indiana State

UIC 70.3%Indiana State 29.7%

76-72148.4UIC -4.0

Murray State at Bradley • FINAL20-13 • 21-13Final Score: Murray State 78-87 Bradley

Bradley 64.5%Murray State 35.5%

78-83160.8Bradley -4.6

Belmont at Illinois State • FINAL26-6 • 23-13Final Score: Belmont 74-81 Illinois State

Belmont 58.1%Illinois State 41.9%

76-76152.1Belmont -0.8

La Salle at Davidson • FINAL9-23 • 20-14Final Score: La Salle 64-71 Davidson

Davidson 86.0%La Salle 14.0%

64-76140.2Davidson -12.8

Tulane at South Florida • FINAL18-15 • 25-9Final Score: Tulane 62-90 South Florida

South Florida 96.2%Tulane 3.8%

69-90158.7South Florida -21.6

North Texas at UAB • FINAL19-14 • 20-12Final Score: North Texas 62-58 UAB

UAB 73.7%North Texas 26.3%

70-77146.5UAB -7.2

Rutgers at Maryland • FINAL13-20 • 12-20Final Score: Rutgers 69-65 Maryland

Maryland 57.7%Rutgers 42.3%

72-75146.6Maryland -3.2

Quinnipiac at Canisius • FINAL19-13 • 10-21Final Score: Quinnipiac 67-63 Canisius

Quinnipiac 80.2%Canisius 19.8%

74-66139.9Quinnipiac -7.8

Rice at Temple • FINAL13-18 • 16-16Final Score: Rice 80-74 Temple

Temple 76.0%Rice 24.0%

70-78147.8Temple -8.0

Memphis at East Carolina • FINAL13-19 • 11-20Final Score: Memphis 68-84 East Carolina

East Carolina 53.0%Memphis 47.0%

76-77152.5East Carolina -0.6

Charlotte at Florida Atlantic • FINAL17-17 • 18-15Final Score: Charlotte 76-77 Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic 68.3%Charlotte 31.7%

73-80152.7Florida Atlantic -6.8

Rider at Siena • FINAL4-25 • 23-12Final Score: Rider 61-76 Siena

Siena 96.3%Rider 3.7%

58-79136.8Siena -21.8

Mount St. Mary's at Fairfield • FINAL15-17 • 21-13Final Score: Mount St. Mary's 69-47 Fairfield

Fairfield 79.3%Mount St. Mary's 20.7%

66-76142.0Fairfield -9.4

Merrimack at Niagara • FINAL23-11 • 8-22Final Score: Merrimack 73-66 Niagara

Merrimack 81.5%Niagara 18.5%

71-63133.4Merrimack -7.9

Saint Peter's at Marist • FINAL17-12 • 19-12Final Score: Saint Peter's 63-56 Marist

Marist 71.1%Saint Peter's 28.9%

64-71135.0Marist -7.0

Iona at Manhattan • FINAL18-14 • 12-20Final Score: Iona 69-65 Manhattan

Iona 58.4%Manhattan 41.6%

77-75152.0Iona -1.8

DePaul at Marquette • FINAL16-16 • 12-20Final Score: DePaul 62-51 Marquette

Marquette 72.0%DePaul 28.0%

70-76146.1Marquette -5.7

Southern Illinois at Evansville • FINAL16-16 • 7-25Final Score: Southern Illinois 81-67 Evansville

Southern Illinois 88.6%Evansville 11.4%

78-66143.3Southern Illinois -11.7

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.