Toledo

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GAME THAT MATTERSAT

33.2%Toledo

66.8%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -4.5

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -201

Arkansas State

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MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 76

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreArkansas State 80

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricArkansas State

53.9MMH Power Index55.8

112.5Offensive Efficiency112.0

106.1Defensive Efficiency104.9

6.4Net Efficiency7.1

-0.9Strength of Schedule-1.4

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency7.2

69.4Tempo71.2

52.8%Effective FG%52.2%

16.2%Turnover Rate17.4%

30.7%Offensive Rebound %32.6%

34.4%Free Throw Rate36.7%

4.4Average Margin5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (55.8–53.9), defensive efficiency (104.9–106.1), net efficiency (7.1–6.4), recent form (7.2–6.4).

Toledo COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (112.5–112.0), strength of schedule (-0.9–-1.4), shooting efficiency (52.8–52.2).