2026-27 Big West Preview

2026-10-07

The Big West enters 2026-27 with a very different shape.

Hawai'i and UC Davis are gone. Sacramento State, California Baptist and Utah Valley are in. UC San Diego and UC Santa Barbara are beginning their final Big West seasons before moving to the West Coast Conference.

That creates one of the more interesting preseason races in the mid-major landscape.

Blue Ribbon favors UC Irvine and Cal Poly. Bart Torvik is much more bullish on UC Santa Barbara, UC San Diego and Utah Valley. MMH lands somewhere in the middle — but with one major call at the top.

MMH is picking UC Santa Barbara to win the Big West.

2026-27 Big West Team Pages

UC Santa Barbara  | UC San Diego  | UC Irvine  | Cal Poly  | Utah Valley  | Sacramento State  | Cal State Fullerton  | CSUN  | California Baptist  | Long Beach State  | UC Riverside  | Cal State Bakersfield

MMH Projected Order

1. UC Santa Barbara - 16-6
2. UC San Diego - 15-7
3. UC Irvine - 15-7
4. Cal Poly - 14-8
5. Utah Valley - 13-9
6. Sacramento State - 12-10
7. Cal State Fullerton - 11-11
8. CSUN - 10-12
9. California Baptist - 9-13
10. Long Beach State - 7-15
11. UC Riverside - 6-16
12. Cal State Bakersfield - 4-18 The records balance to 132-132 across a 22-game conference schedule.

This is not a ranking of last season's teams. It is an attempt to translate returning production, roster turnover, transfer quality, experience, roster fit and program stability into a 2026-27 projection.

Other preseason picks

Where MMH differs

The biggest disagreement is at the top.

Blue Ribbon has UC Irvine first and UC Santa Barbara fifth. Torvik has UCSB as the highest-rated Big West team, projecting the Gauchos at No. 99 nationally with the league's best offensive profile. MMH agrees more with Torvik here.

MMH is also higher on Utah Valley than Blue Ribbon. The Wolverines are new to the Big West, but they are not entering as a rebuilding program. They won 25 games last season and return enough size and experience to matter immediately.

The other notable disagreement is CSUN. Josiah Davis gives the Matadors one of the league's best individual players, but MMH is more cautious about a roster that must integrate a large number of new pieces.

1. UC Santa Barbara

The league's best combination of guard play and lineup flexibility

UC Santa Barbara is the MMH pick because the Gauchos have fewer obvious weaknesses than most of the league's contenders.

Miro Little gives Joe Pasternack a veteran lead guard with size, vision and experience. He averaged 11.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists last season despite missing significant time with injuries. A healthy Little changes the ceiling of the entire offense.

CJ Shaw may be the player who pushes UCSB over the top. He averaged 12.2 points as a freshman and shot 43.2 percent from three. He already proved he can score efficiently; now the next step is becoming a more complete creator.

The supporting cast is deep. RJ Smith arrives from DePaul as an experienced two-way guard. Viljami Vartiainen brings high-level shooting after making better than 42 percent from three at Weber State. Marvin McGhee IV returns as another floor spacer, while Antonio Chol and Eric Dibami give the Gauchos several different ways to build the frontcourt.

Projected core: Miro Little, CJ Shaw, RJ Smith, Viljami Vartiainen, Antonio Chol, Eric Dibami, Marvin McGhee IV.

Why they can win it: Multiple ballhandlers, shooting at several positions, experienced guards and enough frontcourt depth to survive different matchups.

Biggest question: Whether the frontcourt can consistently control the glass against the league's bigger teams.

MMH view: UCSB has the best blend of ceiling and stability in the league. The Gauchos are the pick.

2. UC San Diego

Continuity keeps the Tritons in the title race

UC San Diego did not repeat its 30-win breakthrough last season, but the Tritons still won 23 games and finished the year playing some of their best basketball.

That matters because a large part of the rotation is back.

Tom Beattie remains one of the league's most versatile players. He averaged 10.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists and can function as a secondary ballhandler, wing defender or connective piece depending on the lineup.

Leo Beath gives UCSD a proven frontcourt scorer after averaging 12.2 points and 5.1 rebounds. Alex Chaikin gives the Tritons another reliable shooter, while Camp Wagner adds size on the wing.

The major addition is Rahmir Barno. He averaged 11.7 points and 5.0 assists at Florida Gulf Coast and should take over the lead-guard role. Jordan Johnson and Kayde Dotson add even more perimeter creation.

Projected core: Rahmir Barno, Tom Beattie, Jordan Johnson, Camp Wagner, Leo Beath, Kayde Dotson, Alex Chaikin, Olavi Suutela.

Why they can win it: Guard depth, shooting, continuity and a system that has already proven it can produce efficient basketball.

Biggest question: Whether the new backcourt hierarchy fits together quickly enough.

MMH view: The Tritons have one of the highest floors in the conference. There is very little separating them from UCSB and Irvine.

3. UC Irvine

The safest program in the league

UC Irvine lost its top scorers, but Russell Turner's program rarely depends on one player or one recruiting class.

The Anteaters won the 2025-26 regular-season title by defending, rebounding and sharing the ball. Much of that infrastructure remains.

Tama Isaac returns at point guard after starting as a freshman. Jovan Jester Jr. showed real upside as a scorer and defender. Harrison Carrington is positioned for a larger offensive role after averaging 8.5 points while shooting efficiently.

Nils Cooper is one of the league's most important transfers. He averaged 12.3 points and 4.6 rebounds at UC Davis while shooting 54.9 percent from the field. He already knows the conference and fits Irvine's preference for versatile two-way wings.

Then there is Olivier Rioux. At 7-foot-9, he changes the geometry of the floor whenever he plays, even if Irvine must alter some of its normal offensive spacing around him.

Projected core: Tama Isaac, Jovan Jester Jr., Nils Cooper, Harrison Carrington, Olivier Rioux, Josiah Johnson, Torian Lee, Nes Emeneke.

Why they can win it: Defense, depth, continuity and the most established winning identity in the league.

Biggest question: Who becomes the player Irvine trusts to create a shot late in the clock?

MMH view: Blue Ribbon has Irvine first. MMH has them third, but this is still absolutely a championship-caliber roster.

4. Cal Poly

The rare team that actually kept its roster together

Cal Poly may have the most unusual roster story in the Big West.

The Mustangs return almost everybody.

Hamad Mousa is the headline. He averaged 20.4 points and 6.3 rebounds and turned down opportunities elsewhere to return to San Luis Obispo. He is MMH's preseason Player of the Year pick.

Cayden Ward gives Cal Poly another proven scorer after averaging 14.5 points and 6.3 rebounds. Jess Esso Essis is one of the most unusual lead guards in the country at 6-foot-10 and shot 41.4 percent from three in limited action last season.

Jake Davis, Guzman Vasilic, Austin Goode and Ali Assran give Mike DeGeorge a level of continuity that is almost nonexistent in modern college basketball.

The problem is that continuity only matters if the Mustangs improve the areas that held them back last season. Cal Poly turned the ball over too often and was not good enough defensively.

Projected core: Jess Esso Essis, Hamad Mousa, Cayden Ward, Jake Davis, Austin Goode, Guzman Vasilic, Anthony Moore.

Why they can win it: Elite returning production and one of the deepest groups of experienced scorers in the conference.

Biggest question: Can the defense and turnover rate improve enough to match the offensive talent?

MMH view: The upside is real. If Cal Poly becomes even an average defensive team, the Mustangs can win the league.

5. Utah Valley

The most dangerous newcomer

Utah Valley is new to the Big West, but this is not a typical expansion team.

The Wolverines have won 25 games in consecutive seasons and enter the league with a program that already expects to compete for championships.

Isaac Davis was one of the most efficient players in the WAC last season, averaging 10.9 points while shooting 62.3 percent from the field. Isaac Hawkins gives Utah Valley another long, athletic frontcourt piece after shooting 66.2 percent and blocking 1.5 shots per game.

Braden Housley returns in the backcourt, while Jordy Barnes arrives from Utah State to organize the offense. AJ Dixon gives the Wolverines another shot-maker after a productive junior-college career.

The biggest issue is replacing the high-end creation that left the roster, but Utah Valley has enough depth to spread the load.

Projected core: Jordy Barnes, Braden Housley, AJ Dixon, Isaac Davis, Isaac Hawkins, Sherman Weatherspoon IV, Tanner Davis, Sebastian Muchitsch.

Why they can win it: Frontcourt size, defensive length, experience and a program that already knows how to win.

Biggest question: Who becomes the go-to perimeter scorer?

MMH view: Blue Ribbon's ninth-place projection is too low. Utah Valley is a legitimate first-division team and the league's most dangerous newcomer.

6. Sacramento State

MMH's Big West sleeper

Sacramento State is the team MMH believes can most dramatically outperform its recent history.

The Hornets went 10-21 last season, but the roster now looks completely different.

Mikey Williams is the highest-upside player on the team after averaging 17.1 points and 4.5 assists. Larry Hughes II arrives from CSUN after averaging 17.7 points and shooting 39 percent from three. Marcus Wilson gives Sacramento State another experienced creator after averaging 12.5 points and 3.9 assists at UC Davis.

That is a serious amount of perimeter talent.

The frontcourt is more interesting too. Mason Hunt averaged 18.2 points at Pima Community College. Osiris Grady brings Big West experience after averaging 10.2 points and 5.7 rebounds at UC Riverside. Ridvan Tutic adds rebounding and size.

The Hornets do not have to become elite defensively. They simply need to become competent enough to let the backcourt win games.

Projected core: Marcus Wilson, Mikey Williams, Larry Hughes II, Mason Hunt, Osiris Grady, Arman Madi, Ridvan Tutic, Chidi Nwigwe.

Why they can surprise: Few teams in the league can match the amount of proven scoring Sacramento State can put on the floor.

Biggest question: Can the defense, rebounding and shot selection catch up with the talent?

MMH view: This is what a sleeper should look like — a team coming off a losing season with a roster that now has a much higher ceiling.

7. Cal State Fullerton

Enough experience to stay dangerous

Fullerton bounced back last season and has enough returning structure to avoid a major step backward.

Christian Williams is the most important holdover after averaging 9.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.9 steals. Bailey Nunn gives the Titans another returning shooter.

The newcomers will determine the ceiling.

Andrew McConnell brings scoring and experience from Cumberlands. Malcolm Bell averaged 14.7 points and 6.8 rebounds at Cal Poly and gives Fullerton a physical wing who can score and rebound.

Matthew Willenborg may be the most intriguing addition. He averaged 20.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.0 blocks at Central Oklahoma and gives the Titans a productive two-way frontcourt piece.

Projected core: Christian Williams, Andrew McConnell, Malcolm Bell, Matthew Willenborg, Kendrick De Luna, Bailey Nunn, Rockwell Reynolds.

Why they can move up: There is enough scoring and frontcourt production to beat good teams.

Biggest question: Whether the perimeter creation is strong enough to consistently close games.

MMH view: Fullerton looks like a solid middle-tier team with top-five upside.

8. CSUN

Josiah Davis gives the Matadors a chance every night

CSUN's projection starts with one of the best players in the conference.

Josiah Davis averaged 15.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists last season and finished among the national leaders in assists. He is one of the rare returning stars in a league filled with roster turnover.

The issue is everything around him.

Brooklyn Hicks arrives from Montana as a two-way scoring guard. Caleb Smith is an elite rebounding guard after grabbing 7.1 boards per game at Rider. BJ Omot is the swing piece; if he looks like the player who averaged 16.7 points at North Dakota before injuries disrupted his career, CSUN's ceiling rises dramatically.

Emmanuel Stephen and Lamine Niang give the Matadors size inside, while Daniel Culberson and Naceiar Kirksey add more ballhandling and scoring depth.

Projected core: Josiah Davis, Brooklyn Hicks, Caleb Smith, BJ Omot, Emmanuel Stephen, Daniel Culberson, Mikah Ballew, Naceiar Kirksey.

Why they can beat the projection: Davis can control games, and there is more talent around him than the roster turnover initially suggests.

Biggest question: How quickly can the newcomers become a coherent team?

MMH view: Blue Ribbon has CSUN fourth. MMH is more cautious, but the Matadors are capable of proving this projection too low.

9. California Baptist

A talented reset after a historic season

California Baptist is coming off the best Division I season in program history.

The Lancers won 25 games, reached the NCAA Tournament and then lost their head coach and top seven scorers.

That makes this one of the league's hardest teams to project.

Terry Coner Jr. was a Division II All-American after averaging 19.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists at Oklahoma Baptist. Ethan Duncan brings proven shooting after averaging 10.5 points at Lipscomb.

Jordan Muller is one of the few returning players with a meaningful role from last season. Justas Stonkus, Rene D'Amelio and O.J. Blankson give new coach Kyle Getter some continuity.

The long-term upside may come from the freshmen, particularly four-star guard Steven Reynolds III.

Projected core: Terry Coner Jr., Ethan Duncan, Jordan Muller, Justas Stonkus, Rene D'Amelio, Steven Reynolds III, Nick Richart.

Why they can beat the projection: Getter inherited enough talent and recruiting upside to make the transition year competitive.

Biggest question: How quickly can an almost entirely new rotation learn to win together?

MMH view: The upside is real, but asking this group to immediately duplicate a 25-win NCAA Tournament season is too much.

10. Long Beach State

More shooting, more experience, almost no continuity

Long Beach State is rebuilding again, but the roster construction makes more sense this time.

McCaden Adams was a junior-college All-American after averaging 18.4 points while shooting better than 40 percent from three. Jaden Tengan averaged 17.3 points at Cal State Monterey Bay.

Jack Payne brings Division I experience. Brett Wright was one of the most efficient three-point shooters in Division II. Kaleb Smith already has a productive Big West season on his résumé from his time at UC Riverside.

The most obvious physical presence is 7-foot-2 Noah Amenhauser, who gives the Beach a true interior focal point.

Projected core: McCaden Adams, Jaden Tengan, Jack Payne, Kaleb Smith, Noah Amenhauser, Brett Wright, Yohann Sissoko.

Why they can improve: The roster has more shooting and more experienced college players than last year's group.

Biggest question: Can a nearly brand-new team defend well enough to survive the first two months?

MMH view: Long Beach should be better, but the top half of the league still looks a step ahead.

11. UC Riverside

A more athletic roster with more shooting

UC Riverside's first season under Gus Argenal was difficult, but the Highlanders should look different this year.

Aidan Rice arrives from Western Washington after averaging 18.2 points and 4.0 assists while shooting 36.9 percent from three. De'Undrae Perteete Jr. returns after shooting 41.6 percent from deep.

Tony Duckett, Devon Malcolm and Easton Reagan give Riverside more athleticism on the wing. Tyus Parrish-Tillman gives the Highlanders a productive frontcourt anchor after averaging 15.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocks at Biola.

Dallas Washington and Abraham Oyeadier add more length.

Projected core: Aidan Rice, De'Undrae Perteete Jr., Tony Duckett, Devon Malcolm, Tyus Parrish-Tillman, Easton Reagan, Dallas Washington.

Why they can improve: More shooting and better positional size should make the offense easier to play.

Biggest question: Can the defense improve enough to turn competitive games into wins?

MMH view: Riverside should be better than last year's five-win conference team, but the league's depth makes a major jump difficult.

12. Cal State Bakersfield

A rebuild with some intriguing veteran pieces

Todd Lee takes over a program that won only two Big West games last season.

The rebuild begins in the backcourt.

Kjay Bradley averaged 14.5 points and 3.5 assists at San Diego and should have the ball in his hands immediately. Jaden Alexander is the key returning piece and gives the Roadrunners a physical two-way wing.

EJ Bryson adds another experienced guard. Bryce Cofield arrives from Cal State Fullerton after averaging 10.1 points and 4.8 rebounds. Tom Koppens brings professional experience from Australia and can function as a point-forward type.

The roster is still thin compared with the league's contenders, but there is enough experience to make Bakersfield more competitive.

Projected core: Kjay Bradley, Jaden Alexander, EJ Bryson, Bryce Cofield, Tom Koppens, Pietro Iannuzzi, Cameron Barnes.

Why they can improve: The guard play should be better immediately.

Biggest question: Whether the Roadrunners have enough shooting and frontcourt production to keep pace offensively.

MMH view: There should be progress, but this still looks like the first year of a multi-year climb.

MMH Top 10 Players

1. Hamad Mousa, Cal Poly — 20.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG and the league's toughest individual matchup.
2. Josiah Davis, CSUN — 15.9 PPG, 7.4 APG and elite control of the game.
3. Larry Hughes II, Sacramento State — 17.7 PPG, 39.0% from three and proven Big West scoring.
4. Leo Beath, UC San Diego — Proven frontcourt scorer on a title contender.
5. Miro Little, UC Santa Barbara — Veteran lead guard whose health raises UCSB's ceiling.
6. Cayden Ward, Cal Poly — 14.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG and major secondary scoring.
7. Mikey Williams, Sacramento State — 17.1 PPG, 4.5 APG and one of the league's highest ceilings.
8. Rahmir Barno, UC San Diego — Proven point guard stepping into an efficient system.
9. CJ Shaw, UC Santa Barbara — 12.2 PPG and 43.2% from three as a freshman.
10. Isaac Davis, Utah Valley — Efficient interior scorer on a team built to contend immediately.

Impact Newcomers

Rahmir Barno — UC San Diego

A proven point guard entering one of the league's best offensive systems.

Nils Cooper — UC Irvine

Already productive in the Big West and an ideal fit for Irvine's defensive identity.

RJ Smith — UC Santa Barbara

A veteran guard who gives UCSB another ballhandler and two-way option.

Jordy Barnes — Utah Valley

A distributor with high-level experience who should organize a deep roster.

Terry Coner Jr. — California Baptist

A Division II All-American stepping into a large offensive role immediately.

Matthew Willenborg — Cal State Fullerton

A productive scorer, rebounder and shot blocker who could translate quickly.

McCaden Adams — Long Beach State

A highly efficient junior-college scorer with a chance to lead the Beach in usage.

MMH Sleeper: Sacramento State

Utah Valley may be underrated by some preseason publications, but a team coming off consecutive 25-win seasons is not really a sleeper.

Sacramento State is.

The Hornets went 10-21 last season and are moving into a tougher conference. On the surface, that does not look like an obvious breakout profile.

The roster says otherwise.

Mikey Williams gives Sacramento State a dynamic creator. Larry Hughes II already proved he can be an upper-tier Big West scorer. Marcus Wilson adds another experienced lead guard. Mason Hunt and Osiris Grady give the frontcourt legitimate scoring and athleticism.

The defense still has to come together, but Sacramento State has enough offensive talent to finish much higher than its recent history suggests.

Breakout Candidate: CJ Shaw, UC Santa Barbara

Shaw averaged 12.2 points as a freshman and shot 43.2 percent from three.

That is already a strong baseline.

With a full year of experience and Miro Little healthy beside him, Shaw has a chance to become one of the league's most efficient scorers and one of the main reasons UCSB wins the conference.

Best Backcourts

1. Cal Poly — Hamad Mousa, Jess Esso Essis, Cayden Ward and Jake Davis give the Mustangs scoring, size and continuity.
2. Sacramento State — Mikey Williams, Larry Hughes II and Marcus Wilson may be the league's most explosive trio.
3. UC San Diego — Rahmir Barno, Tom Beattie, Jordan Johnson and Kayde Dotson provide unusual depth.
4. UC Santa Barbara — Miro Little, CJ Shaw and RJ Smith give the Gauchos multiple creators.
5. UC Irvine — less proven scoring, but excellent size and two-way potential.

Best Frontcourts

1. Utah Valley — Isaac Davis and Isaac Hawkins headline a deep, athletic group.
2. UC Irvine — Harrison Carrington, Olivier Rioux and Nes Emeneke give the Anteaters size and matchup flexibility.
3. UC Santa Barbara — Antonio Chol, Eric Dibami and Koat Keat Tong provide depth and different looks.
4. UC San Diego — Leo Beath is the anchor, with Olavi Suutela and Jaden Vance adding skill.
5. Cal State Fullerton — Matthew Willenborg and Kendrick De Luna give the Titans production and experience.

MMH Preseason Awards

• Projected Champion: UC Santa Barbara
• Player of the Year: Hamad Mousa, Cal Poly
• Newcomer of the Year: Rahmir Barno, UC San Diego
• Sleeper: Sacramento State
• Most Dangerous Newcomer: Utah Valley
• Breakout Player: CJ Shaw, UC Santa Barbara
• Best Backcourt: Cal Poly
• Best Frontcourt: Utah Valley

March Outlook

The Big West looks like a one-bid league entering the season, but the top of the conference is good enough to produce a dangerous NCAA Tournament representative.

UC Santa Barbara, UC San Diego and UC Irvine all have credible championship cases. Cal Poly has the offensive talent to crash that group. Utah Valley enters with a winning culture and enough size to immediately become a factor.

The team with the most interesting range of outcomes is Sacramento State.

If the Hornets defend well enough, the sleeper label may not last very long.

The Big West Tournament is scheduled for March 10-13 at Lee's Family Forum in Henderson, Nevada.