2026-27 MAC Sleeper: Buffalo Has More Than a Starling Story
2026-10-14
Buffalo's sleeper case starts with an update to the roster, but it cannot end there.
Blue Ribbon projects the Bulls tenth in the MAC. That team discussion was built around a new backcourt of Mikkel Tyne, Drew Steffe and Dylan Ducommun. On September 4, Buffalo announced the addition of J.J. Starling, the former Syracuse guard with 88 appearances for the Orange.
That is enough to require a new assessment. MMH puts Buffalo sixth with a projected 12-10 conference record. The more ambitious outcome is a place in the top-four race, but that requires the new frontcourt to support the guards with better defense and rebounding.
What makes the roster different
Starling offers an established scoring option against opponents who cannot simply load their defense toward one ballhandler. Tyne has extensive Division I starting experience, Steffe supplies wing size and playmaking, and Ducommun has already run an offense in this league at Northern Illinois. Buffalo can use different combinations without asking an untested guard to create every advantage.
The distinction matters. Starling's Syracuse career average of 13.8 points is evidence of prior responsibility against a high level of competition. It is not a promise that his efficiency or shot selection will improve automatically in the MAC. Halcovage still has to define who initiates possessions, who works away from the ball and which guards defend together best.
Our projected starting group uses Tyne, Starling and Steffe around two frontcourt transfers. Ducommun remains a major rotation player and a realistic starter. A guard's inclusion on the bench here describes one opening configuration, not a fixed ceiling on his minutes.
The frontcourt carries the bigger test
Antoine Lorick and Jalen Pitre both arrived from Tennessee State, giving the Bulls a frontcourt pairing with experience playing together. Lorick can affect shots and move across defensive assignments. Pitre supplies rebounding and efficient interior finishing.
Their most important task is to give the perimeter enough defensive support. Buffalo's previous offense had strong shooting, but replacing the roster means that shooting is no longer a banked advantage. The Bulls need possessions that end with a controlled rebound, rather than asking the guards to recover the same points at the other end.
Boluwasefe John and Tristan Kuska add frontcourt alternatives from different competition levels. Their prior production is useful background, while the move to Division I creates an adaptation question. Buffalo's depth is a reason for optimism if it gives the staff functional choices, rather than merely a longer list of available names.
Projected starting group and rotation
| Projected role | Player | What he supplies |
|---|---|---|
| PG | Mikkel Tyne | Experienced lead guard and point-of-attack defender |
| G | J.J. Starling | Primary scoring guard; career figures are not last-season averages |
| W | Drew Steffe | Wing scorer and secondary creator |
| F | Antoine Lorick | Mobile forward with defensive versatility |
| C | Jalen Pitre | Rebounder and efficient interior finisher |
Ducommun, Kyle Jones, Harrison Reede, John and Kuska form the main additional options in this projection. Matas Buteliauskas, JJ Frakes, Evan Romano and Jahrel Vigo compete for further opportunities. These are MMH roles, rather than an announced depth chart.
Reede's 53.2% three-point season at Incarnate Word came on 79 attempts. It suggests a useful specialist, but the sample is too limited to assume that percentage carries over. The same distinction applies to several of the roster's lower-division scoring figures: they establish possible skills, not equivalent future MAC production.
What the upside requires
Buffalo can outperform this sixth-place forecast if Starling provides efficient creation, the guards share offensive work and the Tennessee State forwards help produce a dependable defense. Those improvements fit together. Better defensive possessions give the guards chances to attack before opponents establish their matchups, and a deeper backcourt makes it easier to handle different styles.
The new 22-game schedule will expose any weakness repeatedly. Buffalo plays every league opponent home and away, so a strong conference record will have to survive more than a favorable stretch. The first target is consistent tournament qualification. The next is the top-four race and its valuable postseason bye.
What could hold the Bulls back
The roster still has to establish its shooting balance and closing lineup. Starling adds talent, but that does not settle the fit among four guards who can handle the ball. If the forwards cannot improve defensive rebounding, the offense may have to work too hard to sustain a winning league record.
We prefer Buffalo as the sleeper because the difference between its current roster and the yearbook baseline is tangible. Western Michigan's new system and Eastern Michigan's deeper roster remain alternative upside stories. Buffalo has the clearest late change that deserves to be reflected in a revised forecast.
Sources and projection notes
Research cutoff: October 14, 2026. Blue Ribbon 2026-27, Buffalo entry, printed pages 260-261, provides the initial roster background and tenth-place conference forecast. Buffalo's September signing announcement and current official roster supply the Starling update. Starling's cited figures are his Syracuse career averages, not one season's totals. The projected record and lineup are MMH judgments.
Read the complete MAC preview and MMH's top 10 players.