2026-27 Mid-American Preview: Miami Leads a Deeper MAC, Buffalo Is the Sleeper

2026-10-14

The Mid-American Conference has a cleaner championship race to measure in 2026-27: twelve teams, twenty-two league games and a home-and-away meeting with every opponent.

Northern Illinois has moved to the Horizon League, while UMass begins its second MAC basketball season. The new double round-robin schedule removes the uneven opponent mix. A contender will have to prove itself across the whole league.

Miami enters as the defending regular-season champion after an 18-0 conference season and a 32-2 overall finish. Akron won the tournament and also reached the NCAA field. Both remain central to the race, but Ohio's returning Jackson Paveletzke and a series of consequential transfers make this more than a two-team discussion.

MMH projects Miami as the regular-season champion, with Akron second and Ohio third. Buffalo is our sleeper, lifted by the September addition of J.J. Starling and a rebuilt frontcourt. Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan are other programs with credible routes to a substantial step forward.

Blue Ribbon is the starting point for this preview. Current official rosters and school announcements update that baseline, including Kamrin Oriol at Akron, Starling at Buffalo, Paveletzke at Ohio, Christian Henry at Kent State, and Zaon Collins and Kijani Wright at Ball State. Our projected starters are editorial judgments, rather than announced opening-night lineups.

MMH projected order and preseason comparisons

Projected records balance to 132 wins and 132 losses, with 22 league games per team. They are MMH editorial forecasts. Ordering teams with similar forecasts expresses our assessment, rather than a prediction of the conference's eventual tiebreaker.

The 2026-27 men's basketball coaches poll was not verified in our October 14 source check. The older 2025-26 poll is not used in this table. The Torvik column now uses the user-supplied screenshot headed 2027 T-Rank College Basketball Projections, filtered to MAC. It records the conference order derived from the national rankings shown in that snapshot; it is not an official poll or a forecast of conference tiebreakers.

Our largest move from Blue Ribbon is Buffalo, from tenth in that forecast to sixth here. Starling's addition matters because it gives the new roster an experienced high-level creator alongside Mikkel Tyne, Drew Steffe and Dylan Ducommun. The Bulls still have to show that their new personnel improve defense and rebounding.

Ohio moves from fifth in Blue Ribbon to third in MMH. Paveletzke is now listed as a fifth-year player on Ohio's current roster, restoring a proven lead guard alongside Javan Simmons. We give that continuity more weight than the roster picture described in the yearbook. Toledo remains a contender, but the availability of Sean Jones and other players returning from injuries adds uncertainty.

What the Torvik snapshot changes

Torvik puts Akron first in the MAC and 98th nationally, with Miami second and 103rd. That is a close leading pair, even though the projected records differ from ours. Akron's defensive estimate is the better of the two at 101.0 adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions, while Miami has the stronger offensive estimate at 111.5. MMH keeps Miami first on returning guard play and familiarity, with Akron a narrow second rather than a distant challenger.

Ohio is our largest disagreement: third in MMH, fifth in Blue Ribbon and tenth in the supplied Torvik order. The snapshot projects the Bobcats at 9-13 in conference play, compared with our 15-7. Paveletzke's return, Simmons' interior production and the incoming guard options support our more optimistic assessment. Torvik's defensive estimate of 109.5 is a reason for caution. We cannot determine the model's player or eligibility assumptions from this screenshot, so we do not attribute the disagreement to a missing player. Ohio must still prove it can defend and rebound at the level its offense needs.

Eastern Michigan is the other major point of tension. Torvik places the Eagles fifth, with an 11-11 league projection; MMH has them ninth at 9-13, and Blue Ribbon eighth. That strengthens the case for treating Donlon's team as an upside candidate. We retain the conservative placement because its guard hierarchy and the translation of lower-division production remain uncertain, with Habhab and the deeper frontcourt giving it a credible way to exceed that forecast.

Buffalo is sixth in MMH, seventh in the Torvik snapshot and tenth in Blue Ribbon. That makes our sleeper case a larger departure from the yearbook than from Torvik. Western Michigan is also closely grouped: seventh in MMH and Blue Ribbon, sixth in Torvik. Central Michigan is more competitive in Torvik's projected record at 9-13 than in our 4-18 forecast, a useful warning about how quickly the lower half could compress.

The rounded conference records shown in Torvik's screenshot add to 131 wins and 133 losses. They are preserved as a source snapshot and have not been adjusted to make them balance. MMH's separate 22-game forecasts total 132-132. No MMH team order, projected record, player ranking or rotation is changed solely to match the outside table.

Last season's standings

Northern Illinois went 4-14 in the MAC and 9-21 overall before leaving the conference. It is excluded from the 2026-27 projections. UMass' final overall record was 17-16; the yearbook's summary standings show 16-16, but its team entry and the official MAC statistics include the tournament win.

The title race

Miami has the strongest combination of returning decision-makers and familiar offensive roles. Akron can challenge it with a new scoring backcourt and Evan Mahaffey's versatility. Ohio's veteran foundation makes it a serious third option, while Kent State has enough ballhandling and frontcourt alternatives to remain in contention through a major roster reset.

The distinction between second and third is especially important this year. The top two tournament seeds receive byes into the semifinals; seeds three and four enter in the quarterfinals. Only eight teams qualify. The regular-season race creates advantages well beyond the difference between a banner and a near miss.

1. Miami (Ohio)

Projected MAC record: 17-5 | Coach: Travis Steele

Miami has earned the favorite label, but repeating last season's unbeaten league record is a different proposition. Peter Suder, Eian Elmer and Brant Byers are no longer the foundation of the offense. Travis Steele instead starts with Luke Skaljac, Evan Ipsaro and Almar Atlason, plus Antwone Woolfolk in the frontcourt. Ipsaro's recovery from his ACL injury is a material assumption in our starting group.

Skaljac can direct an offense with multiple shooters rather than carry every possession himself. Justin Kirby offers a path to a larger two-way role, while Stevie Elam and Rich Rolf add shooting from the bench. Woolfolk, Preston Copeland and Tyler Robbins allow Steele to preserve size around that perimeter skill. Miami's edge is how many of these players already understand what the staff asks them to do.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Stevie Elam, Rich Rolf, Preston Copeland, Tyler Robbins, Kyle Waltz, Leshawn Stowers, Anthony Fresh.

Key question: How effectively Ipsaro returns and whether the wings replace the scoring and defense that left.

2. Akron

Projected MAC record: 16-6 | Coach: Dustin Ford

Dustin Ford takes over from John Groce with a roster that has changed substantially, yet still looks capable of winning the league. Mahaffey is the connective player: he can handle, facilitate and defend several positions. Tahj Staveskie brings scoring and ballhandling from Incarnate Word, and the current roster adds North Florida scorer Kamrin Oriol to a backcourt already stronger than the initial yearbook picture.

Oriol averaged 20.9 points at North Florida last season, but Akron should not need him to reproduce that usage to benefit from his shooting. Ty Pence can play beside Mahaffey, and Max Burton supplies an experienced post. Zach Halligan, Colin White and Buddy Hammer Jr. give Ford alternatives when a matchup requires more defense or size. We lean toward the new scoring guards as starters, while recognizing Halligan's experience could keep him in the first unit.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Zach Halligan, Colin White, Buddy Hammer Jr., Chabi Barre, Exavier Wilson, Cody Head, Tai Perkins.

Key question: How quickly the new backcourt shares the ball and whether the new staff builds a consistent defense.

3. Ohio

Projected MAC record: 15-7 | Coach: Jeff Boals

Ohio's current roster changes the preseason discussion. Paveletzke is listed for a fifth year after averaging 17.3 points and 5.3 assists last season. With Simmons returning inside, Jeff Boals has two players who can organize the offense around them. That is a stronger starting point than treating this as a team with only one established returnee.

Kyler D'Augustino and Kolton Mitchell bring productive Division I guard experience. Siebe Ledegen and Dusan Makitan add international experience and frontcourt options, although club statistics are not directly interchangeable with NCAA production. Our first group keeps size around Simmons and uses Mitchell as a major reserve; a three-guard lineup is a realistic alternative. Ohio's placement depends on turning its deeper offensive options into a balanced team.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Kolton Mitchell, Kiir Kuany, Jesse Burris, Marin Petkov, Ché Brogan, Moek Icke, Zay Mosley.

Key question: Defensive rebounding and how well the international newcomers fit around the veteran guards.

4. Kent State

Projected MAC record: 14-8 | Coach: Rob Senderoff

Rob Senderoff has lost last season's starting group, but this does not look like a roster built to accept a long retreat. Chansey Willis Jr. has already produced at an All-MAC level at Western Michigan. Christian Henry, now on the current roster, brings another experienced organizer after averaging 5.1 assists at Fordham. Together they give the new frontcourt a reasonable chance to receive the ball in useful positions.

Dhani Miller has an opportunity to contribute early, while Quinn Woidke remains a proven shooting option if available after shoulder recovery. Cameron Williams, Latif Diouf and Godslove Nwabude offer different ways to build the frontcourt. Diouf's prior season was brief, and several returnees have recent injury histories. The current roster does not list Dorian Jones, so he is not counted in this projection despite his appearance in Blue Ribbon.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Quinn Woidke, Godslove Nwabude, Dezmon Briscoe, Jamal Sumlin, Brenden Moss, Jaymen Townsend, Landon Vanderwarker.

Key question: Availability and which combination gives Senderoff enough shooting without sacrificing interior defense.

5. Toledo

Projected MAC record: 13-9 | Coach: Tod Kowalczyk

Toledo replaces Sonny Wilson and Leroy Blyden Jr. with a backcourt led by Marquette transfer Sean Jones. The upside is clear: Jones can create pace and get the offense into the paint. The limitation is his recent playing history, with only eight appearances last season after earlier injury interruptions. Our contender assessment assumes he can hold a regular role.

Austin Parks gives Tod Kowalczyk a familiar post scorer. Angel Montas Jr. brings productive offense from UMass Lowell, and Mynor Strong can build on his late-season starting run. Rich Barron is another availability-dependent perimeter option. We project Montas at the four in a smaller group, with Jaylan Ouwinga a legitimate starting alternative when size is needed. Will James Jr. and Chris Riddle also have routes to meaningful wing minutes.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Jaylan Ouwinga, Will James Jr., Chris Riddle, Rashaun Porter, Manny Johnson, Jaylohn Allen, Marco Mattucci.

Key question: Whether Jones sustains his availability and the Rockets improve their defense enough to support the offense.

6. Buffalo

Projected MAC record: 12-10 | Coach: George Halcovage III

Buffalo's forecast should be updated for Starling, whose September signing followed the roster described in the yearbook. He gives George Halcovage III a guard with extensive ACC experience and a clear path to become a leading scorer. Tyne, Steffe and Ducommun mean the Bulls can ask him to share creation rather than generate every good shot.

The defensive case rests on Antoine Lorick and Jalen Pitre, who arrived from Tennessee State. They give the Bulls mobility and a more convincing rebounding foundation. Buffalo's offensive ceiling is attractive, but the previous team's shooting cannot simply be assigned to a new lineup. We put the Bulls sixth and above .500 in league play because their current roster has a credible answer to more than one weakness.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Dylan Ducommun, Kyle Jones, Harrison Reede, Boluwasefe John, Tristan Kuska, Matas Buteliauskas, JJ Frakes.

Key question: How much the new frontcourt improves defense and whether the guard rotation produces enough consistent shooting.

7. Western Michigan

Projected MAC record: 11-11 | Coach: Kahil Fennell

Kahil Fennell arrives with a substantially rebuilt roster and two guards who already know his system: Jaylen Washington and Julien Gomez from UTRGV. That connection gives Western Michigan a useful head start when the new offense asks several transfers to share the floor. The Broncos can improve quickly without having to manufacture their entire ballhandling structure from scratch.

Rob Lee Jr., Tanner Hayhurst and Isaac Finlinson supply scoring and shooting, while Augustinas Kiudulas lets Fennell use a skilled player at center. Mason Bendinger, Adam Harakow and Janis Jünemann offer different looks from the bench. This is a plausible top-half team if the offense comes together, but a collection of efficient players at previous schools still has to find one workable distribution of shots and minutes.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Julien Gomez, Mason Bendinger, Adam Harakow, Janis Jünemann, Joshua Eli, Ramere Draper, Jordan Sigmon.

Key question: How the new group defends the paint and whether the offense remains efficient against a full league schedule.

8. UMass

Projected MAC record: 10-12 | Coach: Frank Martin

UMass finished its first MAC season with a tournament win over Miami, yet enters this year with substantial scoring to replace. Danny Carbuccia gives Frank Martin an established point guard after averaging 6.3 assists. Jayden Ndjigue supplies physical defense and rebounding from the perimeter. They are useful pieces around which to build a more consistent team.

Junjie Wang, Jordan Clayton and Abdullah Ahmed fill distinct needs: frontcourt spacing, guard shooting and rim protection. Dwayne Wimbley Jr., Luka Damjanac and Dimitri Clerc add continuity to a rotation that also has room for young players. The new scoring hierarchy is less settled than the number of roster options suggests. Improved foul shooting and fewer wasted possessions could make a large difference in close games.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Dwayne Wimbley Jr., Luka Damjanac, Dimitri Clerc, Cam Hailey, Noa Zemljić, Heimir Helgason, Cheick Sylla.

Key question: Where the reliable late-clock scoring comes from and whether the free-throw line becomes a strength.

9. Eastern Michigan

Projected MAC record: 9-13 | Coach: Billy Donlon

Billy Donlon inherits a genuine interior centerpiece in Mohammad Habhab and surrounds him with a deeper, older set of options. Habhab's scoring, rebounding and passing give the Eagles more than a conventional post target. Sencire Harris can change the pressure on opposing guards, while Gregory Lawson II gives the projected starters a returning shooter.

Kilian Brockhoff can work alongside Habhab, and Kaden Johnson provides another skilled big. Jabri Fitzpatrick, Emanuel Richards and Jaiden Martin could all force their way into larger roles. Donlon's challenge is to make those choices fit together: several players arrive from different competition levels, and productive prior scoring does not settle who should close games. We see a tournament contender with more upside than ninth place might suggest.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Jabri Fitzpatrick, Emanuel Richards, Jaiden Martin, Kaden Johnson, Omar Suleiman, DaCory Porter, Jordan Wright.

Key question: Who organizes the offense and whether the expanded depth produces a reliable closing lineup.

10. Bowling Green

Projected MAC record: 6-16 | Coach: Todd Simon

Todd Simon has returning scoring in Josiah Shackelford, but much of the new offense will come from transfers. Jayden Johnson offers an experienced point guard, Juan Cranford Jr. gives the Falcons another perimeter scoring option, and Zach Howell arrives with substantial Division II shooting production. The ingredients are appealing; their translation into one consistent offense remains the question.

Tristan Beckford adds athleticism at forward, while Christ Essandoko provides a much larger post presence. Preston Squire and Aiden Goins allow different frontcourt looks. Trey Simmons' Division II scoring record creates upside, with his role also dependent on availability after summer ankle problems. Our tenth-place projection reflects the uncertainty of replacing major roles in a deeper league, rather than a lack of useful individual talent.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Juan Cranford Jr., Trey Simmons, Makhi Leach, Preston Squire, Aiden Goins, Camden Karel, KJ Torbert.

Key question: How efficiently the transferred scoring translates and whether the frontcourt protects the perimeter players.

11. Ball State

Projected MAC record: 5-17 | Coach: Chris Capko

Chris Capko's first Ball State roster now includes Zaon Collins and Kijani Wright, additions absent from the yearbook's team discussion. Collins brings experienced ballhandling from Fresno State and changes the projected starting point-guard competition with Sean Blake. We use Collins in the first group, while treating Blake as a major rotation player rather than a marginal reserve.

K'Jei Parker, Trey Lewis and Joey Hart give the staff perimeter shooting options. Javion Guy-King and Mason Jones provide size around the guards, and Babatunde Durodola and Jaden Smith share the interior work. Wright expands the frontcourt choices, but two seasons without games make his immediate role difficult to project. The roster is better equipped to score than a simple carryover of last season's results would imply.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Sean Blake, Trey Lewis, Joey Hart, Jaden Smith, Kijani Wright, Aaron Fine, Jazz Henderson Jr..

Key question: How the new staff balances its ballhandlers and whether the defense supports a faster offense.

12. Central Michigan

Projected MAC record: 4-18 | Coach: Andy Bronkema

Andy Bronkema has a clearer returning foundation in Phat Phat Brooks and Keenan Garner. Brooks can direct the offense, while Garner helps through rebounding and transition play. That familiarity matters after the previous roster reset. The challenge is finding enough dependable shooting and interior production to move out of the bottom group.

Jayson Petty adds Division I experience on the perimeter, and Jayden Hackett arrives with a strong junior-college shooting record. Conrad Luczynski gives the Chippewas a large post target with passing ability, while Brock Mendoza supplies a different athletic look. Jaxson Whitaker and Jalen Kampen can support the backcourt, and Jake Bascom has a path to early forward minutes. There is improvement potential here, even with the most conservative record in our forecast.

Projected starting group

Rotation options: Jaxson Whitaker, Jalen Kampen, Uchenna Amene, Brock Mendoza, Jake Bascom, Kareem Aburashed, Travis Ambrose.

Key question: How the new post players adapt and whether the offense has enough spacing around Brooks and Garner.

Players and teams to watch

Skaljac is MMH's player-of-the-year choice, with Paveletzke, Mahaffey and Oriol among the strongest challengers. The award race is open enough that new roles could matter as much as returning scoring averages. Willis and Starling bring particularly interesting transfer cases.

Buffalo is the featured sleeper because its current personnel deserve a fresh assessment after Starling's arrival. Western Michigan's new offense and Eastern Michigan's depth are the other major upside stories. Those teams have different routes upward: the Broncos through spacing and familiar guard play, the Eagles through Habhab, defensive pressure and a wider choice of lineups.

Read MMH's top 10 MAC players and the Buffalo sleeper case. Projected starters and additional rotation options are included for every current MAC team.

The road to Cleveland

Conference play begins December 2 and the regular season ends March 5. The eight-team tournament runs March 10-13 at Rocket Arena in Cleveland. Seeds one and two enter the semifinals, while seeds three and four enter the quarterfinals. The March 13 championship awards the league's automatic NCAA bid.

That format makes the top-two chase especially valuable. Miami and Akron are our starting choices, but Ohio and Kent State have enough experienced creation to challenge that order. Buffalo's climb, the new coaching staffs and the race for the final tournament places should keep the middle of the standings competitive deep into the season.

Sources and projection notes

Research cutoff: October 14, 2026. Primary preseason reference: the user-supplied Blue Ribbon 2026-27 Yearbook, Mid-American chapter, printed pages 257-270. The Torvik comparison is transcribed from the user-supplied 2027 MAC screenshot received October 14; it is a snapshot rather than a live data feed. Current official rosters and player biographies supersede the yearbook where they differ. Lineups and records are MMH judgments. Club, Division II, NAIA and junior-college production is identified as such in the rotation data; none is presented as a Division I forecast.

Official references: MAC current teams, 2025-26 MAC statistics, conference schedule announcement, 2027 tournament format, and Buffalo's Starling signing.