#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Georgetown at UConn • FINAL13-18 • 34-5Final Score: Georgetown 75-79 UConn
UConn 93.0%Georgetown 7.0%
59-77136.2UConn -17.4Auburn at Arkansas • FINAL21-16 • 28-9Final Score: Auburn 75-88 Arkansas
Arkansas 74.2%Auburn 25.8%
82-90172.6Arkansas -8.4South Carolina at Alabama • FINAL13-19 • 24-10Final Score: South Carolina 75-89 Alabama
Alabama 94.7%South Carolina 5.3%
75-93167.6Alabama -18.2Gonzaga at Santa Clara • FINAL31-4 • 26-9Final Score: Gonzaga 94-86 Santa Clara
Gonzaga 68.4%Santa Clara 31.6%
80-76155.9Gonzaga -4.3Indiana at Illinois • FINAL18-14 • 28-9Final Score: Indiana 51-71 Illinois
Illinois 92.7%Indiana 7.3%
69-85153.4Illinois -16.3Texas at Missouri • FINAL21-15 • 20-13Final Score: Texas 85-68 Missouri
Missouri 50.5%Texas 49.5%
80-81160.5Missouri -1.0Denver at Omaha • FINAL15-17 • 16-17Final Score: Denver 76-83 Omaha
Denver 50.1%Omaha 49.9%
81-83163.3Omaha -1.8Marshall at Georgia Southern • FINAL19-13 • 21-16Final Score: Marshall 87-101 Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern 54.6%Marshall 45.4%
81-83164.2Georgia Southern -1.6Tulsa at Wichita State • FINAL30-8 • 24-12Final Score: Tulsa 77-81 Wichita State
Wichita State 58.2%Tulsa 41.8%
77-80156.6Wichita State -2.4UC Santa Barbara at Cal Poly • FINAL18-14 • 14-19Final Score: UC Santa Barbara 79-89 Cal Poly
UC Santa Barbara 50.9%Cal Poly 49.1%
82-81162.8UC Santa Barbara -0.6Memphis at Utah State • FINAL13-19 • 29-7Final Score: Memphis 75-99 Utah State
Utah State 92.4%Memphis 7.6%
69-86155.0Utah State -16.8St. Thomas-Minnesota at Kansas City • FINAL24-10 • 4-27Final Score: St. Thomas-Minnesota 104-64 Kansas City
St. Thomas-Minnesota 96.4%Kansas City 3.6%
88-68156.2St. Thomas-Minnesota -20.4South Dakota State at Oral Roberts • FINAL14-18 • 10-23Final Score: South Dakota State 87-69 Oral Roberts
South Dakota State 58.9%Oral Roberts 41.1%
77-75151.5South Dakota State -2.0Virginia at Ohio State • FINAL30-6 • 21-13Final Score: Virginia 70-66 Ohio State
Ohio State 50.5%Virginia 49.5%
76-76152.8Ohio State -0.2Hawai'i at Cal State Northridge • FINAL24-9 • 20-14Final Score: Hawai'i 60-84 Cal State Northridge
Cal State Northridge 50.5%Hawai'i 49.5%
80-79159.1Hawai'i -0.4Sacramento State at Northern Arizona • FINAL10-21 • 10-22Final Score: Sacramento State 74-79 Northern Arizona
Sacramento State 54.3%Northern Arizona 45.7%
78-79156.7Northern Arizona -0.5Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky • FINAL17-15 • 18-14Final Score: Middle Tennessee 80-82 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky 70.2%Middle Tennessee 29.8%
74-80154.2Western Kentucky -6.0Troy at Southern Miss • FINAL22-12 • 19-16Final Score: Troy 65-69 Southern Miss
Southern Miss 51.0%Troy 49.0%
76-77152.6Southern Miss -0.5Montana State at Montana • FINAL18-14 • 18-16Final Score: Montana State 82-71 Montana
Montana State 60.0%Montana 40.0%
77-76152.9Montana State -1.2California Baptist at Utah Tech • FINAL25-9 • 19-15Final Score: California Baptist 65-70 Utah Tech
California Baptist 67.2%Utah Tech 32.8%
75-72146.9California Baptist -3.2Minnesota at Washington • FINAL15-18 • 16-17Final Score: Minnesota 57-69 Washington
Washington 77.6%Minnesota 22.4%
68-77144.8Washington -8.6Nevada at San Diego State • FINAL24-13 • 22-10Final Score: Nevada 57-71 San Diego State
San Diego State 63.2%Nevada 36.8%
72-78149.6San Diego State -5.5Cal State Fullerton at UC Irvine • FINAL18-16 • 23-12Final Score: Cal State Fullerton 65-86 UC Irvine
UC Irvine 81.9%Cal State Fullerton 18.1%
74-85158.5UC Irvine -11.5UC Riverside at UC San Diego • FINAL10-22 • 23-11Final Score: UC Riverside 66-72 UC San Diego
UC San Diego 86.6%UC Riverside 13.4%
68-82149.9UC San Diego -13.4Saint Mary's at Pacific • FINAL27-6 • 18-15Final Score: Saint Mary's 72-61 Pacific
Saint Mary's 86.3%Pacific 13.7%
76-66141.8Saint Mary's -9.7Indiana State at Valparaiso • FINAL11-21 • 18-15Final Score: Indiana State 75-76 Valparaiso
Valparaiso 75.4%Indiana State 24.6%
70-77146.7Valparaiso -7.3Drake at Northern Iowa • FINAL14-20 • 23-13Final Score: Drake 62-86 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa 89.4%Drake 10.6%
63-77140.1Northern Iowa -13.9Bradley at Southern Illinois • FINAL21-13 • 16-16Final Score: Bradley 70-60 Southern Illinois
Southern Illinois 63.0%Bradley 37.0%
72-76147.9Southern Illinois -4.3Belmont at Murray State • FINAL26-6 • 20-13Final Score: Belmont 87-70 Murray State
Belmont 60.0%Murray State 40.0%
83-81164.8Belmont -2.1UTSA at Charlotte • FINAL5-25 • 17-17Final Score: UTSA 88-79 Charlotte
Charlotte 93.1%UTSA 6.9%
67-84150.9Charlotte -17.1Utah at Cincinnati • FINAL10-22 • 18-15Final Score: Utah 65-69 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 92.2%Utah 7.8%
66-82148.4Cincinnati -16.5Maryland at Rutgers • FINAL12-20 • 13-20Final Score: Maryland 57-68 Rutgers
Rutgers 67.0%Maryland 33.0%
71-76146.6Rutgers -5.0Holy Cross at Loyola Maryland • FINAL11-22 • 12-20Final Score: Holy Cross 73-83 Loyola Maryland
Loyola Maryland 69.7%Holy Cross 30.3%
71-77148.1Loyola Maryland -6.3Youngstown State at Detroit Mercy • FINAL14-17 • 17-15Final Score: Youngstown State 70-76 Detroit Mercy
Detroit Mercy 66.5%Youngstown State 33.5%
74-78152.2Detroit Mercy -4.3Manhattan at Canisius • FINAL12-20 • 10-21Final Score: Manhattan 69-65 Canisius
Manhattan 52.3%Canisius 47.7%
71-72143.3Canisius -1.1North Texas at Temple • FINAL19-14 • 16-16Final Score: North Texas 65-62 Temple
Temple 59.0%North Texas 41.0%
69-72141.6Temple -3.0South Florida at Florida Atlantic • FINAL25-9 • 18-15Final Score: South Florida 83-81 Florida Atlantic
South Florida 80.3%Florida Atlantic 19.7%
85-77162.0South Florida -7.5Tulane at UAB • FINAL18-15 • 20-12Final Score: Tulane 55-54 UAB
UAB 87.1%Tulane 12.9%
70-83152.6UAB -13.2Rider at Sacred Heart • FINAL4-25 • 14-19Final Score: Rider 75-86 Sacred Heart
Sacred Heart 87.0%Rider 13.0%
67-80146.4Sacred Heart -13.4Fairfield at Saint Peter's • FINAL21-13 • 17-12Final Score: Fairfield 74-83 Saint Peter's
Saint Peter's 55.5%Fairfield 44.5%
70-73142.6Saint Peter's -2.6Merrimack at Quinnipiac • FINAL23-11 • 19-13Final Score: Merrimack 56-49 Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac 55.2%Merrimack 44.8%
69-72141.0Quinnipiac -3.0Oakland at Robert Morris • FINAL16-16 • 22-11Final Score: Oakland 69-93 Robert Morris
Robert Morris 71.5%Oakland 28.5%
77-84160.5Robert Morris -7.1Wright State at Cleveland State • FINAL23-12 • 11-22Final Score: Wright State 102-90 Cleveland State
Wright State 84.5%Cleveland State 15.5%
87-77164.4Wright State -10.3IU Indianapolis at Purdue Fort Wayne • FINAL7-25 • 17-15Final Score: IU Indianapolis 78-83 Purdue Fort Wayne
Purdue Fort Wayne 72.7%IU Indianapolis 27.3%
80-88168.7Purdue Fort Wayne -7.9Iona at Niagara • FINAL18-14 • 8-22Final Score: Iona 68-70 Niagara
Iona 67.4%Niagara 32.6%
72-69141.0Iona -3.9Siena at Marist • FINAL23-12 • 19-12Final Score: Siena 67-63 Marist
Marist 54.9%Siena 45.1%
65-68133.2Marist -3.0Illinois State at UIC • FINAL23-13 • 19-16Final Score: Illinois State 56-83 UIC
UIC 68.5%Illinois State 31.5%
70-75145.2UIC -4.9Green Bay at Milwaukee • FINAL18-15 • 12-20Final Score: Green Bay 72-75 Milwaukee
Green Bay 53.1%Milwaukee 46.9%
78-78155.6Milwaukee -0.3Davidson at Dayton • FINAL20-14 • 25-12Final Score: Davidson 59-70 Dayton
Dayton 78.2%Davidson 21.8%
67-75141.7Dayton -8.3Eastern Kentucky at North Alabama • FINAL11-21 • 9-21Final Score: Eastern Kentucky 78-84 North Alabama
Eastern Kentucky 65.2%North Alabama 34.8%
80-77157.7Eastern Kentucky -3.1Charleston at Campbell • FINAL21-11 • 15-18Final Score: Charleston 62-57 Campbell
Campbell 55.2%Charleston 44.8%
77-79155.4Campbell -2.0San Francisco at San Diego • FINAL17-16 • 12-21Final Score: San Francisco 92-79 San Diego
San Francisco 65.4%San Diego 34.6%
77-75152.1San Francisco -2.8Seton Hall at Butler • FINAL21-12 • 16-16Final Score: Seton Hall 63-56 Butler
Butler 50.5%Seton Hall 49.5%
73-74147.2Butler -0.5THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.