#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Memphis at South Florida • FINAL13-19 • 25-9Final Score: Memphis 66-87 South Florida
South Florida 94.5%Memphis 5.5%
71-90161.2South Florida -18.8Alabama A&M at Florida A&M • FINAL18-15 • 14-16Final Score: Alabama A&M 63-61 Florida A&M
Florida A&M 54.6%Alabama A&M 45.4%
72-73145.1Florida A&M -1.7Alabama State at Bethune-Cookman • FINAL10-22 • 17-15Final Score: Alabama State 71-82 Bethune-Cookman
Bethune-Cookman 76.9%Alabama State 23.1%
73-81153.7Bethune-Cookman -8.1Longwood at Presbyterian • FINAL16-16 • 15-18Final Score: Longwood 65-72 Presbyterian
Presbyterian 61.4%Longwood 38.6%
73-76149.7Presbyterian -3.1Gardner-Webb at Radford • FINAL4-29 • 16-16Final Score: Gardner-Webb 70-82 Radford
Radford 94.7%Gardner-Webb 5.3%
70-91160.6Radford -20.6IU Indianapolis at Wright State • FINAL7-25 • 23-12Final Score: IU Indianapolis 73-85 Wright State
Wright State 92.4%IU Indianapolis 7.6%
76-93168.2Wright State -17.0Long Island University at Saint Francis • FINAL24-11 • 7-24Final Score: Long Island University 91-89 Saint Francis
Long Island University 80.9%Saint Francis 19.1%
80-71150.7Long Island University -8.5Fairleigh Dickinson at Chicago State • FINAL11-21 • 7-25Final Score: Fairleigh Dickinson 60-59 Chicago State
Chicago State 56.6%Fairleigh Dickinson 43.4%
69-70139.0Chicago State -1.2UAlbany at NJIT • FINAL11-20 • 16-17Final Score: UAlbany 81-63 NJIT
NJIT 53.3%UAlbany 46.7%
69-70139.4NJIT -1.2Monmouth at UNC Wilmington • FINAL19-15 • 27-7Final Score: Monmouth 69-79 UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington 78.4%Monmouth 21.6%
68-77144.5UNC Wilmington -9.4Drexel at Northeastern • FINAL17-16 • 8-23Final Score: Drexel 70-61 Northeastern
Drexel 52.9%Northeastern 47.1%
74-73146.2Drexel -0.9William & Mary at Campbell • FINAL20-12 • 15-18Final Score: William & Mary 83-84 Campbell
Campbell 55.2%William & Mary 44.8%
81-82163.0Campbell -1.2Charleston at North Carolina A&T • FINAL21-11 • 11-19Final Score: Charleston 74-61 North Carolina A&T
Charleston 69.6%North Carolina A&T 30.4%
78-75153.1Charleston -3.9Samford at The Citadel • FINAL18-14 • 11-22Final Score: Samford 78-75 The Citadel
Samford 82.5%The Citadel 17.5%
81-72153.3Samford -8.3Chattanooga at Mercer • FINAL13-19 • 19-13Final Score: Chattanooga 94-90 Mercer
Mercer 80.6%Chattanooga 19.4%
74-84158.3Mercer -10.3Cal Poly at Hawai'i • FINAL14-19 • 24-9Final Score: Cal Poly 86-75 Hawai'i
Hawai'i 80.0%Cal Poly 20.0%
75-87162.7Hawai'i -11.9Texas State at South Alabama • FINAL19-13 • 21-12Final Score: Texas State 90-82 South Alabama
South Alabama 67.5%Texas State 32.5%
70-75145.3South Alabama -5.4Arkansas State at Louisiana • FINAL20-12 • 11-22Final Score: Arkansas State 79-62 Louisiana
Arkansas State 83.5%Louisiana 16.5%
79-69148.3Arkansas State -9.3Georgia Southern at Georgia State • FINAL21-16 • 10-22Final Score: Georgia Southern 64-66 Georgia State
Georgia Southern 65.2%Georgia State 34.8%
79-76155.4Georgia Southern -2.4Montana State at Weber State • FINAL18-14 • 16-16Final Score: Montana State 79-82 Weber State
Weber State 53.3%Montana State 46.7%
78-79156.9Weber State -1.6Eastern Washington at Sacramento State • FINAL14-19 • 10-21Final Score: Eastern Washington 102-94 Sacramento State
Eastern Washington 62.9%Sacramento State 37.1%
82-80162.5Eastern Washington -1.7Austin Peay at North Florida • FINAL22-9 • 7-25Final Score: Austin Peay 77-76 North Florida
Austin Peay 82.5%North Florida 17.5%
88-78166.0Austin Peay -10.5SIU Edwardsville at Tennessee Tech • FINAL19-13 • 13-18Final Score: SIU Edwardsville 52-62 Tennessee Tech
SIU Edwardsville 50.4%Tennessee Tech 49.6%
71-71141.6SIU Edwardsville -0.4Morehead State at Eastern Illinois • FINAL20-13 • 13-20Final Score: Morehead State 73-70 Eastern Illinois
Morehead State 57.8%Eastern Illinois 42.2%
72-72144.2Morehead State -0.4Southern Utah at Tarleton State • FINAL10-22 • 14-18Final Score: Southern Utah 74-78 Tarleton State
Tarleton State 72.2%Southern Utah 27.8%
73-81154.3Tarleton State -7.8UNC Asheville at High Point • FINAL15-17 • 31-5Final Score: UNC Asheville 48-74 High Point
High Point 95.0%UNC Asheville 5.0%
68-88156.4High Point -20.5Wagner at Mercyhurst • FINAL14-17 • 17-17Final Score: Wagner 83-80 Mercyhurst
Mercyhurst 69.0%Wagner 31.0%
67-73139.4Mercyhurst -6.1Stonehill at New Haven • FINAL12-21 • 14-17Final Score: Stonehill 51-64 New Haven
New Haven 66.0%Stonehill 34.0%
63-68131.0New Haven -4.7Le Moyne at Central Connecticut • FINAL15-17 • 18-12Final Score: Le Moyne 77-78 Central Connecticut
Central Connecticut 65.5%Le Moyne 34.5%
71-76146.4Central Connecticut -5.4Kansas City at North Dakota • FINAL4-27 • 18-17Final Score: Kansas City 70-85 North Dakota
North Dakota 92.5%Kansas City 7.5%
70-87156.5North Dakota -17.2Hampton at Hofstra • FINAL13-19 • 24-11Final Score: Hampton 43-79 Hofstra
Hofstra 90.9%Hampton 9.1%
63-78141.4Hofstra -15.0Central Arkansas at Stetson • FINAL22-12 • 12-21Final Score: Central Arkansas 88-76 Stetson
Central Arkansas 74.1%Stetson 25.9%
82-75157.5Central Arkansas -6.8UT Martin at Little Rock • FINAL22-11 • 12-20Final Score: UT Martin 65-67 Little Rock
UT Martin 53.4%Little Rock 46.6%
70-68138.0UT Martin -1.8California Baptist at Utah Valley • FINAL25-9 • 25-9Final Score: California Baptist 46-65 Utah Valley
Utah Valley 64.5%California Baptist 35.5%
70-76145.1Utah Valley -6.0Utah Tech at UT Arlington • FINAL19-15 • 18-14Final Score: Utah Tech 50-63 UT Arlington
UT Arlington 68.3%Utah Tech 31.7%
69-75144.6UT Arlington -6.1Prairie View A&M at Mississippi Valley State • FINAL19-18 • 3-30Final Score: Prairie View A&M 72-62 Mississippi Valley State
Prairie View A&M 89.6%Mississippi Valley State 10.4%
84-70153.2Prairie View A&M -14.0Southern Indiana at Western Illinois • FINAL7-22 • 5-26Final Score: Southern Indiana 77-70 Western Illinois
Southern Indiana 68.2%Western Illinois 31.8%
71-67138.9Southern Indiana -4.1Lindenwood at Tennessee State • FINAL18-15 • 23-10Final Score: Lindenwood 80-89 Tennessee State
Tennessee State 81.3%Lindenwood 18.7%
73-82155.2Tennessee State -8.9Cal State Northridge at UC Santa Barbara • FINAL20-14 • 18-14Final Score: Cal State Northridge 85-83 UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Barbara 66.0%Cal State Northridge 34.0%
77-82159.3UC Santa Barbara -5.5South Dakota at Denver • FINAL16-16 • 15-17Final Score: South Dakota 70-90 Denver
Denver 75.0%South Dakota 25.0%
81-88168.1Denver -7.0Montana at Idaho State • FINAL18-16 • 13-20Final Score: Montana 69-73 Idaho State
Idaho State 63.8%Montana 36.2%
75-78153.7Idaho State -3.3Cal State Bakersfield at UC Riverside • FINAL8-24 • 10-22Final Score: Cal State Bakersfield 65-93 UC Riverside
UC Riverside 81.9%Cal State Bakersfield 18.1%
73-83155.8UC Riverside -10.3UC Davis at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL19-14 • 18-16Final Score: UC Davis 92-93 Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton 65.0%UC Davis 35.0%
79-83162.8Cal State Fullerton -4.2UC Irvine at Long Beach State • FINAL23-12 • 10-22Final Score: UC Irvine 69-58 Long Beach State
UC Irvine 80.5%Long Beach State 19.5%
80-71151.2UC Irvine -8.7Idaho at Portland State • FINAL21-15 • 20-11Final Score: Idaho 67-77 Portland State
Portland State 54.4%Idaho 45.6%
74-77150.4Portland State -2.9Tulane at North Texas • FINAL18-15 • 19-14Final Score: Tulane 77-71 North Texas
North Texas 80.0%Tulane 20.0%
67-77143.4North Texas -10.2Texas Southern at Arkansas-Pine Bluff • FINAL12-17 • 13-19Final Score: Texas Southern 83-64 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 56.8%Texas Southern 43.2%
77-79155.4Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.3Akron at Ball State • FINAL29-6 • 12-19Final Score: Akron 78-65 Ball State
Akron 90.2%Ball State 9.8%
82-69151.0Akron -13.4THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.