#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Duke at Notre Dame • FINAL35-3 • 13-17Final Score: Duke 100-56 Notre Dame
Duke 95.5%Notre Dame 4.5%
84-66149.4Duke -18.2Minnesota at Michigan • FINAL15-18 • 36-3Final Score: Minnesota 67-77 Michigan
Michigan 98.0%Minnesota 2.0%
62-87149.0Michigan -25.7Auburn at Oklahoma • FINAL21-16 • 21-16Final Score: Auburn 79-91 Oklahoma
Oklahoma 56.3%Auburn 43.7%
81-84165.8Oklahoma -2.9Kentucky at South Carolina • FINAL22-14 • 13-19Final Score: Kentucky 72-63 South Carolina
Kentucky 77.6%South Carolina 22.4%
81-75155.9Kentucky -6.7Cincinnati at Texas Tech • FINAL18-15 • 23-11Final Score: Cincinnati 68-80 Texas Tech
Texas Tech 72.9%Cincinnati 27.1%
71-78148.3Texas Tech -7.0Arizona at Baylor • FINAL36-3 • 16-17Final Score: Arizona 87-80 Baylor
Arizona 86.2%Baylor 13.8%
86-75160.3Arizona -10.8Iowa State at Utah • FINAL28-8 • 10-22Final Score: Iowa State 75-59 Utah
Iowa State 95.5%Utah 4.5%
86-67152.4Iowa State -18.7Tennessee at Missouri • FINAL25-12 • 20-13Final Score: Tennessee 69-73 Missouri
Tennessee 68.2%Missouri 31.8%
79-75153.9Tennessee -4.0UCF at BYU • FINAL21-12 • 23-12Final Score: UCF 97-84 BYU
BYU 78.0%UCF 22.0%
77-86163.2BYU -9.3USC at UCLA • FINAL18-14 • 24-12Final Score: USC 62-81 UCLA
UCLA 89.5%USC 10.5%
71-84155.0UCLA -13.3Fresno State at Colorado State • FINAL13-19 • 21-13Final Score: Fresno State 70-74 Colorado State
Colorado State 80.7%Fresno State 19.3%
69-78147.6Colorado State -9.2San José State at Air Force • FINAL9-24 • 3-29Final Score: San José State 86-80 Air Force
San José State 83.3%Air Force 16.7%
78-69147.0San José State -8.9Saint Louis at Dayton • FINAL29-6 • 25-12Final Score: Saint Louis 62-77 Dayton
Saint Louis 56.2%Dayton 43.8%
78-75152.6Saint Louis -2.9West Virginia at Oklahoma State • FINAL21-14 • 20-15Final Score: West Virginia 84-91 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State 54.4%West Virginia 45.6%
76-78153.7Oklahoma State -1.4Northwestern at Indiana • FINAL15-19 • 18-14Final Score: Northwestern 72-68 Indiana
Indiana 69.4%Northwestern 30.6%
71-78149.3Indiana -7.0Marquette at Georgetown • FINAL12-20 • 13-18Final Score: Marquette 76-60 Georgetown
Georgetown 60.3%Marquette 39.7%
69-73141.7Georgetown -3.9Wake Forest at Boston College • FINAL18-17 • 11-20Final Score: Wake Forest 67-68 Boston College
Wake Forest 70.8%Boston College 29.2%
76-72148.1Wake Forest -3.9NC State at Virginia • FINAL20-14 • 30-6Final Score: NC State 61-90 Virginia
Virginia 81.6%NC State 18.4%
74-84157.3Virginia -10.0Western Michigan at Bowling Green • FINAL10-21 • 18-14Final Score: Western Michigan 88-79 Bowling Green
Bowling Green 86.2%Western Michigan 13.8%
71-85156.4Bowling Green -14.3Northern Illinois at Toledo • FINAL9-21 • 19-15Final Score: Northern Illinois 69-79 Toledo
Toledo 97.8%Northern Illinois 2.2%
66-89155.0Toledo -23.3Massachusetts at Ball State • FINAL17-16 • 12-19Final Score: Massachusetts 73-74 Ball State
Massachusetts 65.2%Ball State 34.8%
76-73148.7Massachusetts -2.8Central Michigan at Kent State • FINAL10-21 • 24-10Final Score: Central Michigan 81-83 Kent State
Kent State 84.6%Central Michigan 15.4%
74-87160.8Kent State -12.3Buffalo at Akron • FINAL17-15 • 29-6Final Score: Buffalo 85-99 Akron
Akron 90.9%Buffalo 9.1%
73-89162.0Akron -16.2Louisiana at Troy • FINAL11-22 • 22-12Final Score: Louisiana 59-78 Troy
Troy 90.3%Louisiana 9.7%
64-80143.6Troy -15.6Old Dominion at Marshall • FINAL12-21 • 19-13Final Score: Old Dominion 88-97 Marshall
Marshall 74.0%Old Dominion 26.0%
76-84160.2Marshall -8.2Coastal Carolina at Georgia State • FINAL19-13 • 10-22Final Score: Coastal Carolina 76-71 Georgia State
Coastal Carolina 59.2%Georgia State 40.8%
74-72146.4Coastal Carolina -1.5Southern Indiana at Morehead State • FINAL7-22 • 20-13Final Score: Southern Indiana 63-64 Morehead State
Morehead State 83.5%Southern Indiana 16.5%
67-77143.9Morehead State -10.3Bradley at UIC • FINAL21-13 • 19-16Final Score: Bradley 86-93 UIC
UIC 68.3%Bradley 31.7%
72-78150.1UIC -5.6Southern Miss at Arkansas State • FINAL19-16 • 20-12Final Score: Southern Miss 84-89 Arkansas State
Arkansas State 79.9%Southern Miss 20.1%
74-83157.3Arkansas State -9.7Arizona State at TCU • FINAL17-16 • 23-12Final Score: Arizona State 78-90 TCU
TCU 81.4%Arizona State 18.6%
72-83154.5TCU -10.7Wyoming at Boise State • FINAL18-15 • 20-12Final Score: Wyoming 62-72 Boise State
Boise State 70.8%Wyoming 29.2%
73-80153.0Boise State -6.2Miami at Florida State • FINAL26-9 • 18-15Final Score: Miami 83-73 Florida State
Miami 56.2%Florida State 43.8%
80-79158.9Miami -1.7New Mexico at Nevada • FINAL26-11 • 24-13Final Score: New Mexico 60-67 Nevada
Nevada 51.9%New Mexico 48.1%
76-76151.8Nevada -0.2The Citadel at Furman • FINAL11-22 • 22-13Final Score: The Citadel 51-72 Furman
Furman 92.7%The Citadel 7.3%
66-83148.9Furman -17.3Bucknell at Army • FINAL10-23 • 11-21Final Score: Bucknell 75-73 Army
Army 65.3%Bucknell 34.7%
71-77147.7Army -5.3Oakland at IU Indianapolis • FINAL16-16 • 7-25Final Score: Oakland 86-74 IU Indianapolis
Oakland 72.8%IU Indianapolis 27.2%
90-85174.6Oakland -5.0Morgan State at South Carolina State • FINAL14-16 • 10-22Final Score: Morgan State 90-83 South Carolina State
Morgan State 55.9%South Carolina State 44.1%
76-75151.6Morgan State -1.4THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.