THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayMarch 5, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Purdue at Northwestern • FINAL30-9 • 15-19Final Score: Purdue 70-66 Northwestern

Purdue 81.4%Northwestern 18.6%

79-71150.4Purdue -8.1

Maryland at Wisconsin • FINAL12-20 • 24-11Final Score: Maryland 45-78 Wisconsin

Wisconsin 94.2%Maryland 5.8%

68-87154.7Wisconsin -18.5

Texas at Arkansas • FINAL21-15 • 28-9Final Score: Texas 85-105 Arkansas

Arkansas 79.7%Texas 20.3%

81-90170.8Arkansas -9.3

Baylor at Houston • FINAL16-17 • 29-7Final Score: Baylor 64-77 Houston

Houston 91.8%Baylor 8.2%

67-83150.2Houston -16.0

St. Bonaventure at George Washington • FINAL17-17 • 19-16Final Score: St. Bonaventure 82-91 George Washington

George Washington 78.4%St. Bonaventure 21.6%

73-83155.9George Washington -9.5

Duquesne at Rhode Island • FINAL18-15 • 16-16Final Score: Duquesne 52-64 Rhode Island

Rhode Island 63.2%Duquesne 36.8%

71-75146.6Rhode Island -4.2

Saint Joseph's at Davidson • FINAL24-12 • 20-14Final Score: Saint Joseph's 70-67 Davidson

Davidson 63.8%Saint Joseph's 36.2%

69-73141.7Davidson -4.5

UAB at Charlotte • FINAL20-12 • 17-17Final Score: UAB 80-74 Charlotte

UAB 58.4%Charlotte 41.6%

77-75152.7UAB -1.8

Marquette at Providence • FINAL12-20 • 15-18Final Score: Marquette 78-56 Providence

Providence 67.3%Marquette 32.7%

80-85164.5Providence -5.5

Miami at SMU • FINAL26-9 • 20-14Final Score: Miami 77-69 SMU

SMU 54.4%Miami 45.6%

80-81161.2SMU -1.6

California at Georgia Tech • FINAL22-12 • 11-20Final Score: California 76-65 Georgia Tech

California 74.5%Georgia Tech 25.5%

80-74153.7California -5.6

Ohio State at Penn State • FINAL21-13 • 12-20Final Score: Ohio State 94-62 Penn State

Ohio State 87.7%Penn State 12.3%

83-72155.2Ohio State -11.1

Loyola Chicago at Saint Louis • FINAL9-24 • 29-6Final Score: Loyola Chicago 65-79 Saint Louis

Saint Louis 97.2%Loyola Chicago 2.8%

63-89152.1Saint Louis -25.9

Rice at North Texas • FINAL13-18 • 19-14Final Score: Rice 58-62 North Texas

North Texas 78.6%Rice 21.4%

67-77143.9North Texas -9.2

Villanova at DePaul • FINAL24-9 • 16-16Final Score: Villanova 76-57 DePaul

Villanova 67.2%DePaul 32.8%

74-71144.7Villanova -3.2

Florida State at Pittsburgh • FINAL18-15 • 13-20Final Score: Florida State 75-74 Pittsburgh

Florida State 60.0%Pittsburgh 40.0%

77-76152.3Florida State -1.1

Stanford at Notre Dame • FINAL20-13 • 13-17Final Score: Stanford 86-78 Notre Dame

Stanford 63.4%Notre Dame 36.6%

77-75151.7Stanford -1.9

Colorado State at New Mexico • FINAL21-13 • 26-11Final Score: Colorado State 82-74 New Mexico

New Mexico 80.7%Colorado State 19.3%

70-81151.5New Mexico -10.8

USC at Washington • FINAL18-14 • 16-17Final Score: USC 72-91 Washington

Washington 81.6%USC 18.4%

73-83156.5Washington -9.6

South Carolina State at North Carolina Central • FINAL10-22 • 14-18Final Score: South Carolina State 80-64 North Carolina Central

North Carolina Central 75.0%South Carolina State 25.0%

69-78147.9North Carolina Central -8.9

Stonehill at Le Moyne • FINAL12-21 • 15-17Final Score: Stonehill 81-71 Le Moyne

Le Moyne 75.0%Stonehill 25.0%

66-74140.2Le Moyne -7.2

Fairleigh Dickinson at Mercyhurst • FINAL11-21 • 17-17Final Score: Fairleigh Dickinson 61-70 Mercyhurst

Mercyhurst 78.8%Fairleigh Dickinson 21.2%

63-73135.8Mercyhurst -9.3

Wagner at Central Connecticut • FINAL14-17 • 18-12Final Score: Wagner 70-60 Central Connecticut

Central Connecticut 66.3%Wagner 33.7%

70-75144.5Central Connecticut -5.4

Chicago State at Long Island University • FINAL7-25 • 24-11Final Score: Chicago State 75-79 Long Island University

Long Island University 88.9%Chicago State 11.1%

65-79144.2Long Island University -14.8

Eastern Illinois at SIU Edwardsville • FINAL13-20 • 19-13Final Score: Eastern Illinois 77-71 SIU Edwardsville

SIU Edwardsville 81.6%Eastern Illinois 18.4%

62-73135.3SIU Edwardsville -11.0

Northern Kentucky at Oakland • FINAL20-14 • 16-16Final Score: Northern Kentucky 85-84 Oakland

Oakland 59.0%Northern Kentucky 41.0%

83-85167.5Oakland -2.2

Milwaukee at Detroit Mercy • FINAL12-20 • 17-15Final Score: Milwaukee 63-84 Detroit Mercy

Detroit Mercy 70.4%Milwaukee 29.6%

76-83158.4Detroit Mercy -6.7

Youngstown State at Robert Morris • FINAL14-17 • 22-11Final Score: Youngstown State 53-68 Robert Morris

Robert Morris 82.9%Youngstown State 17.1%

70-80149.1Robert Morris -10.0

Cleveland State at Wright State • FINAL11-22 • 23-12Final Score: Cleveland State 61-90 Wright State

Wright State 93.8%Cleveland State 6.2%

73-91164.4Wright State -18.5

Gardner-Webb at South Carolina Upstate • FINAL4-29 • 13-19Final Score: Gardner-Webb 65-64 South Carolina Upstate

South Carolina Upstate 91.7%Gardner-Webb 8.3%

67-86153.1South Carolina Upstate -18.1

North Florida at West Georgia • FINAL7-25 • 15-17Final Score: North Florida 85-93 West Georgia

West Georgia 79.0%North Florida 21.0%

79-88166.9West Georgia -9.7

Kansas City at Oral Roberts • FINAL4-27 • 10-23Final Score: Kansas City 62-84 Oral Roberts

Oral Roberts 90.9%Kansas City 9.1%

70-85154.6Oral Roberts -15.3

Old Dominion at Georgia Southern • FINAL12-21 • 21-16Final Score: Old Dominion 84-88 Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern 67.3%Old Dominion 32.7%

78-83161.0Georgia Southern -5.7

Little Rock at Lindenwood • FINAL12-20 • 18-15Final Score: Little Rock 62-72 Lindenwood

Lindenwood 69.4%Little Rock 30.6%

71-78149.1Lindenwood -7.8

Drake at Southern Illinois • FINAL14-20 • 16-16Final Score: Drake 67-63 Southern Illinois

Southern Illinois 80.6%Drake 19.4%

69-79147.4Southern Illinois -9.6

James Madison at Southern Miss • FINAL18-15 • 19-16Final Score: James Madison 80-86 Southern Miss

Southern Miss 56.0%James Madison 44.0%

74-77150.2Southern Miss -3.0

Sacred Heart at Iona • FINAL14-19 • 18-14Final Score: Sacred Heart 91-80 Iona

Iona 75.0%Sacred Heart 25.0%

72-80151.3Iona -7.7

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.