#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Michigan at Iowa • FINAL36-3 • 24-13Final Score: Michigan 71-68 Iowa
Michigan 79.4%Iowa 20.6%
80-71151.1Michigan -8.3Rutgers at Michigan State • FINAL13-20 • 27-8Final Score: Rutgers 87-91 Michigan State
Michigan State 96.0%Rutgers 4.0%
63-85147.6Michigan State -21.6Howard at Norfolk State • FINAL24-11 • 15-17Final Score: Howard 84-76 Norfolk State
Howard 72.3%Norfolk State 27.7%
78-73150.2Howard -4.9Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Alcorn State • FINAL13-19 • 9-23Final Score: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 83-48 Alcorn State
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 63.7%Alcorn State 36.3%
79-76155.3Arkansas-Pine Bluff -3.3Bethune-Cookman at Florida A&M • FINAL17-15 • 14-16Final Score: Bethune-Cookman 77-81 Florida A&M
Bethune-Cookman 50.6%Florida A&M 49.4%
75-75149.9Florida A&M -0.8Prairie View A&M at Texas Southern • FINAL19-18 • 12-17Final Score: Prairie View A&M 70-59 Texas Southern
Texas Southern 60.3%Prairie View A&M 39.7%
75-78153.2Texas Southern -3.0Mississippi Valley State at Jackson State • FINAL3-30 • 12-21Final Score: Mississippi Valley State 77-85 Jackson State
Jackson State 87.6%Mississippi Valley State 12.4%
70-83152.8Jackson State -12.7Tulane at Temple • FINAL18-15 • 16-16Final Score: Tulane 60-89 Temple
Temple 77.6%Tulane 22.4%
69-78147.4Temple -9.0Tulsa at East Carolina • FINAL30-8 • 11-20Final Score: Tulsa 93-66 East Carolina
Tulsa 85.5%East Carolina 14.5%
84-73156.7Tulsa -11.5Delaware State at Maryland Eastern Shore • FINAL8-22 • 9-23Final Score: Delaware State 57-56 Maryland Eastern Shore
Maryland Eastern Shore 73.3%Delaware State 26.7%
61-68129.0Maryland Eastern Shore -7.0Middle Tennessee at Florida International • FINAL17-15 • 15-17Final Score: Middle Tennessee 73-67 Florida International
Florida International 56.8%Middle Tennessee 43.2%
77-80156.2Florida International -3.0Louisiana Tech at Liberty • FINAL20-14 • 26-8Final Score: Louisiana Tech 76-71 Liberty
Liberty 70.8%Louisiana Tech 29.2%
68-74141.6Liberty -6.1Sam Houston at Delaware • FINAL22-12 • 10-21Final Score: Sam Houston 80-83 Delaware
Sam Houston 78.9%Delaware 21.1%
80-72151.3Sam Houston -8.0Grambling at Alabama State • FINAL14-19 • 10-22Final Score: Grambling 65-63 Alabama State
Alabama State 53.3%Grambling 46.7%
73-74146.3Alabama State -0.8Coppin State at Morgan State • FINAL7-24 • 14-16Final Score: Coppin State 66-70 Morgan State
Morgan State 84.6%Coppin State 15.4%
70-82151.6Morgan State -12.6UT Arlington at Tarleton State • FINAL18-14 • 14-18Final Score: UT Arlington 65-60 Tarleton State
UT Arlington 51.2%Tarleton State 48.8%
71-71142.3Tarleton State -0.7Western Kentucky at Missouri State • FINAL18-14 • 16-18Final Score: Western Kentucky 74-87 Missouri State
Missouri State 50.2%Western Kentucky 49.8%
77-78154.6Missouri State -1.0Southern at Alabama A&M • FINAL17-17 • 18-15Final Score: Southern 88-85 Alabama A&M
Alabama A&M 56.6%Southern 43.4%
76-78153.3Alabama A&M -2.3Utah Valley at Southern Utah • FINAL25-9 • 10-22Final Score: Utah Valley 92-88 Southern Utah
Utah Valley 82.5%Southern Utah 17.5%
82-72154.9Utah Valley -10.1South Florida at Memphis • FINAL25-9 • 13-19Final Score: South Florida 96-89 Memphis
South Florida 86.2%Memphis 13.8%
86-75161.2South Florida -10.6Kennesaw State at UTEP • FINAL21-14 • 11-20Final Score: Kennesaw State 71-78 UTEP
Kennesaw State 67.9%UTEP 32.1%
78-74152.3Kennesaw State -4.3Jacksonville State at New Mexico State • FINAL15-17 • 16-16Final Score: Jacksonville State 75-77 New Mexico State
New Mexico State 62.5%Jacksonville State 37.5%
70-74144.6New Mexico State -4.1Cal State Northridge at Cal State Bakersfield • FINAL20-14 • 8-24Final Score: Cal State Northridge 86-84 Cal State Bakersfield
Cal State Northridge 81.4%Cal State Bakersfield 18.6%
85-77162.4Cal State Northridge -8.6UC Davis at Long Beach State • FINAL19-14 • 10-22Final Score: UC Davis 76-70 Long Beach State
UC Davis 57.5%Long Beach State 42.5%
78-77155.4UC Davis -1.3Cal Poly at UC Irvine • FINAL14-19 • 23-12Final Score: Cal Poly 85-107 UC Irvine
UC Irvine 86.2%Cal Poly 13.8%
73-87160.0UC Irvine -14.0UC San Diego at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL23-11 • 18-16Final Score: UC San Diego 71-75 Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton 51.6%UC San Diego 48.4%
79-80158.5Cal State Fullerton -0.6Abilene Christian at California Baptist • FINAL14-19 • 25-9Final Score: Abilene Christian 48-87 California Baptist
California Baptist 90.7%Abilene Christian 9.3%
63-78141.4California Baptist -14.9UC Riverside at Hawai'i • FINAL10-22 • 24-9Final Score: UC Riverside 74-93 Hawai'i
Hawai'i 87.9%UC Riverside 12.1%
69-84152.7Hawai'i -15.1Northern Illinois at Akron • FINAL9-21 • 29-6Final Score: Northern Illinois 55-94 Akron
Akron 99.0%Northern Illinois 1.0%
64-94157.6Akron -29.6Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan • FINAL18-14 • 10-21Final Score: Bowling Green 77-69 Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green 67.9%Eastern Michigan 32.1%
78-73150.2Bowling Green -5.1Holy Cross at Lehigh • FINAL11-22 • 18-17Final Score: Holy Cross 66-69 Lehigh
Lehigh 78.4%Holy Cross 21.6%
68-77144.7Lehigh -8.9Loyola Maryland at Colgate • FINAL12-20 • 18-15Final Score: Loyola Maryland 77-90 Colgate
Colgate 80.2%Loyola Maryland 19.8%
72-82154.0Colgate -9.4American University at Boston University • FINAL16-16 • 16-18Final Score: American University 73-75 Boston University
Boston University 67.8%American University 32.2%
72-77149.3Boston University -4.4Bucknell at Navy • FINAL10-23 • 26-8Final Score: Bucknell 69-74 Navy
Navy 94.6%Bucknell 5.4%
61-80141.2Navy -19.7Oral Roberts at North Dakota State • FINAL10-23 • 27-8Final Score: Oral Roberts 65-76 North Dakota State
North Dakota State 91.9%Oral Roberts 8.1%
68-85152.8North Dakota State -17.2Eastern Illinois at UT Martin • FINAL13-20 • 22-11Final Score: Eastern Illinois 63-66 UT Martin
UT Martin 83.4%Eastern Illinois 16.6%
61-73133.6UT Martin -12.1Indiana State at Valparaiso • FINAL11-21 • 18-15Final Score: Indiana State 62-63 Valparaiso
Valparaiso 75.4%Indiana State 24.6%
70-77146.7Valparaiso -7.3Georgia Southern at Arkansas State • FINAL21-16 • 20-12Final Score: Georgia Southern 80-77 Arkansas State
Arkansas State 81.3%Georgia Southern 18.7%
77-88164.8Arkansas State -10.4Manhattan at Fairfield • FINAL12-20 • 21-13Final Score: Manhattan 60-71 Fairfield
Fairfield 84.7%Manhattan 15.3%
69-82151.2Fairfield -12.2Pepperdine at Portland • FINAL9-23 • 15-19Final Score: Pepperdine 68-77 Portland
Portland 73.3%Pepperdine 26.7%
74-81154.9Portland -7.4South Dakota State at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL14-18 • 24-10Final Score: South Dakota State 67-80 St. Thomas-Minnesota
St. Thomas-Minnesota 83.8%South Dakota State 16.2%
71-82153.0St. Thomas-Minnesota -11.3Lindenwood at Southeast Missouri State • FINAL18-15 • 20-13Final Score: Lindenwood 66-68 Southeast Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State 74.0%Lindenwood 26.0%
71-78149.3Southeast Missouri State -6.3Evansville at Northern Iowa • FINAL7-25 • 23-13Final Score: Evansville 59-68 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa 97.8%Evansville 2.2%
56-80136.2Northern Iowa -24.3San Diego at Loyola Marymount • FINAL12-21 • 15-17Final Score: San Diego 66-62 Loyola Marymount
Loyola Marymount 83.7%San Diego 16.3%
70-81151.1Loyola Marymount -11.2Gardner-Webb at High Point • FINAL4-29 • 31-5Final Score: Gardner-Webb 59-81 High Point
High Point 99.0%Gardner-Webb 1.0%
62-99161.0High Point -36.4Bellarmine at Central Arkansas • FINAL13-19 • 22-12Final Score: Bellarmine 73-86 Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas 82.1%Bellarmine 17.9%
76-87163.0Central Arkansas -11.6Drake at Belmont • FINAL14-20 • 26-6Final Score: Drake 100-79 Belmont
Belmont 90.2%Drake 9.8%
71-86156.4Belmont -15.1Charleston Southern at Winthrop • FINAL15-17 • 23-11Final Score: Charleston Southern 81-86 Winthrop
Winthrop 81.4%Charleston Southern 18.6%
78-88166.2Winthrop -10.2Florida Gulf Coast at Lipscomb • FINAL16-18 • 18-13Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 77-53 Lipscomb
Lipscomb 60.6%Florida Gulf Coast 39.4%
75-79154.7Lipscomb -4.1UIC at Murray State • FINAL19-16 • 20-13Final Score: UIC 92-79 Murray State
Murray State 54.1%UIC 45.9%
78-80157.7Murray State -2.1The Citadel at Chattanooga • FINAL11-22 • 13-19Final Score: The Citadel 88-85 Chattanooga
Chattanooga 84.0%The Citadel 16.0%
70-82151.9Chattanooga -11.5Stetson at Austin Peay • FINAL12-21 • 22-9Final Score: Stetson 60-69 Austin Peay
Austin Peay 89.6%Stetson 10.4%
71-86157.1Austin Peay -15.9Southern Miss at Texas State • FINAL19-16 • 19-13Final Score: Southern Miss 81-77 Texas State
Texas State 61.1%Southern Miss 38.9%
72-76147.9Texas State -4.1Sacred Heart at Merrimack • FINAL14-19 • 23-11Final Score: Sacred Heart 48-70 Merrimack
Merrimack 86.5%Sacred Heart 13.5%
66-78143.6Merrimack -11.8Longwood at UNC Asheville • FINAL16-16 • 15-17Final Score: Longwood 82-85 UNC Asheville
UNC Asheville 63.0%Longwood 37.0%
74-77150.9UNC Asheville -3.6Northeastern at North Carolina A&T • FINAL8-23 • 11-19Final Score: Northeastern 88-72 North Carolina A&T
North Carolina A&T 64.8%Northeastern 35.2%
76-81157.4North Carolina A&T -5.2THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.