2026–27 Atlantic 10 Men's Basketball Preview: VCU, Saint Louis and a Crowded Chase

2026-10-01

The Atlantic 10 enters 2026–27 with two recent NCAA second-round teams, an established Dayton contender and several programs that look very different from the ones that finished last March. Saint Louis and VCU shared the 2025–26 regular-season title at 15–3; VCU took the conference tournament. VCU brings back Lazar Djokovic and a useful group of perimeter players. Saint Louis's ceiling could change substantially if Robbie Avila is granted another season of eligibility; his case remains pending as of October 1. Those questions frame the race more clearly than last season's final records alone. Official 2025–26 standings · Avila federal court docket

Each of the league's 14 teams will play 18 conference games, beginning December 30. The 2027 tournament runs March 10–14 at Barclays Center. Atlantic 10 schedule announcement

MMH projected order

This is an MMH editorial projection, built chiefly from Blue Ribbon's 2026–27 College Basketball Yearbook Atlantic 10 scouting and forecast (pp. 115–129), official school rosters, and players' 2025–26 production. The Blue Ribbon column makes our disagreements visible; the team sections explain the roster and role questions behind them. The 2025–26 MMH ratings for Saint Louis (66.7), VCU (65.7) and Dayton (59.9) are historical context, not 2026–27 predictions. Projected lineups remain estimates.

The title tier

1. VCU

Djokovic is the league's most convincing returning centerpiece. He averaged 13.2 points and 5.2 rebounds last season and was named first-team All-A-10. Nyk Lewis and Brandon Jennings return in the backcourt; Tyrell Ward and Blake Harper add different types of wing offense. VCU's path to first is easier to see than most teams' because its frontcourt leader is known and its guard options are varied. The risk is asking a collection of new and returning guards to recreate the timing of last March's offense from day one. VCU roster and roster tracker · Conference awards

2. Saint Louis

Trey Green, Amari McCottry, Kellen Thames and Quentin Jones give Josh Schertz a strong group of proven guards and wings. Green made 92 threes at 44.2 percent last season; McCottry averaged 10.5 points and 5.3 rebounds. Robbie Avila's status is unresolved. He is seeking a fifth year of eligibility in court, with a federal case filed September 29. If he can return and fit within the roster rules, his passing and offensive command would give Saint Louis a familiar center of gravity and a stronger case for first place. If he cannot play, Badara Diakite, Elijah Strong and the other frontcourt options can make this team good in different ways, but the offense will need a new organizing principle. Our second-place projection is provisional until his status is settled. Federal court docket · Saint Louis roster · 2025–26 statistics

3. Dayton

Amaël L'Etang averaged 11.9 points and 5.9 rebounds while making 35 threes last season, an unusual set of tools for a 7-foot-1 forward. Travis Perry, Landen Joseph and Zaide Lowery should give Dayton more than one route into its offense. Jalen Haynes adds size and interior scoring potential. These pieces make another top-four finish plausible, but Anthony Grant has decisions to make about ballhandling and defensive combinations. If the guards produce efficient shots without compromising Dayton's physical baseline, third will be conservative. Dayton roster · 2025–26 statistics

4. George Mason

Baraka Okojie returns to Fairfax after earning first-team All-SoCon recognition at Mercer. Brayden O'Connor, injured early last season, offers another experienced guard if fully healthy. Emmett Adair, Michael Marcus Jr., Lilian Marville and James Nnaji give Tony Skinn multiple ways to build around them. The ceiling is high, especially on defense and the glass. There is also more uncertainty in the roles than a list of names suggests: how Okojie shares creation and how the new frontcourt fits together will decide whether Mason crashes the top two. Okojie return · Marcus signing · Nnaji signing

The teams that could change the race

5. Saint Joseph's

Jaiden Glover-Toscano returns after a second-team All-A-10 season, and Austin Williford brings a credible second-year leap after averaging 7.8 points and 4.7 rebounds as a freshman. The roster adds Logan Carey, Luis Nonfon and Sean Logan. Saint Joseph's can defend and has a high-end wing scorer; the question is whether the new guard and frontcourt roles generate enough reliable offense against the league's best teams. Hawks roster · Williford bio

6. Davidson

Josh Scovens, Sam Brown, Nick Coval and Ian Platteeuw give Davidson continuity that was scarce in the previous offseason. Nick Janowski brings a new scoring option after a strong season at St. Thomas. Scovens supplies versatile defense, while Platteeuw can pass from the middle. Davidson finished 10–8 in league play last season. We put the Wildcats one place above Blue Ribbon because the returning core and a more physical group create a clearer floor than some transfer-heavy rivals. Davidson roster · Official standings

7. George Washington

GW announced 11 newcomers. Omari Witherspoon and Jalen Rougier-Roane return, with Jean Aranguren, Terrance Arceneaux and a larger frontcourt joining them. This is enough individual ability for a top-four challenge, particularly if Witherspoon grows into a central role. Our seventh-place call is about how quickly a new rotation finds ball movement and defensive trust. Blue Ribbon has GW sixth; this is a small difference in a tightly packed second tier. GW newcomer announcement · GW roster

8. Richmond

Amon Dörries arrived from Bucknell after an All-Patriot League freshman season. Collin Tanner returns, and Derin Saran, Jamie Kaiser Jr. and Andrew Ball give the Spiders several ways to fill out the lineup. Dörries could be a major upgrade as a scorer and passer inside Richmond's system. The risk is fitting a new starting group around him quickly enough to win close league games. We see genuine upper-division upside. Dörries signing · Richmond roster

9. Duquesne

Tarence Guinyard averaged 16.6 points in 2025–26 and remains one of the league's most dangerous lead guards. Duquesne announced six returners and ten newcomers, including Izaiah Pasha, Stephen Olowoniyi and Ege Demir. Guinyard can keep the offense viable while the new group learns, but the supporting cast's defensive fit is the variable. This is a plausible top-six team if the new frontcourt settles. Duquesne roster announcement · A-10 statistics

10. Rhode Island

Archie Miller has brought in veteran guards Dylan Williamson and Jonah Hinton, with Jason Fontenet II, Jahmere Tripp and Mouhamed Sow among the other likely contributors. Rhode Island went 7–11 in the league last season. A more dependable half-court attack could move it up several places; we place the Rams one spot above Blue Ribbon because the guard experience offers a route to that improvement. The frontcourt still has to prove it can finish possessions. Rhode Island roster · Official standings

The lower tier has real upside

11. Loyola Chicago

Donald Hand Jr., from Virginia Beach, arrives after averaging 12.4 points at Boston College. Xavier Amos returns, and Jason Schofield adds a productive interior option after averaging 8.0 points and 4.0 rebounds at Marist. That should be enough scoring to beat this projection if the group stays healthy. Loyola's 4–14 league mark last year and another substantial roster reset make its floor difficult to ignore. Loyola roster · Hand bio

12. Fordham

Abass Bodija returns after averaging 7.3 points and 5.0 rebounds. Amir Lindsey, Lateef Patrick Jr. and Jack Whitbourn are among the new options. Fordham finished 8–10 in conference play last season, and the roster's extra size could preserve more of that competitiveness than a 12th-place projection implies. The Rams need their new guards to create good shots consistently. Fordham roster · Official standings

13. St. Bonaventure

Mike MacDonald replaces Mark Schmidt, bringing several former Daemen players into a roster that also features Ilia Ermakov and Mason Blackwood. There is a coherent case for an immediate lift if that familiarity translates to the A-10. We are leaving room for the jump in competition and a largely new rotation to take time. Early guard play will tell us whether this ranking is too cautious. Bonnies roster

14. La Salle

Rob Dockery, Jaden Johnson and Noah Collier offer more continuity than the final ranking suggests. The Explorers also have new pieces to integrate after a 5–13 league season. If Collier stays available and the returning perimeter players become more efficient, La Salle can climb out of last. The issue is proving it can produce enough stops and good shots over an 18-game schedule. La Salle roster · Official standings

What to watch

Avila's eligibility is the biggest variable in the title race. VCU has a proven returning interior focal point; Saint Louis has established perimeter scoring and could regain its unusual frontcourt playmaker if Avila is permitted to play. Mason's chemistry is the next hinge: its transfer class can make a fourth-place prediction look timid or take months to cohere. The sixth-through-eleventh-place cluster is unusually fluid. Davidson's returners, GW's newcomers, Richmond's interior upgrade, Duquesne's star guard and Loyola's potential bounce-back each make a credible case to move.

Research note: Official school rosters and league results were checked through September 30, 2026; Avila's court docket was checked October 1. A reader-supplied EvanMiya team-ratings screenshot dated May 29 places VCU, Saint Louis and Dayton first through third among A-10 teams, but its season selector is not visible, so it is only a secondary cross-check here. Blue Ribbon's standings table in the supplied edition appears inconsistent with the conference's official 2025–26 standings; historical records here follow the Atlantic 10. Prior-season statistics describe past production, not expected 2026–27 averages. The editorial order is separate from the site's game-odds formulas.