#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
West Virginia at Cincinnati • FINAL21-14 • 18-15Final Score: West Virginia 59-54 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 74.4%West Virginia 25.6%
65-72137.8Cincinnati -7.2Fairfield at Sacred Heart • FINAL21-13 • 14-19Final Score: Fairfield 92-87 Sacred Heart
Fairfield 60.8%Sacred Heart 39.2%
76-74150.4Fairfield -1.8Iona at Siena • FINAL18-14 • 23-12Final Score: Iona 72-79 Siena
Siena 78.2%Iona 21.8%
66-75141.5Siena -8.9Merrimack at Mount St. Mary's • FINAL23-11 • 15-17Final Score: Merrimack 87-70 Mount St. Mary's
Merrimack 67.4%Mount St. Mary's 32.6%
69-66135.3Merrimack -3.1Canisius at Quinnipiac • FINAL10-21 • 19-13Final Score: Canisius 60-75 Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac 91.8%Canisius 8.2%
62-78139.9Quinnipiac -16.0Rider at Marist • FINAL4-25 • 19-12Final Score: Rider 52-81 Marist
Marist 95.0%Rider 5.0%
57-78135.2Marist -20.7Saint Peter's at Manhattan • FINAL17-12 • 12-20Final Score: Saint Peter's 80-75 Manhattan
Saint Peter's 60.0%Manhattan 40.0%
75-72147.0Saint Peter's -2.6Chicago State at Central Connecticut • FINAL7-25 • 18-12Final Score: Chicago State 67-78 Central Connecticut
Central Connecticut 80.7%Chicago State 19.3%
66-78143.7Central Connecticut -11.5Saint Francis at Mercyhurst • FINAL7-24 • 17-17Final Score: Saint Francis 89-98 Mercyhurst
Mercyhurst 87.4%Saint Francis 12.6%
66-80145.1Mercyhurst -14.1New Haven at Long Island University • FINAL14-17 • 24-11Final Score: New Haven 55-60 Long Island University
Long Island University 84.9%New Haven 15.1%
63-74137.4Long Island University -11.1Le Moyne at Wagner • FINAL15-17 • 14-17Final Score: Le Moyne 78-79 Wagner
Wagner 61.7%Le Moyne 38.3%
71-75145.2Wagner -4.0Stonehill at Fairleigh Dickinson • FINAL12-21 • 11-21Final Score: Stonehill 58-74 Fairleigh Dickinson
Fairleigh Dickinson 63.5%Stonehill 36.5%
65-69134.9Fairleigh Dickinson -3.9UMass Lowell at NJIT • FINAL15-18 • 16-17Final Score: UMass Lowell 56-81 NJIT
UMass Lowell 52.0%NJIT 48.0%
73-74146.6NJIT -0.4Northeastern at Hofstra • FINAL8-23 • 24-11Final Score: Northeastern 63-80 Hofstra
Hofstra 92.8%Northeastern 7.2%
66-84150.7Hofstra -17.7Monmouth at Stony Brook • FINAL19-15 • 17-15Final Score: Monmouth 76-75 Stony Brook
Monmouth 52.9%Stony Brook 47.1%
71-72143.5Stony Brook -0.8Drexel at Campbell • FINAL17-16 • 15-18Final Score: Drexel 60-81 Campbell
Campbell 73.5%Drexel 26.5%
70-76146.8Campbell -6.1William & Mary at UNC Wilmington • FINAL20-12 • 27-7Final Score: William & Mary 85-78 UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington 75.2%William & Mary 24.8%
74-82155.2UNC Wilmington -7.9North Carolina A&T at Charleston • FINAL11-19 • 21-11Final Score: North Carolina A&T 62-78 Charleston
Charleston 86.4%North Carolina A&T 13.6%
71-83153.1Charleston -12.1Elon at Hampton • FINAL14-18 • 13-19Final Score: Elon 79-87 Hampton
Hampton 56.3%Elon 43.7%
73-76149.8Hampton -2.8Mercer at Chattanooga • FINAL19-13 • 13-19Final Score: Mercer 75-79 Chattanooga
Mercer 60.0%Chattanooga 40.0%
80-78158.3Mercer -2.1Stetson at Bellarmine • FINAL12-21 • 13-19Final Score: Stetson 71-92 Bellarmine
Bellarmine 74.2%Stetson 25.8%
77-84161.4Bellarmine -7.4North Florida at West Georgia • FINAL7-25 • 15-17Final Score: North Florida 81-73 West Georgia
West Georgia 79.0%North Florida 21.0%
79-88166.9West Georgia -9.7Jacksonville at Queens University • FINAL12-20 • 21-14Final Score: Jacksonville 84-93 Queens University
Queens University 80.4%Jacksonville 19.6%
76-85160.9Queens University -8.7Florida Gulf Coast at Eastern Kentucky • FINAL16-18 • 11-21Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 74-76 Eastern Kentucky
Eastern Kentucky 53.0%Florida Gulf Coast 47.0%
80-82162.0Eastern Kentucky -1.5Denver at North Dakota State • FINAL15-17 • 27-8Final Score: Denver 78-71 North Dakota State
North Dakota State 83.4%Denver 16.6%
75-87162.1North Dakota State -12.5Omaha at North Dakota • FINAL16-17 • 18-17Final Score: Omaha 73-76 North Dakota
North Dakota 60.3%Omaha 39.7%
76-80155.9North Dakota -3.6The Citadel at Samford • FINAL11-22 • 18-14Final Score: The Citadel 64-78 Samford
Samford 92.9%The Citadel 7.1%
68-85153.3Samford -16.5Lindenwood at Little Rock • FINAL18-15 • 12-20Final Score: Lindenwood 79-74 Little Rock
Little Rock 54.9%Lindenwood 45.1%
74-75149.1Little Rock -0.4Abilene Christian at Utah Valley • FINAL14-19 • 25-9Final Score: Abilene Christian 55-68 Utah Valley
Utah Valley 91.4%Abilene Christian 8.6%
65-82146.7Utah Valley -16.7Ohio State at Maryland • FINAL21-13 • 12-20Final Score: Ohio State 82-62 Maryland
Ohio State 85.4%Maryland 14.6%
80-70150.4Ohio State -10.0Western Illinois at Tennessee Tech • FINAL5-26 • 13-18Final Score: Western Illinois 72-97 Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Tech 92.6%Western Illinois 7.4%
65-81145.5Tennessee Tech -16.4Southern Indiana at UT Martin • FINAL7-22 • 22-11Final Score: Southern Indiana 54-76 UT Martin
UT Martin 87.0%Southern Indiana 13.0%
60-74133.4UT Martin -13.8Morehead State at Southeast Missouri State • FINAL20-13 • 20-13Final Score: Morehead State 70-82 Southeast Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State 72.9%Morehead State 27.1%
71-78149.1Southeast Missouri State -7.6Eastern Illinois at Tennessee State • FINAL13-20 • 23-10Final Score: Eastern Illinois 68-77 Tennessee State
Tennessee State 90.3%Eastern Illinois 9.7%
66-81147.0Tennessee State -14.7Memphis at UAB • FINAL13-19 • 20-12Final Score: Memphis 90-80 UAB
UAB 82.1%Memphis 17.9%
72-83155.0UAB -10.4UC Santa Barbara at UC Davis • FINAL18-14 • 19-14Final Score: UC Santa Barbara 75-85 UC Davis
UC Davis 54.4%UC Santa Barbara 45.6%
76-78153.9UC Davis -1.9Northern Colorado at Weber State • FINAL20-12 • 16-16Final Score: Northern Colorado 88-74 Weber State
Weber State 53.0%Northern Colorado 47.0%
81-82162.9Weber State -1.8Northern Arizona at Idaho State • FINAL10-22 • 13-20Final Score: Northern Arizona 79-73 Idaho State
Idaho State 81.9%Northern Arizona 18.1%
70-80151.0Idaho State -10.0Idaho at Montana State • FINAL21-15 • 18-14Final Score: Idaho 66-73 Montana State
Montana State 63.5%Idaho 36.5%
74-78151.9Montana State -4.6Eastern Washington at Montana • FINAL14-19 • 18-16Final Score: Eastern Washington 82-74 Montana
Eastern Washington 56.5%Montana 43.5%
78-80157.7Montana -1.5UT Arlington at Utah Tech • FINAL18-14 • 19-15Final Score: UT Arlington 84-87 Utah Tech
Utah Tech 56.3%UT Arlington 43.7%
71-73144.6Utah Tech -2.1Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky • FINAL15-17 • 18-14Final Score: Jacksonville State 71-66 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky 73.1%Jacksonville State 26.9%
72-78149.8Western Kentucky -6.4UC Riverside at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL10-22 • 18-16Final Score: UC Riverside 72-78 Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton 80.6%UC Riverside 19.4%
76-86161.6Cal State Fullerton -9.9Cal State Northridge at Cal Poly • FINAL20-14 • 14-19Final Score: Cal State Northridge 97-96 Cal Poly
Cal Poly 53.0%Cal State Northridge 47.0%
84-85169.7Cal Poly -0.9Cal State Bakersfield at UC Irvine • FINAL8-24 • 23-12Final Score: Cal State Bakersfield 62-78 UC Irvine
UC Irvine 96.9%Cal State Bakersfield 3.1%
65-88152.8UC Irvine -23.4Long Beach State at UC San Diego • FINAL10-22 • 23-11Final Score: Long Beach State 74-77 UC San Diego
UC San Diego 86.8%Long Beach State 13.2%
69-82151.2UC San Diego -13.1Tarleton State at California Baptist • FINAL14-18 • 25-9Final Score: Tarleton State 55-56 California Baptist
California Baptist 88.4%Tarleton State 11.6%
66-79144.6California Baptist -12.7Loyola Chicago at Davidson • FINAL9-24 • 20-14Final Score: Loyola Chicago 64-84 Davidson
Davidson 88.4%Loyola Chicago 11.6%
63-78141.1Davidson -14.6THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.