THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayFebruary 5, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Gonzaga at Portland • FINAL31-4 • 15-19Final Score: Gonzaga 80-87 Portland

Gonzaga 96.3%Portland 3.7%

87-67154.1Gonzaga -20.4

Northwestern at Illinois • FINAL15-19 • 28-9Final Score: Northwestern 44-84 Illinois

Illinois 94.6%Northwestern 5.4%

66-85150.2Illinois -19.2

Michigan State at Minnesota • FINAL27-8 • 15-18Final Score: Michigan State 73-76 Minnesota

Michigan State 83.8%Minnesota 16.2%

76-67142.6Michigan State -9.3

Creighton at Georgetown • FINAL15-18 • 13-18Final Score: Creighton 68-76 Georgetown

Georgetown 64.8%Creighton 35.2%

68-73141.3Georgetown -4.6

UCF at Houston • FINAL21-12 • 29-7Final Score: UCF 55-79 Houston

Houston 93.2%UCF 6.8%

67-84151.0Houston -17.4

Oklahoma at Kentucky • FINAL21-16 • 22-14Final Score: Oklahoma 78-94 Kentucky

Kentucky 67.0%Oklahoma 33.0%

78-84161.5Kentucky -6.0

Notre Dame at Louisville • FINAL13-17 • 24-11Final Score: Notre Dame 65-76 Louisville

Louisville 92.0%Notre Dame 8.0%

70-87156.6Louisville -17.1

Texas A&M at Alabama • FINAL20-12 • 24-10Final Score: Texas A&M 97-100 Alabama

Alabama 85.7%Texas A&M 14.3%

79-91169.9Alabama -11.1

BYU at Oklahoma State • FINAL23-12 • 20-15Final Score: BYU 92-99 Oklahoma State

BYU 65.7%Oklahoma State 34.3%

86-82168.2BYU -3.6

Penn State at Michigan • FINAL12-20 • 36-3Final Score: Penn State 69-110 Michigan

Michigan 99.0%Penn State 1.0%

63-95158.7Michigan -31.9

Maryland Eastern Shore at South Carolina State • FINAL9-23 • 10-22Final Score: Maryland Eastern Shore 54-63 South Carolina State

South Carolina State 57.1%Maryland Eastern Shore 42.9%

69-71140.3South Carolina State -1.4

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Grambling • FINAL13-19 • 14-19Final Score: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-64 Grambling

Grambling 69.2%Arkansas-Pine Bluff 30.8%

72-79151.1Grambling -7.1

Furman at East Tennessee State • FINAL22-13 • 23-11Final Score: Furman 71-75 East Tennessee State

East Tennessee State 71.1%Furman 28.9%

71-78148.3East Tennessee State -6.7

Louisiana at James Madison • FINAL11-22 • 18-15Final Score: Louisiana 64-61 James Madison

James Madison 88.4%Louisiana 11.6%

64-77141.1James Madison -13.1

Bucknell at American University • FINAL10-23 • 16-16Final Score: Bucknell 60-59 American University

American University 87.0%Bucknell 13.0%

66-80145.7American University -13.6

George Washington at Saint Joseph's • FINAL19-16 • 24-12Final Score: George Washington 73-76 Saint Joseph's

George Washington 57.5%Saint Joseph's 42.5%

76-75151.3George Washington -1.2

Duquesne at George Mason • FINAL18-15 • 23-10Final Score: Duquesne 71-65 George Mason

George Mason 76.7%Duquesne 23.3%

70-78148.7George Mason -8.0

UTSA at South Florida • FINAL5-25 • 25-9Final Score: UTSA 88-109 South Florida

South Florida 99.0%UTSA 1.0%

64-96160.2South Florida -31.4

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic • FINAL30-8 • 18-15Final Score: Tulsa 78-76 Florida Atlantic

Tulsa 72.3%Florida Atlantic 27.7%

82-77159.3Tulsa -4.8

Army at Colgate • FINAL11-21 • 18-15Final Score: Army 55-69 Colgate

Colgate 86.4%Army 13.6%

70-82152.3Colgate -12.2

Winthrop at Radford • FINAL23-11 • 16-16Final Score: Winthrop 80-78 Radford

Winthrop 60.2%Radford 39.8%

83-81164.1Winthrop -2.2

Longwood at Gardner-Webb • FINAL16-16 • 4-29Final Score: Longwood 86-66 Gardner-Webb

Longwood 85.4%Gardner-Webb 14.6%

84-72155.4Longwood -12.3

Charleston Southern at High Point • FINAL15-17 • 31-5Final Score: Charleston Southern 55-80 High Point

High Point 94.8%Charleston Southern 5.2%

74-93167.3High Point -19.7

Butler at Providence • FINAL16-16 • 15-18Final Score: Butler 87-97 Providence

Providence 66.3%Butler 33.7%

82-86168.3Providence -4.7

Lehigh at Loyola Maryland • FINAL18-17 • 12-20Final Score: Lehigh 84-89 Loyola Maryland

Loyola Maryland 51.3%Lehigh 48.7%

75-76151.3Loyola Maryland -1.6

Navy at Lafayette • FINAL26-8 • 11-21Final Score: Navy 65-50 Lafayette

Navy 80.3%Lafayette 19.7%

75-66141.3Navy -8.7

St. Thomas-Minnesota at South Dakota State • FINAL24-10 • 14-18Final Score: St. Thomas-Minnesota 77-62 South Dakota State

St. Thomas-Minnesota 65.2%South Dakota State 34.8%

78-75153.0St. Thomas-Minnesota -3.1

Youngstown State at Purdue Fort Wayne • FINAL14-17 • 17-15Final Score: Youngstown State 90-61 Purdue Fort Wayne

Purdue Fort Wayne 53.5%Youngstown State 46.5%

75-77152.6Purdue Fort Wayne -1.8

Oakland at Cleveland State • FINAL16-16 • 11-22Final Score: Oakland 78-91 Cleveland State

Oakland 76.8%Cleveland State 23.2%

89-82170.7Oakland -6.5

Wright State at Robert Morris • FINAL23-12 • 22-11Final Score: Wright State 66-72 Robert Morris

Robert Morris 60.3%Wright State 39.7%

76-79154.3Robert Morris -3.3

Green Bay at Northern Kentucky • FINAL18-15 • 20-14Final Score: Green Bay 87-84 Northern Kentucky

Northern Kentucky 70.2%Green Bay 29.8%

76-83158.5Northern Kentucky -7.5

UL Monroe at Old Dominion • FINAL4-28 • 12-21Final Score: UL Monroe 85-79 Old Dominion

Old Dominion 91.1%UL Monroe 8.9%

71-87158.5Old Dominion -15.7

Southern Miss at Marshall • FINAL19-16 • 19-13Final Score: Southern Miss 77-81 Marshall

Marshall 67.8%Southern Miss 32.2%

75-81156.7Marshall -5.9

Troy at Georgia State • FINAL22-12 • 10-22Final Score: Troy 74-63 Georgia State

Troy 76.6%Georgia State 23.4%

79-72150.5Troy -6.8

Texas State at Georgia Southern • FINAL19-13 • 21-16Final Score: Texas State 77-71 Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern 61.7%Texas State 38.3%

76-79155.2Georgia Southern -3.4

Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina • FINAL20-12 • 19-13Final Score: Arkansas State 70-66 Coastal Carolina

Arkansas State 66.9%Coastal Carolina 33.1%

79-76155.7Arkansas State -3.1

Liberty at Delaware • FINAL26-8 • 10-21Final Score: Liberty 75-69 Delaware

Liberty 74.1%Delaware 25.9%

76-70145.7Liberty -6.3

Charlotte at Wichita State • FINAL17-17 • 24-12Final Score: Charlotte 64-74 Wichita State

Wichita State 88.7%Charlotte 11.3%

68-82150.0Wichita State -14.0

North Alabama at Central Arkansas • FINAL9-21 • 22-12Final Score: North Alabama 60-81 Central Arkansas

Central Arkansas 93.3%North Alabama 6.7%

68-86153.7Central Arkansas -18.1

Florida International at Middle Tennessee • FINAL15-17 • 17-15Final Score: Florida International 88-84 Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee 67.8%Florida International 32.2%

75-81156.2Middle Tennessee -5.2

UTEP at Sam Houston • FINAL11-20 • 22-12Final Score: UTEP 66-70 Sam Houston

Sam Houston 86.0%UTEP 14.0%

69-82151.3Sam Houston -12.9

New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech • FINAL16-16 • 20-14Final Score: New Mexico State 72-63 Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech 60.1%New Mexico State 39.9%

68-72140.7Louisiana Tech -3.8

North Texas at Rice • FINAL19-14 • 13-18Final Score: North Texas 83-86 Rice

North Texas 57.0%Rice 43.0%

72-71143.9North Texas -1.0

Colorado at Baylor • FINAL17-16 • 16-17Final Score: Colorado 67-86 Baylor

Baylor 76.9%Colorado 23.1%

77-86163.0Baylor -8.7

Georgia Tech at California • FINAL11-20 • 22-12Final Score: Georgia Tech 85-90 California

California 89.0%Georgia Tech 11.0%

70-84153.7California -13.8

South Dakota at Kansas City • FINAL16-16 • 4-27Final Score: South Dakota 82-75 Kansas City

South Dakota 81.9%Kansas City 18.1%

85-76160.2South Dakota -8.8

Detroit Mercy at Milwaukee • FINAL17-15 • 12-20Final Score: Detroit Mercy 76-63 Milwaukee

Milwaukee 53.8%Detroit Mercy 46.2%

78-80158.4Milwaukee -1.5

Lipscomb at Austin Peay • FINAL18-13 • 22-9Final Score: Lipscomb 76-87 Austin Peay

Austin Peay 78.2%Lipscomb 21.8%

73-82155.4Austin Peay -9.2

Arizona State at Utah • FINAL17-16 • 10-22Final Score: Arizona State 71-63 Utah

Arizona State 57.0%Utah 43.0%

79-78157.0Arizona State -0.6

Santa Clara at Pacific • FINAL26-9 • 18-15Final Score: Santa Clara 71-56 Pacific

Santa Clara 76.8%Pacific 23.2%

78-72150.2Santa Clara -6.1

San Diego at Saint Mary's • FINAL12-21 • 27-6Final Score: San Diego 60-87 Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's 98.1%San Diego 1.9%

62-87148.4Saint Mary's -25.2

Pepperdine at Seattle U • FINAL9-23 • 21-14Final Score: Pepperdine 81-83 Seattle U

Seattle U 87.9%Pepperdine 12.1%

66-81146.4Seattle U -14.6

Loyola Marymount at San Francisco • FINAL15-17 • 17-16Final Score: Loyola Marymount 84-75 San Francisco

San Francisco 63.0%Loyola Marymount 37.0%

72-76148.4San Francisco -4.0

Clemson at Stanford • FINAL24-10 • 20-13Final Score: Clemson 66-64 Stanford

Stanford 60.6%Clemson 39.4%

70-73142.6Stanford -2.6

Utah State at New Mexico • FINAL29-7 • 26-11Final Score: Utah State 86-66 New Mexico

New Mexico 57.1%Utah State 42.9%

76-79155.1New Mexico -2.9

Washington State at Oregon State • FINAL12-20 • 17-16Final Score: Washington State 64-74 Oregon State

Oregon State 61.9%Washington State 38.1%

74-77151.3Oregon State -3.6

Iowa at Washington • FINAL24-13 • 16-17Final Score: Iowa 84-74 Washington

Iowa 57.0%Washington 43.0%

74-73146.8Iowa -0.7

Vermont at Maine • FINAL22-12 • 8-24Final Score: Vermont 70-76 Maine

Vermont 80.9%Maine 19.1%

71-64135.1Vermont -7.7

Binghamton at UMBC • FINAL8-22 • 24-8Final Score: Binghamton 62-79 UMBC

UMBC 97.0%Binghamton 3.0%

58-80137.4UMBC -22.4

UAlbany at Bryant • FINAL11-20 • 9-22Final Score: UAlbany 65-63 Bryant

UAlbany 58.9%Bryant 41.1%

70-68137.6UAlbany -1.4

East Texas A&M at Northwestern State • FINAL11-21 • 10-21Final Score: East Texas A&M 74-68 Northwestern State

Northwestern State 69.7%East Texas A&M 30.3%

67-73139.7Northwestern State -5.9

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.