THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayFebruary 4, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

St. John's at DePaul • FINAL30-6 • 16-16Final Score: St. John's 68-56 DePaul

St. John's 87.3%DePaul 12.7%

78-67145.8St. John's -10.9

Xavier at UConn • FINAL15-18 • 34-5Final Score: Xavier 60-92 UConn

UConn 94.3%Xavier 5.7%

67-86152.5UConn -19.2

Boston College at Duke • FINAL11-20 • 35-3Final Score: Boston College 49-67 Duke

Duke 99.0%Boston College 1.0%

56-85141.6Duke -29.4

Ole Miss at Tennessee • FINAL15-20 • 25-12Final Score: Ole Miss 66-84 Tennessee

Tennessee 90.4%Ole Miss 9.6%

68-84152.2Tennessee -15.5

Rutgers at UCLA • FINAL13-20 • 24-12Final Score: Rutgers 66-98 UCLA

UCLA 91.8%Rutgers 8.2%

66-82148.3UCLA -16.3

Little Rock at UT Martin • FINAL12-20 • 22-11Final Score: Little Rock 52-55 UT Martin

UT Martin 76.0%Little Rock 24.0%

64-74138.0UT Martin -10.0

Southern Illinois at Illinois State • FINAL16-16 • 23-13Final Score: Southern Illinois 54-50 Illinois State

Illinois State 61.7%Southern Illinois 38.3%

69-74143.2Illinois State -4.7

La Salle at Loyola Chicago • FINAL9-23 • 9-24Final Score: La Salle 61-71 Loyola Chicago

Loyola Chicago 57.1%La Salle 42.9%

70-72141.8Loyola Chicago -2.3

VCU at Fordham • FINAL28-8 • 17-15Final Score: VCU 63-59 Fordham

VCU 77.0%Fordham 23.0%

75-69144.3VCU -5.6

St. Bonaventure at Dayton • FINAL17-17 • 25-12Final Score: St. Bonaventure 70-72 Dayton

Dayton 78.6%St. Bonaventure 21.4%

70-79148.4Dayton -8.9

Western Michigan at Ohio • FINAL10-21 • 15-17Final Score: Western Michigan 71-91 Ohio

Ohio 74.8%Western Michigan 25.2%

75-83158.6Ohio -7.7

Kent State at Toledo • FINAL24-10 • 19-15Final Score: Kent State 75-72 Toledo

Toledo 72.4%Kent State 27.6%

80-86165.4Toledo -6.2

Central Michigan at Massachusetts • FINAL10-21 • 17-16Final Score: Central Michigan 89-95 Massachusetts

Massachusetts 79.3%Central Michigan 20.7%

74-84157.2Massachusetts -10.1

Ball State at Bowling Green • FINAL12-19 • 18-14Final Score: Ball State 52-77 Bowling Green

Bowling Green 88.1%Ball State 11.9%

66-80145.6Bowling Green -14.6

South Carolina at Texas • FINAL13-19 • 21-15Final Score: South Carolina 75-84 Texas

Texas 88.1%South Carolina 11.9%

73-86158.5Texas -13.3

Indiana State at Evansville • FINAL11-21 • 7-25Final Score: Indiana State 84-63 Evansville

Indiana State 71.4%Evansville 28.6%

76-71146.7Indiana State -4.9

UIC at Murray State • FINAL19-16 • 20-13Final Score: UIC 74-81 Murray State

Murray State 54.1%UIC 45.9%

78-80157.7Murray State -2.1

Valparaiso at Bradley • FINAL18-15 • 21-13Final Score: Valparaiso 65-72 Bradley

Bradley 73.3%Valparaiso 26.7%

70-78148.4Bradley -7.4

SIU Edwardsville at Lindenwood • FINAL19-13 • 18-15Final Score: SIU Edwardsville 78-72 Lindenwood

Lindenwood 57.4%SIU Edwardsville 42.6%

70-73143.3Lindenwood -3.0

Drake at Belmont • FINAL14-20 • 26-6Final Score: Drake 90-103 Belmont

Belmont 90.2%Drake 9.8%

71-86156.4Belmont -15.1

Saint Louis at Davidson • FINAL29-6 • 20-14Final Score: Saint Louis 91-82 Davidson

Saint Louis 73.4%Davidson 26.6%

79-72150.4Saint Louis -7.2

Nevada at Boise State • FINAL24-13 • 20-12Final Score: Nevada 87-91 Boise State

Boise State 61.7%Nevada 38.3%

74-78151.5Boise State -4.1

NC State at SMU • FINAL20-14 • 20-14Final Score: NC State 84-83 SMU

SMU 68.5%NC State 31.5%

80-85165.3SMU -5.2

Pittsburgh at Virginia • FINAL13-20 • 30-6Final Score: Pittsburgh 47-67 Virginia

Virginia 92.8%Pittsburgh 7.2%

65-82146.7Virginia -17.4

Air Force at Grand Canyon • FINAL3-29 • 20-12Final Score: Air Force 57-81 Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon 99.0%Air Force 1.0%

56-87143.2Grand Canyon -30.5

Indiana at USC • FINAL18-14 • 18-14Final Score: Indiana 75-81 USC

Indiana 64.4%USC 35.6%

79-77156.4Indiana -2.6

UNLV at Fresno State • FINAL18-16 • 13-19Final Score: UNLV 96-98 Fresno State

UNLV 53.1%Fresno State 46.9%

76-77153.9Fresno State -1.0

Wyoming at San Diego State • FINAL18-15 • 22-10Final Score: Wyoming 63-72 San Diego State

San Diego State 72.2%Wyoming 27.8%

72-79151.1San Diego State -7.6

Wofford at VMI • FINAL19-13 • 5-26Final Score: Wofford 81-67 VMI

Wofford 83.8%VMI 16.2%

81-73153.9Wofford -8.7

South Carolina Upstate at UNC Asheville • FINAL13-19 • 15-17Final Score: South Carolina Upstate 67-76 UNC Asheville

UNC Asheville 71.3%South Carolina Upstate 28.7%

71-77148.6UNC Asheville -6.1

Seton Hall at Villanova • FINAL21-12 • 24-9Final Score: Seton Hall 60-72 Villanova

Villanova 68.3%Seton Hall 31.7%

68-74142.1Villanova -5.4

South Alabama at App State • FINAL21-12 • 19-13Final Score: South Alabama 57-65 App State

App State 69.4%South Alabama 30.6%

67-74141.0App State -6.2

Western Carolina at UNC Greensboro • FINAL15-16 • 15-19Final Score: Western Carolina 78-81 UNC Greensboro

Western Carolina 54.8%UNC Greensboro 45.2%

81-80161.3Western Carolina -0.5

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.