#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Louisville at Duke • FINAL24-11 • 35-3Final Score: Louisville 52-83 Duke
Duke 89.4%Louisville 10.6%
70-83153.2Duke -13.4Arizona at BYU • FINAL36-3 • 23-12Final Score: Arizona 86-83 BYU
Arizona 78.1%BYU 21.9%
84-77161.0Arizona -7.1Michigan State at Rutgers • FINAL27-8 • 13-20Final Score: Michigan State 88-79 Rutgers
Michigan State 89.6%Rutgers 10.4%
80-67147.6Michigan State -13.4Abilene Christian at Tarleton State • FINAL14-19 • 14-18Final Score: Abilene Christian 0-0 Tarleton State
Tarleton State 68.0%Abilene Christian 32.0%
70-76146.2Tarleton State -6.2Central Connecticut at Stonehill • FINAL18-12 • 12-21Final Score: Central Connecticut 59-61 Stonehill
Central Connecticut 55.4%Stonehill 44.6%
70-70139.5Central Connecticut -0.2Wagner at Long Island University • FINAL14-17 • 24-11Final Score: Wagner 0-0 Long Island University
Long Island University 79.0%Wagner 21.0%
68-77144.9Long Island University -8.7Jackson State at Florida A&M • FINAL12-21 • 14-16Final Score: Jackson State 66-65 Florida A&M
Florida A&M 81.4%Jackson State 18.6%
70-81150.9Florida A&M -11.2Alabama State at Texas Southern • FINAL10-22 • 12-17Final Score: Alabama State 64-96 Texas Southern
Texas Southern 69.4%Alabama State 30.6%
72-78150.5Texas Southern -6.2Morgan State at Norfolk State • FINAL14-16 • 15-17Final Score: Morgan State 79-78 Norfolk State
Norfolk State 77.4%Morgan State 22.6%
73-82154.2Norfolk State -9.2Alcorn State at Bethune-Cookman • FINAL9-23 • 17-15Final Score: Alcorn State 73-82 Bethune-Cookman
Bethune-Cookman 89.9%Alcorn State 10.1%
68-83151.7Bethune-Cookman -15.3Alabama A&M at Prairie View A&M • FINAL18-15 • 19-18Final Score: Alabama A&M 0-0 Prairie View A&M
Prairie View A&M 60.6%Alabama A&M 39.4%
74-78151.5Prairie View A&M -4.2Penn State at Ohio State • FINAL12-20 • 21-13Final Score: Penn State 78-84 Ohio State
Ohio State 95.2%Penn State 4.8%
68-87155.2Ohio State -19.3Howard at Coppin State • FINAL24-11 • 7-24Final Score: Howard 0-0 Coppin State
Howard 94.7%Coppin State 5.3%
83-65147.6Howard -18.4East Texas A&M at Lamar • FINAL11-21 • 12-19Final Score: East Texas A&M 0-0 Lamar
Lamar 75.8%East Texas A&M 24.2%
67-75141.9Lamar -8.7New Orleans at Nicholls • FINAL16-18 • 14-19Final Score: New Orleans 80-62 Nicholls
Nicholls 53.0%New Orleans 47.0%
75-77152.4Nicholls -2.1UT Rio Grande Valley at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi • FINAL19-14 • 18-15Final Score: UT Rio Grande Valley 64-55 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
UT Rio Grande Valley 57.0%Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 43.0%
72-71143.0UT Rio Grande Valley -0.2Northwestern State at Stephen F. Austin • FINAL10-21 • 28-6Final Score: Northwestern State 67-69 Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin 93.1%Northwestern State 6.9%
60-78138.7Stephen F. Austin -17.8Wake Forest at Pittsburgh • FINAL18-17 • 13-20Final Score: Wake Forest 76-80 Pittsburgh
Wake Forest 57.0%Pittsburgh 43.0%
76-75150.8Wake Forest -0.5Alabama A&M at Prairie View A&M • FINAL18-15 • 19-18Final Score: Alabama A&M 80-60 Prairie View A&M
Prairie View A&M 60.6%Alabama A&M 39.4%
74-78151.5Prairie View A&M -4.2THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.